- Dan Yergin, Ph.D.
CNBC: "Daniel Yergin expects U.S. oil drillers to raise output by more than 500,000 a day this year" - February 9, 2017
Dr. Yergin announces his forecast for the year in light of OPEC and Russia's decision to cut oil production. He says, "We're expecting this year to see U.S. production probably increase from beginning to end by more than 500,000 barrels a day."
BBC: "Davos 2017: Business leaders prepare to temper Trump" - January 20, 2017
Dr. Yergin reassures that the Trump Administration cannot make dramatic clean energy decisions. He states, "Oil and gas production in the U.S. is largely regulated by the states, not by the federal government."
Bloomberg: Iran's Oil Comeback May Already Be Over – June 15, 2016
In this article on Iran’s rapid increase in oil exports after restrictions on oil exports happened in January, Daniel Yergin asks, “The big question for the Iranians is: ‘Are they going to get all the investment they want? Companies are going to be very cautious about making new commitments to Iran. No one wants to run afoul of US sanction law.”
Real Clear Energy: IHS Dan Yergin on Oil, Energy Politics in 2016 – May 26, 2016
Daniel Yergin speaks about the energy industry and IHS business matters: “When things are down, people think they are going to be down forever. Even last year, there was some confidence that things would return to $60 a barrel, and there was shock and surprise to see oil get as low as $26 a barrel. But one has to remember that these markets are cyclical, these forces of supply and demand are very strong. And in fact, the oil price did not start down when OPEC had its meeting in November 2014; it started down under $100 in September 2014. So it’s been going on a long time, a (lower) price has been working; we see it in terms of supply, we see it in terms of demand. Our view at IHS is that in the second half of the year, we'll start to see an oil market that is much more in balance.”
- Atul Arya, Ph.D.
American Association for the Advancement of Science: "Science Policy Faces Uncertainties Under New Administration" - February 17, 2017
In this article, Atul Arya describes the Trump Administration's energy policy as "'more rigs, less regs,'" referring to an increase in drilling, while reducing regulation. He also predicts America's coal industry will decline, stating, "The 'war on coal' is from gas, not from any regulation. If you look at unconventional gas production, we will have vast volumes of natural gas available for the next 25 years at very low prices."
Journal of Petroleum Technology: "IHS: Markets Will Begin to Balance Next Year" - June 12, 2016
Atul Arya outlines the importance of OPEC and Iran's role in raising oil prices. Predicting that the market will not rebalance until the second half of 2017, Arya summarises by stating, "It's a little bit of a chicken and egg situation. If the price doesn't go up, then we don't see production going up. But the price has to stay down for that production to go down because of the reactivity of barrels to price."
HartEnergy: OTC 2016: Return To ‘Good Old Days’ Still Far Away, Analyst Says – May 4, 2016
In this article on the oil supply glut, Atul Arya offers advice for improvement, “Investment in future innovation is what the industry needs to be able to survive at current and future oil prices.”
Houston Chronicle: There’s no easy road for energy - May 2, 2016 (subscription required)
In this article, Atul Arya discusses the impact of falling oil prices on the industry. The deep-water industry "faces severe challenges," he says, because of the long lead times and large costs to develop most offshore projects. Making the situation even more challenging is the buildup in global inventories, which have grown by 1 billion barrels since 2014, when prices recently peaked.
Houston Chronicle: Oil bust could bring about a wave of innovation – April 24, 2015 (subscription required)
Atul Arya suggests lower oil prices will spur new innovations: “It feels like we are at the bottom or close to the bottom. Oil prices are going up, and a sense of a bit of a turning point. Optimism that we can get upstream costs under control and optimism that the demand will pick up. ... It's a resilient industry, so it's not going to go away."
- Lawrence J. Makovich, Ph.D.
Ygrene: "What Fuels America's Growing Demand for Electricity?" - March 6, 2017
In this article, Lawrence J. Makovich argues that electricity demand will be higher than the government anticipates, due to the growth of the manufacturing industry, and its access to low-cost energy.
