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European Power Analytics

Receive highly granular analysis of European electricity wholesale markets and of power generation asset value – fully integrated with our full energy spectrum – global coal, gas, oil, clean technologies and carbon.

The growth of widespread wind and solar generation, resulting market design changes and persistent volatility in the global commodities markets have greatly altered electricity price formation in Europe – with the wholesale electricity markets now exercising predominant influence. Regulatory and technology developments also favor this shift. New European Commission-driven regulation calls for more market-based schemes to drive renewables expansion while emerging technologies – such as batteries, power-to-hydrogen, and smart end-uses – foster demand-side participation.

Within this changing business climate, predicting which power assets will succeed and which will struggle requires a more granular understanding of price formation. European Power Analytics provides a detailed forecast of wholesale power prices and of wholesale asset value to 2050 across our outlooks for 20 European countries to help you evaluate the economics of different technologies.

What’s Included

Deliverables
Hourly granularity of power prices and detailed fuel price inputs to 2050


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Merit order curve


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Net revenues for thermal assets, and captured prices for renewables to 2050


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Is European Power Analytics right for you?

Who uses European Power Analytics?
How?

Plant owners and investors

Accurately model the market value of power assets operational dispatch patterns, associated fuel requirements and maintenance schedules with more granular forecast data.

Equipment providers

Better understand how future assets will operate and which innovative technologies will have greater market value – and stronger appeal – for clients.

Fuel suppliers

Understand how future generation by fuel will evolve and the type of flexibility that will be required.

Retailers and demand aggregators

Grow role in Europe’s wholesale electricity markets by keeping pace with the impact of new technologies and new regulation – notably the development of a smart grid – which enable development of more advanced retail offerings, including “time-of-use” pricing and “critical-peak-pricing."

System operators and regulators

System operators play a critical role in the design and operation of capacity mechanisms, and how these interact with wholesale markets.

Critical Questions Addressed

Detailed power price forecast

  • How will prices evolve?
  • Will we see new prices patterns emerge? Will negative prices become more common?
  • How will new technologies (storage, electric vehicles) impact the price curve?
  • What are the implications on demand and retail (e.g. smart offers)?

Implications on power plant value and usage

  • How will price formation impact the market value of power plants and different technologies? How does it differ across markets?
  • Will thermal generation profitability “recover”? How much “missing money” will need to be recovered in CRMs?
  • How will renewable plants that shift to market revenues be impacted?

Implications on generation mix

  • How will price formation impact the fuel mix chain?
  • Will generation and fuel supply portfolios need to evolve?
  • Will flexibility requirements increase?

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Experts

Catherine Robinson

Ms. Robinson has worked on numerous tailored consulting assignments for international oil companies, European utilities, and financial institutions, providing strategic advice and recommendations at the board and senior executive level. She specializes in market fundamentals, hedging, and risk management. Ms. Robinson is the author of numerous IHS Markit reports, which include analyses of the evolution of the European gas and power market and the implications for the strategy of market players; Europe's energy transition; and short- and long-term energy market fundamentals, among other research topics. She was the research lead for a number of Multiclient Studies looking at the long-term future of the European energy systems, including "Strategies for a Lean Europe: Meeting the Energy Efficiency Challenge," "Beyond the flame: The transformation of Europe's heat sector," and "Steady at 50: Balancing Europe's power grid," a study of European ancillary service markets. Before joining IHS Markit, Ms. Robinson held posts at Centrica and in HSBC's Capital Markets division. She holds a Bachelor of Science and a Master of Science from the University of Glasgow and a Master of Science from the University of London, both in the United Kingdom.

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Sylvain Cognet-Dauphin

Mr. Cognet-Dauphin is responsible for the fundamental analysis of power markets across Europe to support asset valuation, retainer services, and Multiclient Studies. He also supervises the European long-term energy demand analysis. Prior to joining IHS Markit, Mr. Cognet-Dauphin was chief analyst at ENGIE's Center of Expertise in Economic and Modeling Studies, where he managed a team of consultants in charge of energy demand assessments, French energy policy and regulation, and operational optimization and analytics studies. He also directed long-term power and gas market assessment for France, Turkey, and African countries. Before ENGIE, Mr. Cognet-Dauphin was senior principal researcher at IHS Markit, where he contributed to consulting assignments related to power and gas markets in the Middle East, North Africa, and Wider Europe. Mr. Cognet-Dauphin holds a master's degree from Ecole de Mines de Paris, France, and attended corporate finance executive education programs at the London Business School, United Kingdom.

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