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EU Energy Forecasts, Strategic Analysis & Insights by Fuel

This service delivers updated news and integrated analysis of Europe’s power, gas, coal and renewables grid in the EU 28 countries. Find power market fundamentals, renewable energy forecasts, power capital costs, competitive benchmarking, long-term strategic analysis, and topical insights into fuel types for each country and on an aggregate level.

Key benefits:
  • Support your strategic planning and investment processes
  • Anticipate shifts in policy, regulation, technology and markets
  • Gain a long-term views of the EU’s energy mix
European Power
  • European power market long-term demand, supply and price outlooks
  • GDP, power demand, installed capacity, annual capacity additions, annual generation by technology and country
  • Assumptions and analysis supporting short-term outlook for fuel and carbon, power prices and spreads
  • Review of EU ETS price drivers—power market dynamics, emissions by sector, offset use and carbon price outlook
  • Short-term outlook for base-load and peak wholesale power prices
  • Impact analysis of key EU and national policy developments on supply/demand fundamentals
  • Electricity demand figures by sector on a yearly, quarterly and monthly basis
  • Country-specific retail price evolution and breakdown
  • Strategic reports on topics relevant to long-term planning processes
  • Country profiles covering policy and market fundamentals

Example: Five-year forecast of France’s gas demand by sector, 2018-2023 (click to enlarge image)

European Gas
  • Report on long-term demand, supply, and price outlooks for eight traded markets and seven oil-linked contracts
  • Short- and long-term sectoral demand outlook and supply projections (LNG, Russia, Norway)
  • Monthly prices for NBP, Zeebrugge, TTF, generic long-term contract
  • Fuel competitiveness comparison of gas versus coal, oil and oil products
  • National and regional storage balances, planned new storage and future flexibility requirements
  • Traded volumes and liquidity at main trading points and insight into regulatory and other changes that might affect liquidity
  • Market fundamentals and commentary on key drivers affecting the five-year market outlook
  • Yearly, monthly, quarterly HDDs and CDDs per country
  • Gas storage utilization data and recent market views
  • Strategic reports on topics relevant to long-term planning processes
  • Developments in fundamentals, industry structure, policy and regulation, infrastructure, historical prices by end-user sector

Example: Impact of cold weather in February 2018 on gas demand in Europe (click to enlarge image)

European Coal
  • Strategic reports/market briefings on Europe’s steam coal market
  • Quarterly review of supply and demand in Europe’s key coal markets with country-level analysis for major demand markets
  • Quarterly assessment of trends that affect the current and future outlooks for gas, coal and oil products – incorporating macroeconomic and price forecasts for gas, including 10 traded markets and 10 import price indices
  • Quarterly review of short-term supply/demand forecasts for major importing and exporting countries and assumptions on and analysis of events affecting the short-term steam coal outlook
  • Country profiles

Example: Europe carbon vs. coal pricing forecast, 2017-2021 (click to enlarge image)

European Renewables
  • Europe’s renewable energy statistics, including support levels for wind, solar, biomass and other technologies, by country and different scales of technology
  • Outlook to 2025 and background data for green certificate prices in Romania, Poland, Nordics, and the United Kingdom
  • Renewable policy updates, market activity (pipeline development of major players in wind, PV and biomass)
  • Outlook to 2040 for biomass, large and small hydro, pump storage, onshore and offshore wind, solar PV and CSP, geothermal and ocean
  • M&A activity analysis and transactions database
  • Overview of top 20 RES owners' portfolios (by country, technology) and top 15 owners of large hydro, wind, solar and biomass
  • Comparative prices and current revenue levels of new-build renewable energy technologies
  • Overview of solar PV development activity during the previous year, including top 20 developers by player, project type and location
  • Executive briefings on industry, technology and competitive trends
  • Analysis and forecasting of geographic, technology, value chain trends
  • Strategic reports/market briefings on key topics

Example: European solar power project activity, H1 2017 (click to enlarge image)

European Scenarios
  • Full modeling results for three scenarios with data
  • Energy demand outlook by sector, fuel and country
  • Power demand, capacity, and generation outlook by country
  • Long-term gas supply/demand outlook by country
  • Long-term energy price outlook by fuel, including key commodity prices (gas, coal, oil, CO2), power prices, and spreads
  • Report on the three IHS Markit global energy scenarios and key drivers of commodity prices and European energy demand and supply
  • Commodity prices, GDP outlook for Europe and the Eurozone, and detailed forecasts for 11 of the largest European economies
  • Base-load and peak wholesale power prices for 14 European countries
PGCR 2018 webinar series

Sample topics:

  • The development of storage in Europe’s power market
  • An overview of recent developments in the European power market
  • An examination of the evolution of the costs of renewables and the levers that affect their cost competitiveness
  • Indian coal imports outlook
  • Unpacking the cost of renewables

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