Bloomberg Markets: "Massachusetts Plan to Fund New Gas Lines Rejected by Court" - August 17, 2016
After the new ruling that electric utilities in Massachusetts could no longer charge ratepayers for new natural gas pipelines, Lawrence J Makovich argues, "We are going to have a problem if we don't have an infrastructure that is expanding as fast as our reliance on gas-fired generation."
Nuclear Energy Institute: World Moving in Wrong Direction on Carbon Reduction Goals – May 25, 2016
In this article, Larry Makovich provides his thoughts on nuclear power and how it plays into the energy industry. "We haven't closed any of this gap between where our carbon footprint is and where we need to be. It doesn't look like we're making much progress. The world is moving away from the carbon frontier it needs to achieve." He argues the United States has made limited progress largely because the shale gas revolution has led to increased reliance on natural gas instead of coal-fired power plants.
CBS News: Indian Point nuclear plant is troubled, but hard to do without – March 17, 2016
In this article, Larry Makovich addresses the possibility of the all-renewable energy plan and importance of having a diversity of power resources. "The critical importance of diversity to stability in power supplies and prices is the 'missing factor' in much discussion on electricity. A diversified portfolio of US power supply is fundamental to a properly functioning electricity system. It is the most cost-effective tool available to manage the inherent risk in power production costs. However, the value of that diversity is often taken for granted, which can end up creating major unintended problems. The ever present potential for price fluctuations, unforeseen supply shortages and other changes in market dynamics all make it prudent to not put all of one's eggs in a single basket."
- Kurt Barrow
Wall Street Journal: "U.S. Oil Exports Double, Reshaping Vast Global Markets" - June 7, 2017
Kurt Barrow offers his input on the US oil glut and its impact on low prices, due to the lift of the ban on oil exports. Barrow states, "The glut of crude around the world, coupled with extremely low prices to rent oil tankers, is upending petroleum flows."
Oil & Gas Journal: "Global market recovery gaining momentum, speakers at CSIS forum say" - February 16, 2017
Kurt Barrow addresses the increasing demand for US oil exports, pointing out the lack of downstream investment in other parts of the world. He states, "European refining margins are weakening from high stocks and import competition. The Middle East is now supplying about 25% of Europe's products, up from about 10% a few years ago. Prices have flattened because of excess supplies and low freight rates. A big question is whether China's demand will make product exports grow further."
Houston Chronicle: How Enterprise Products suddenly became the nation's largest crude exporter – May 14, 2016 (subscription required)
In this article on the impact of US unconventional gas exports on the global economy, Kurt Barrow says, “Most of the oil currently exported is crude that isn't a good fit for the refineries in the US, but volumes should grow when prices recover.”
International Business Times: Lifting US oil export ban will add $1.3tn to government revenues – March 17, 2015
In this article on the economic benefits to the US of lifting the crude export ban, Kurt Barrow remarks, "The decline in global oil prices provides further need to remove the market distortions created by the ban on US crude oil exports and avoid the additional disruption to investment in oil and gas production and its associated economic benefits and jobs growth.”
The American Prospect: The Push to Repeal the Crude Export Ban Shows Shale Companies Are Getting Desperate – October 19, 2015
Kurt Barrow and other experts provide insight into repealing the crude export ban in 2015: “From the consumer point of view, what happens in the oil patch in the US is not really what affects the prices at the pump.”
Kurt Barrow speaks on the global energy mix and demand outlook
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- Bob Fryklund
Business Wire: "As Mexico's deepwater beckons E&P companies, New 'Super Basin' analysis from IHS Markit says onshore Tampico-Misantla Basin has large, untapped potential" - March 3, 2017
In this article, Bob Fryklund addresses research claiming the Tampico-Misantla Basin as a new 'Super Basin.' He explains, "In searching for super basins, we looked for at least 5 billion barrels of oil equivalent (BOE) in conventional remaining reserves in basins that had already produced at least 5 billion BOE. We did a global assessment of basins where our study criteria existed- looking for basins with multiple plays and at least two mature source rocks - basically basins that keep on giving and giving. Existing production indicates that there is extensive existing infrastructure."
Financial Times: "Oil and gas discoveries dry up to lowest total for 60 years" - February 12, 2017
As the discoveries of oil and gas fields have dropped to their lowest point in the last 60 years, production has turned to more difficult fields. In this article, Bob Fryklund explains, "We're solving the problem through tight rocks," referring to shale and other methods.
