Potash Fertilizer Market and Price Analysis
Key themes affecting the potash fertilizer market
High levels of investment by the major producers, including new entrants to the market such as EuroChem, has ensured that there has been a supply surfeit of MOP. Producers initially reacted by curtailing supply, but with the focus on food security following the start of the Covid pandemic, producers have revived mothballed capacity.
The concentration of supply in Belarus, Canada and Russia has added to the uncertainty in 2020 and 2021. The disputed presidential election in Belarus in August 2020 has caused the EU, USA, Canada and the UK to impose sanctions on Belarus, which include potash. Belarus accounts for 20% of global trade. Compounding this uncertainty is the tension between Russia and Europe over the Ukraine, which may lead to sanctions on Russia – which also accounts for around 20% of global trade.
In Q1 2022 global potash markets are more uncertain than at any point over the last 50 years. Climate change and the need to reduce carbon emissions will be a recurring theme for the next 20 years, and plans laid to achieve those goals also need to navigate around geopolitical uncertainties. New potassic fertilizers such as polyhalite are being introduced. Comprehensive data and analysis on global potash markets has never been more necessary to help buyers and sellers, farmers and financiers navigate through these complex times.
| Key Potash indicators |
| | | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 |
| MOP fob Vancouver spot standard | $/t | 219 | 260 | 277 | 212 | 405 |
| MOP fob Baltic spot standard | $/t | 230 | 255 | 268 | 201 | 394 |
| SOP W European spot/contract standard | $/t | 497 | 514 | 498 | 484 | 581 |
| Belarus MOP exports | mln t | 10.7 | 11.0 | 10.3 | 11.5 | 11.5 |
| Global MOP trade | mln t | 52.5 | 53.9 | 50.1 | 53.8 | 57.0 |
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