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Climate and Sustainability Oil & Gas Upstream

Europe Regional Integrated Service

Energy forecasts, strategic analysis, and insights

This service delivers updated news and integrated analysis of Europe’s power, gas, coal and renewables grid in the EU 28 countries. Find power market fundamentals, renewable energy forecasts, power capital costs, competitive benchmarking, long-term strategic analysis, and topical insights into fuel types for each country and on an aggregate level.
Key benefits:
  • Support your strategic planning and investment processes
  • Anticipate shifts in policy, regulation, technology and markets
  • Gain a long-term views of the EU’s energy mix
European Power
  • European power market long-term demand, supply and price outlooks
  • GDP, power demand, installed capacity, annual capacity additions, annual generation by technology and country
  • Assumptions and analysis supporting short-term outlook for fuel and carbon, power prices and spreads
  • Review of EU ETS price drivers—power market dynamics, emissions by sector, offset use and carbon price outlook
  • Short-term outlook for base-load and peak wholesale power prices
  • Impact analysis of key EU and national policy developments on supply/demand fundamentals
  • Electricity demand figures by sector on a yearly, quarterly and monthly basis
  • Country-specific retail price evolution and breakdown
  • Strategic reports on topics relevant to long-term planning processes
  • Country profiles covering policy and market fundamentals

Example: Five-year forecast of France’s gas demand by sector, 2018-2023 (click to enlarge image)

European Gas
  • Report on long-term demand, supply, and price outlooks for eight traded markets and seven oil-linked contracts
  • Short- and long-term sectoral demand outlook and supply projections (LNG, Russia, Norway)
  • Monthly prices for NBP, Zeebrugge, TTF, generic long-term contract
  • Fuel competitiveness comparison of gas versus coal, oil and oil products
  • National and regional storage balances, planned new storage and future flexibility requirements
  • Traded volumes and liquidity at main trading points and insight into regulatory and other changes that might affect liquidity
  • Market fundamentals and commentary on key drivers affecting the five-year market outlook
  • Yearly, monthly, quarterly HDDs and CDDs per country
  • Gas storage utilization data and recent market views
  • Strategic reports on topics relevant to long-term planning processes
  • Developments in fundamentals, industry structure, policy and regulation, infrastructure, historical prices by end-user sector

Example: Impact of cold weather in February 2018 on gas demand in Europe (click to enlarge image)

European Coal
  • Strategic reports/market briefings on Europe’s steam coal market
  • Quarterly review of supply and demand in Europe’s key coal markets with country-level analysis for major demand markets
  • Quarterly assessment of trends that affect the current and future outlooks for gas, coal and oil products – incorporating macroeconomic and price forecasts for gas, including 10 traded markets and 10 import price indices
  • Quarterly review of short-term supply/demand forecasts for major importing and exporting countries and assumptions on and analysis of events affecting the short-term steam coal outlook
  • Country profiles

Example: Europe carbon vs. coal pricing forecast, 2017-2021 (click to enlarge image)

European Renewables
  • Europe’s renewable energy statistics, including support levels for wind, solar, biomass and other technologies, by country and different scales of technology
  • Outlook to 2025 and background data for green certificate prices in Romania, Poland, Nordics, and the United Kingdom
  • Renewable policy updates, market activity (pipeline development of major players in wind, PV and biomass)
  • Outlook to 2040 for biomass, large and small hydro, pump storage, onshore and offshore wind, solar PV and CSP, geothermal and ocean
  • M&A activity analysis and transactions database
  • Overview of top 20 RES owners' portfolios (by country, technology) and top 15 owners of large hydro, wind, solar and biomass
  • Comparative prices and current revenue levels of new-build renewable energy technologies
  • Overview of solar PV development activity during the previous year, including top 20 developers by player, project type and location
  • Executive briefings on industry, technology and competitive trends
  • Analysis and forecasting of geographic, technology, value chain trends
  • Strategic reports/market briefings on key topics

Example: European solar power project activity, H1 2017 (click to enlarge image)