HidrocarburosBolivia: Optimismo en la clausura del Congreso de YPFB – July 14, 2016
This article discusses the global energy scenario and how Bolivia will play into the growing energy market. Bob Fryklund describes a global scenario in which Russia, the United States and the G5 play a decisive role in the oil, gas and LNG markets. “Al finalizar nuestra jornada, Bob Fryklund, Jefe de Estrategias de Upstream de IHS Inc. cerró las presentaciones del día ayer exponiendo oportunidades y desafíos para un nuevo escenario energético global donde Rusia, Estados Unidos y el G5 (Irán, Irak, Arabia Saudita, Kuwait y los Emiratos Árabes Unidos) tienen un rol determinante en el mercado del petróleo, gas y GNL.”
Midland Reporter-Telegram: Study: US tops world in oil reserves – July 6, 2016
In this article on the impact of shale in the energy market, Bob Fryklund says, “The United States has shifted to a market-maker role. It’s a new, flexible supply.”
Houston Chronicle: Oil prices are rising. But all those jobs aren't coming back. – June 8, 2016 (subscription required)
In this article on rebounding oil prices, Bob Fryklund is quoted as saying that a "full recovery" would do wonders for the economy of Houston and Texas.
The Wall Street Journal: Oil Price Fears Weigh on European Banks – February 15, 2016
In this article on the impact of the decline in oil prices on European banking shares and markets, Bob Fryklund explains some 150 oil and gas companies in North America may now go bankrupt. He adds that large US banks have added millions of dollars to reserves in anticipation that more oil and gas loans will sour.
- Raoul LeBlanc
BIC Magazine: "Industry leaders: Permian Basin will rise again" - June 20, 2017
In this article, experts are beginning to question how long the oil upsurge can last. LeBlanc insists that an important factor is the state of the earth, explaining, "This industry is an earth industry. We're about trying to unlock what's down there in a way that works. So, in that sense, dry holes are the foe."
CNBC: "US shale oil output projected to rise by more than 100,000 barrels a day for a fourth straight month" - June 12, 2017
Recent studies show that production of oil is rising due to increased efficiency of rigs. LeBlanc explains that this may have a limit, stating, "Technology marches in one direction. We're not getting dumber, but some of the cyclical factors will unwind. We'll see more of it particularly as costs continue to rise."
CNBC: North Dakota wakes up to hangover as oil swoons – March 11, 2016
With the drop in crude oil prices, North Dakota’s economy has been in a decline after its decade-long productivity in the industry. "What needs to happen here to reinvigorate this play and generate a bunch of employment is for prices to go up enough to drill bad wells," Raoul LeBlanc says, "In the end, you need volume to drive this."
The New York Times: Hoping for a Price Surge, Oil Companies Keep Wells in Reserve – December 25, 2015
In this article on horizontal drilling in shale fields and the impact of shale on the oil industry, Raoul LeBlanc describes shale: “It’s dry powder. It’s a form of spare capacity.”
Raoul LeBlanc discusses the role of North American supply in the global oil market rebalance.
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- Michael Stoppard
Houston Chronicle: "For LNG, globalization is not dirty word" - March 9, 2017
In an article about the globalization of gas, Michael Stoppard states, "LNG has moved from being a continental or regional business to being a, dare I say, globalized business. It is gas and not oil that will lie at the heart of your global volume growth."
Rigzone: "Petronas CEO: Industry Needs to Advocate for Benefits of Gas" - March 8, 2017
Experts discuss how to increase demand and return on investment for gas. Michael Stoppard suggests focusing on downstream and upstream equally, stating, "If a company just focuses on the highest value part of the chain, then they're not going to necessarily get to where they want to be. I think you can already see a number of major players making significant downstream investment decisions that are not being based on standalone economies, but on thinking of returns through the value chain."
World Oil: North America’s unconventional natural gas resource base continues to expand: IHS – February 18, 2016
In this article on the surplus of US and Canadian natural gas, Michael Stoppard says, “All told, this has significant implications for North American and global energy markets. Domestically, continued low gas prices will improve the competitive position of gas in power generation. It will also validate the decisions of chemical companies that have chosen to build up their operations in North America owing to the low cost of natural gas fuels and feedstocks. On a global scale, continued low Henry Hub prices will contribute to the competitive position of North American exports of liquefied natural gas.”
