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Energy and Climate Scenarios

The Energy and Climate Scenarios Service supports companies and institutions to understand the energy transition and assess its impact, risks, and opportunities in order to make strategic decisions.

Key questions this service answers:

  • How fast will various transitions take place and change the use of energy types?
  • What are the ways in which the world could move to a low emissions pathway that reaches the Paris Climate agreement goals?
  • What policies and metrics are governments using to affect climate change and air pollution?
  • How and where will hydrocarbons compete if demand declines in the future?
  • What are the technology enablers and costs?
  • How will competitive advantage change?

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At the center of the service are Global Energy Scenarios to 2050; three global and fully integrated, plausible future pathways for primary energy by key country and sector. The analysis is based on key assumptions on economic growth, efficiencies, policies, politics, trade, security and technology, resulting in balanced and integrated outlooks for the future global energy mix. The service also provides Low Emissions Pathways to 2050, two pathways that meet the Paris Agreement climate targets based on assumptions related to technologies, efficiencies, carbon capture, nature-based solutions and other mitigating factors.

  • Global Energy Scenarios to 2050 : Three global and fully integrated, plausible future pathways for primary energy by key country and sector. The analysis is based on key assumptions on economic growth, efficiencies, policies, politics, trade, security and technology, resulting in balanced and integrated outlooks for the future global energy mix.
  • Low Emissions Pathways to 2050 : Two pathways that meet the Paris Agreement climate targets based on assumptions related to technologies, efficiencies, carbon capture, nature based solutions and other mitigating factors.
  • Energy Scenarios Signposts : assessment of key near-term trends and events to provide an “early warning system” for potential changes in scenario path (updated three times per year).
  • Global Energy Scenarios Analytics: data visualization tool.
  • Climate country profiles : Information on the G20, Alberta, and California’s approach to climate change and air quality, including emissions data, economy-wide and sector-specific climate change mitigation, adaptation policies and measures, and air quality standards.
  • Country benchmarks : Climate and Air Quality Policy Dataset and Indexes for G20 covering the power, oil and gas sectors.
  • Emissions data and long-term projections: Key emissions drivers and forecasts by scenario.
  • Carbon pricing: Global carbon market, carbon tax and company carbon prices and price forecasts for key cap-and-trade markets in Europe, North America, and Asia.
  • Company intelligence: Inventory of energy company indicators and targets, including emissions, reduction measures, alignment with Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosure (TCFD) recommendations, use of scenarios, and engagements with renewables by oil & gas and power companies.
  • NDC emissions outlooks : Bottom-up analysis of the nationally determined contribution (NDC) to the Paris Climate Agreement that allows comparisons and assessment of the impact on global emissions, measurement of the “ambition gap” in 2030, and projections to 2050.
  • Carbon capture project and policy tracking : Carbon Capture Use and Storage (CCUS) Projects and Policy data for all existing, planned, and pilot projects worldwide.
  • Strategic Insights : exclusive reports on key trends and topical insights.
  • Workshops and webinars

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Expert

Rick Vidal

Mr. Vidal is responsible for coordinating across the energy, economics and automotive sectors at IHS Markit to continually update the company's long-term energy scenario outlooks, as well as help inform customers of the broad range of dynamics driving the global energy business. He directs research for the IHS Markit Global Scenarios service and is a principal thought leader in IHS Markit's ongoing scenario analysis and development. Before joining IHS Markit, Mr. Vidal worked with Sandia National Laboratories, performing comparative studies of international energy policies and technology programs. Mr. Vidal holds a Bachelor of Arts from Boston University and an Master of Arts from the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University in the United States.

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Susan Farrell

Ms. Farrell heads the IHS Markit Energy and Climate Scenarios, which project three different integrated trajectories for oil, gas, coal, wind, solar, nuclear, and other energy sources out to 2050 at a global and key country level. Low emissions outlooks that meet the Paris Climate targets are also included under two different sets of assumptions. These integrated scenarios and low emissions cases provide energy transition outcomes for fuel changes and GHG emissions that include different climate policy, technolgy and cost assumptions. She also directs the Executive Briefings for Energy service, which provides summaries of IHS Markit views across the energy sector and includes Industry Outlook briefings. Ms. Farrell has extensive experience delivering executive and boards of directors presentations discussing the outlook for energy industry drivers, markets, emissions and company strategies. Previously, Ms. Farrell led the global strategy groups of two major energy service sector companies. She lived and worked in Europe for more than 10 years and traveled extensively in Asia Pacific and the Middle East. Ms. Farrell holds a Bachelor of Arts in economics from Brown University and an MBA with a specialization in finance from Boston University, United States.

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