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Energy and Climate Scenarios

The Energy and Climate Scenarios Service supports companies and institutions to understand the energy transition and assess its impact, risks, and opportunities in order to make strategic decisions.

Key questions this service answers:

  • How fast will various transitions take place and change the use of energy types?
  • What are the ways in which the world could move to a low emissions pathway that reaches the Paris Climate agreement goals?
  • What policies and metrics are governments using to affect climate change and air pollution?
  • How and where will hydrocarbons compete if demand declines in the future?
  • What are the technology enablers and costs?
  • How will competitive advantage change?
2021 Energy Scenarios and Net Zero Cases See the different pathways to a net zero future

IHS Markit prepares annually three plausible and integrated long-term energy scenarios to 2050, built by country and sector using experts from across our economics, energy, automotive, agriculture, life sciences, and maritime divisions. Each scenario outlines a unique set of assumptions which include economic factors, geopolitical environment, and focus on reducing global greenhouse emissions (GHGs) through policies and carbon pricing, COVID-19 containment, consumer behavior, among others. Also, IHS Markit prepares annually two net zero cases, which are predetermined outcome of reaching global net zero GHG emissions by 2050 and “backcast” to the present. Each of the three scenarios and two net zero cases has different implications for primary and final energy demand, and for global GHG emissions and temperature paths going forward.

Deliverables include:

  • Energy Scenarios and Net Zero cases data sets, descriptions, and analysis of implications
  • Scenarios signposts
  • Climate policy country profiles for the G20 countries
  • Climate Energy Transition Indices
  • Strategic insights and reports
  • Analytics dashboards
  • Workshops and webinars

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Rick Vidal

Mr. Vidal is responsible for coordinating across the energy, economics and automotive sectors at IHS Markit to continually update the company's long-term energy scenario outlooks, as well as help inform customers of the broad range of dynamics driving the global energy business. He directs research for the IHS Markit Global Scenarios service and is a principal thought leader in IHS Markit's ongoing scenario analysis and development. Before joining IHS Markit, Mr. Vidal worked with Sandia National Laboratories, performing comparative studies of international energy policies and technology programs. Mr. Vidal holds a Bachelor of Arts from Boston University and an Master of Arts from the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University in the United States.

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Paul McConnell

Mr. McConnell is an Executive Director with the Energy and Climate Scenarios team at IHS Markit. His work covers energy and carbon markets, long-term decarbonisation trends, climate policy, and strategic responses to climate change and the energy transition. He is highly experienced in both development of energy and climate scenarios, as well as their application in assessing climate-related risk and opportunity for organisations across the oil & gas, power, industry and financial sectors. Prior to IHS Markit, Mr. McConnell led the climate transition risk team for a leading global sustainability consultancy. He also has many years' experience working in research roles across the energy industry. Mr. McConnell holds an MSc in Global Environmental Change and International Policy from Imperial College, London.

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