- Carlos Pascual
New York Times: "Trump's Anti-Nafta Stance is on a Collision Course with Natural Gas" - June 26, 2017
In the article, the effects of Trump's promise to end NAFTA on Mexico are discussed, particularly within the gas industry. Carlos Pascual says that the topic has "created some worry on Mexico's part, and as a result Mexico has looked at its backups and alternatives. But the first screams that would go up if the U.S. were to cut off natural gas shipments to Mexico would come from the oil and gas producers in Texas."
CNBC: "North American trade is powerful in energy despite uncertainty of NAFTA" - March 6, 2017
In response to Mexico's recent bids for offshore exploration, Carlos Pascual said, "It will give them an opportunity to bring international technology and capital in to develop Mexico's deepwater. Pemex never could have developed that."
CNBC: The next president must be prepared to act on the Middle East – July 14, 2016
In this article, Carlos Pascual contends the energy industry and conflict in the Middle East will be a major issue for the next president of the United States. Foreign policy must address the scenario where the numbers of terrorist attacks continue to increase and oil prices do not. He goes on to explain energy consumers worldwide will likely pay as well - with the return of a risk premium to the price of oil. A global oversupply since 2014 has erased the market impact of political risk. When ISIS advanced in Baghdad two years ago, prices spiraled up. But, more recently, ISIS attacks in Baghdad, Paris, Egypt, Turkey, the United States, and Belgium did not raise oil prices.
UPI: IHS: Oil, US leverage may be linked – June 2, 2016
Although there has been a reduction in crude oil prices, global demand may be catching up to the supply growth. Carlos Pascual explains the next US president will shape the next phase of the oil industry in regard to foreign policy, with the return of a link between oil and international affairs, particularly those in the Middle East.
Business Wire: IHS: Risk Premium Expected to Return to Oil Markets in 2017 as Middle East Instability Persists – June 1, 2016
In this article, Carlos Pascual gives his expert opinion on foreign policy as the imbalance between supply and demand in the industry continues to drop the price of oil. “For the next US president, no foreign policy choice will be more important than deciding whether and how to end this reordered stalemate of conflict. Middle East instability drives international terrorism, the flow of refugees and adds a risk premium to the price of oil.”
- Jim Burkhard
Houston Chronicle: "Doubts on OPEC send crude below $50" - March 9, 2017
In this article, crude oil prices fell below $50, as a result of OPEC showing no slowing of production. Jim Burkhard explains this, stating, "Investors don't have endless patience. The ones with weak conviction are getting out now."
CNBC: "Exxon and other big oil players have a plan to make a lot of money off cheap oil in the United States" - March 3, 2017
Jim Burkhard discusses the improvements made in drilling, stating, "The Permian has been around for a long, long time. It never left the stage, but its career has been relaunched. They understand the geology better, and there's a lot more oil to unlock there. It's the repercussion of the great revolution and the drilling that took place and everything that's been learned over the last decade. This is part of the reaction that we're seeing in the global oil market."
New York Times: In Doha, Major Oil Exporters Fail to Agree on Production Freeze – April 17, 2016
With many countries in the Middle East refusing to cap costs on oil production, the drop in oil prices and stocks continues. Jim Burkhard discusses the link between the industry and world affairs: “This is the new world of oil. The oil market is a reflection of the world. Power is more decentralized.”
CNBC: US oil industry buckling up for biggest production cuts – February 22, 2016
As the United States begins to cut production of crude oil as the price per barrel continues to drop, Jim Burkhard observes, “Nowhere else in the world have we seen that type of swing down."
Financial Times: Oil: US shale’s big squeeze (subscription required)
“The cost of drilling new wells has plummeted in US shale, but not by as much as the oil price,” Jim Burkhard says, “$30 oil is suffocating.”