Sample webinars

Sample topics:

  • European gas price dynamics: Finding the floor 
  • Overview of capacity markets and the value of capacity in Europe
  • Deadline looms for a deal: What happens when the Gazprom-Naftogaz transit agreement expires?
  • Biomethane in Europe: Estimating the potential resource
  • The development of storage in Europe’s power market
  • An overview of recent developments in the European power market
  • An examination of the evolution of the costs of renewables and the levers that affect their cost competitiveness
  • Indian coal imports outlook
  • Unpacking the cost of renewables

Follow Energy & Natural Resources Research and Analysis

Experts

Shankari Srinivasan

Shankari has specific expertise in global gas market fundamentals analysis, price forecasting, company strategy and scenario planning. She has authored numerous reports. Prior to joining IHS Markit, Ms. Srinivasan was Head of Energy Fundamentals at Centrica in the United Kingdom. She has covered the European gas market for many years and authored a number of reports as researcher and then leader of the European gas practice at CERA, which is now part of IHS Markit. She has also assessed the European and Russian gas markets with the International Energy Agency. Ms. Srinivasan previously worked at a New York brokerage firm as a corporate equity analyst. She holds three degrees from US Universities, a Bachelor of Arts from Brown University, a Master of Science from New York University, and a Master of Science from University of Pennsylvania. She also holds an Executive MBA from Cranfield University, United Kingdom.

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Catherine Robinson

Ms. Robinson has worked on numerous tailored consulting assignments for international oil companies, European utilities, and financial institutions, providing strategic advice and recommendations at the board and senior executive level. She specializes in market fundamentals, hedging, and risk management. Ms. Robinson is the author of numerous IHS Markit reports, which include analyses of the evolution of the European gas and power market and the implications for the strategy of market players; Europe's energy transition; and short- and long-term energy market fundamentals, among other research topics. She was the research lead for a number of Multiclient Studies looking at the long-term future of the European energy systems, including "Strategies for a Lean Europe: Meeting the Energy Efficiency Challenge," "Beyond the flame: The transformation of Europe's heat sector," and "Steady at 50: Balancing Europe's power grid," a study of European ancillary service markets. Before joining IHS Markit, Ms. Robinson held posts at Centrica and in HSBC's Capital Markets division. She holds a Bachelor of Science and a Master of Science from the University of Glasgow and a Master of Science from the University of London, both in the United Kingdom.

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Sylvain Cognet-Dauphin

Mr. Cognet-Dauphin is responsible for the fundamental analysis of power markets across Europe to support asset valuation, retainer services, and Multiclient Studies. He also supervises the European long-term energy demand analysis. Prior to joining IHS Markit, Mr. Cognet-Dauphin was chief analyst at ENGIE's Center of Expertise in Economic and Modeling Studies, where he managed a team of consultants in charge of energy demand assessments, French energy policy and regulation, and operational optimization and analytics studies. He also directed long-term power and gas market assessment for France, Turkey, and African countries. Before ENGIE, Mr. Cognet-Dauphin was senior principal researcher at IHS Markit, where he contributed to consulting assignments related to power and gas markets in the Middle East, North Africa, and Wider Europe. Mr. Cognet-Dauphin holds a master's degree from Ecole de Mines de Paris, France, and attended corporate finance executive education programs at the London Business School, United Kingdom.

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Coralie Laurencin

Ms. Laurencin specializes in regulation and strategy in European power markets and renewable energy investments. Her work centers on how policy is shaping the energy transition. In particular, she focuses on the European carbon price, the emissions trading scheme (ETS), renewable support frameworks and PPAs, and developing capacity markets.Before joining IHS Markit, Ms. Laurencin developed onshore wind and biomass projects in the United Kingdom with EFRG. Prior to that, she led the regulatory analysis efforts of boutique investment bank Climate Change Capital, focusing on the ETS in London, and was a part of EDF's commodity market analysis team in Paris. She holds a Master in Management from HEC Paris, France.Ms. Laurencin speaks French and English.

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