Jim Burkhard talks about oil price recovery from now through 2018
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- Roger Diwan
Independent: "Oil price slumps 5% as OPEC deal leaves questions unanswered" - May 26, 2017
Under the announcement in Vienna that OPEC would be extending its supply cuts until March 2018, Roger Diwan stated, "OPEC is settling in for the long haul. I think we'll remain between $50 and $60 a barrel for the time being."
New York Times: "OPEC, Fighting Market Forces, Extends Production Cuts" - May 25, 2017
A connection between OPEC's production cuts, the price of oil, and heighted U.S fracking is made. Roger Diwan expands on this, stating, "The higher the price goes, the more shale operators accelerate production, and the more OPEC has to cut."
The Wall Street Journal: US Oil Companies Crank Up Production in Gulf of Mexico – June 24, 2016
In this article on increased US oil production in the Gulf of Mexico, Roger Diwan explains, “The Gulf surge threatens to prolong the glut of crude that has built up in storage around the US and helped push down prices. The projects are coming faster and sometimes bigger than expected. The ramp-up seems to have accelerated during low prices.”
The Washington Post: What’s behind the global stock sell-off? – January 24, 2016
With the worldwide sell-off of stocks, the decline in the energy industry is seen as a cause for the economic turn over. “Oil is a symptom,” Roger Diwan explains. “It’s a symptom of disappointing emerging-market economies. Low oil prices don’t just reflect oversupply. They also result from soft demand. Because increased demand comes heavily from emerging-market nations, they may be weaker than assumed. Oil may be the canary in the mine.”
Roger Diwan talks about the role of supply in the global oil market
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- Jone-Lin Wang
Financial Post: "'Coal is in decline' and it looks like not even Donald Trump can pull the industry's long-term future out of the fire" - March 8, 2017
This article states the coal industry has been on the rise since Trump's election as the US President. Jone-Lin Wang, however, insists, "You're going to have a near-term tug of war (between coal and gas for market share), but generally speaking, coal is in decline and that, even for Trump, is hard to reverse."
Power-Technology: "Meltdown- can US nuclear compete with shale gas and subsidised renewables?" - March 10, 2015
The possible shutdown of several nuclear plants is discussed, as a result of low energy prices and weakening electricity demand. Jone-Lin Wang argues, "If a plant costs $45 per megawatt hour (MWh) to operate but the market price is only $35-$40 MWh, that forces the operator to shut it down. But three years down the road you have to build a new gas plant to replace it and that costs $70 per MWh to operate and it has a lot more carbon emissions."
- Xizhou Zhou
Chicago Tribune: "Coal on the rise in China, U.S., India after major 2016 drop" - June 26, 2017
In this article, the lift in coal production compared to the previous year's drops is noted. Xizhou Zhou offers, "Coal consumption will continue to increase, mainly driven by Asian countries. We're seeing a recovery starting this year and an increase until the mid-2020s, before you see coal plateau globally."
New York Times: "Despite Climate Change Vow, China Pushes to Dig More Coal" - November 26, 2016
This article states that China's coal production has risen, despite its efforts to decarbonize. Some have claimed that coal use in China peaked in 2013, but Xizhou Zhou claims, "There is still a peak coming. It's still going to increase."
- Shankari Srinivasan
World Oil: "What Gas Glut? Russia's Gazprom Forecasts Growth in Europe" - June 16, 2016
In this article, Russian gas shows growth, despite the global fall in prices. Shankari Srinivasan says, "We expect Russia to focus on a market share approach to selling gas into Europe."
ProJourno: "Pivot to the East? Demystifying the Russia-China Natural Gas Deal" - July 16, 2014
Shankari Srinivasan's states that Russia increased gas deliveries to Europe in 2013, resulting in an all-time record of an increase of 15%.
- Sam Andrus
U.S. News: "The New U.S. Energy Era Will be a Gas" - May 16, 2016
New terminals that will increase overseas exporting of US gas have the possibility to assist in pushing US exports above imports. Sam Andrus says, "It's huge. It's changed a lot of the competitiveness and economic activity for the U.S."
Billings Gazette: "Ultra Petroleum appears headed for bankruptcy" - April 29, 2016
In this article, Sam Andrus explains that lower cost competition has contributed to Ultra Petroleum's near-bankruptcy. Surpluses in gas have resulted in lowering demand, thus resulting in a loss.
