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Foresight Country Risk

Country risk assessment, ratings, and forecasts to enhance intelligence-led underwriting decisions

Foresight Country Risk (FCR) delivers detailed political violence risk assessments that enable insurers to efficiently identify, evaluate, and monitor risks at country, region, and location-specific levels. Our forward looking, intelligence led assessments allow you to customize the analysis focus on specific asset types, locations, industries, and perils.

Our daily updated streamed intelligence, dynamic forecasts, advanced mapping, and location-specific risk ratings on war, terrorism, civil unrest and property risk are critical to insurers looking to reliably benchmark, price risk and manage exposures.

Risk Assessment for Asia Detailed insights using our risk index
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Violent Iraqi protests risk descending into civil war Read the special report
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Our clients rely on our expertise for a wide range of insurable classes of business:

  • Accident & Health
  • Aviation
  • Aviation War
  • Business Interruption
  • Casualty
  • Construction
  • Energy
  • Financial Institutions
  • Kidnap and Ransom
  • Marine
  • Marine War
  • Marine Hull
  • Marine Liability
  • Political Risk
  • Property
  • Terrorism
  • Trade Credit
  • War


Enhance risk selection and technical pricing

  • Quickly select and price risks on a knowledge-led, globally consistent basis 
  • Create auditable reports with relevant risk events, forecasts, ratings, and location- specific intelligence to prepare for peer and executive review
  • Access technical information on specific assets to establish contingent liabilities
  • Generate analytics at an aggregate level to enable colleagues and executives to see the bigger picture

Identify premium opportunities

  • Identify new areas of activity across capital intensive industries
  • Confidently enter new markets with granular risk differentiation and in-depth analysis of exposures
  • Work effectively with aggregation control to optimize limits for new and emerging markets
  • Monitor risks as they evolve over time and understand indicators of change

Set country capacity and limits

  • Evaluate and track global exposures as they evolve rather than on a one-off basis
  • Identify risk accumulation and aggregation across classes of business
  • Assess limits with comprehensive forward- looking industry, political, violent, and credit risk ratings

Negotiate reinsurance

  • Quantify risk to premium ratio across your book of business or portfolio
  • Confidently negotiate rates by leveraging risk differentiation based on peril, occupancy, and location

What’s included:

Insights and Reports
  • Headline Analysis: Daily updates of key risk impact on political and political violence environment in each country – key risk indicators to watch help clients to assess if risks are increasing and decreasing
  • Country Reports and Risk Forecasts: Risk outlook for 211 countries
  • Special Reports: Country Risk Quarterly, topical reports and incident evaluations
  • Bulletins and Newsletters: Daily and weekly intelligence reports by country, industry, risk and asset type
Risks and Ratings, Intelligence Events
  • Intelligence Events: Database of over 2,100,000 risk-relevant incidents and indicators events updated daily, with a history back to 2007
  • Country Risk Scores: One-year risk ratings for 211 countries covering political violence risks – including political, civil unrest, terrorism and war. 

  • Location-Specific Risk Ratings: One-year forward-looking risk score for every 500 X 500 meters globally covering overall political violence, war, terrorism, and civil unrest risks
    • Generate location-specific political violence risk scores for individual assets, exposures by country, region
    • Monitor your locations/events with geo-streamed intelligence for contingency risks
    • Risk score and monitor changes to asset scores as part of regular portfolio evaluations. Incorporate the dataset within your own systems and processes via API.
  • Foresight Location Analytics: Quantify and monitor risks to your global exposures, with location-specific risk scores, intelligence, and analytics. Foresight Location Analytics allows insurance professionals to map and evaluate insured assets globally Upload and score locations on Connect.  Analyze the risk profile of asset schedule or individual locations. Users may upload and score up to 200,000 assets
  • TerrorRisk Targets dataset: Forward-looking analysis and insight into geographic terror risk exposures that can be evaluated on a building-by-building basis, across target types, or by desired political or geographical boundaries—such as city, country, or postal code. TerrorRisk contains global intelligence about thousands of specific terror risk target locations that insurers can use for terrorism exposure location analytics, portfolio risk management, risk proximity analysis, and street-level terrorism risk assessment.
Foresight Security Planning Add On

Foresight Security for detailed assessments of risk to individuals, cargo and transport, and violent crime risks. A&H and specialty teams utilize the deep dive on the security risk environment to more confidently set and review premiums.

Detailed country-level scores quantify death and injury, kidnap & ransom, aviation, ground, marine, and criminal violence risks. Comparable risk forecasts enable more precise portfolio evaluations.

Aviation Risk and Maritime Risk Services Add Ons
These services provide insurers with a deeper dive into high-risk environments globally.

  • Aviation Risk Service: Aviation Risk Service provides aviation risk professionals with detailed risk assessments for high-risk countries so that they can evaluate the security threat environment without being overloaded with information.

    The Aviation Risk Service provides precise analysis and forecasts of specific risks, disaggregated by aircraft type and locations within a country for 42 high-risk countries. The Service helps aircraft operators manage their risks globally, and their insurers to understand and price cover more accurately.

    Aviation-specific risk assessments

    • Insurers’ risk selection and pricing, from major airlines flying into international airports to helicopters servicing oil installations or conducting counter-narcotics operations.
    • Airlines’ route and airport selection for existing or new business expansion. 
    • Airlines’ security mitigation measures (e.g. insurance purchasing, re-fueling, or overnighting policies for crew).

    The Aviation Risk Service is delivered as Excel files, with scores and analysis updated regularly, and intelligence events reported and assessed weekly.

    • Aviation Country Index: Comparable forward-looking aviation scores with monthly changes highlighted for 211 countries
    • Granular scores: Scores for airline, general aviation, civilian helicopters, military fixed-wing, military helicopters, and seizure risks with separate scores for geographical sub-regional hotspots - covering over 42 higher risk countries
    • Granular analysis: Detailed risk briefs providing intelligence rationale and outlook for the aircraft types and regional hotspots covered in the scores.
    • Intelligence events: Curated set of global aviation risk events from the Foresight event stream, both incidents and indicators of risks to aviation and airports, along with analyst judgment as to whether each event justifies changes in risk scores.
  • Marine Risk Assessments 

    The Marine Risk module is delivered as Excel files, with scores and analysis as well as risk notes on attacks or recent risk escalations. Specialized monthly Piracy Monitor Report and the quarterly Marine Risk Report focused on high-risk Persian and Arabian Gulf countries.

    • Marine risk scores by country: We rate cargo and transport risk for marine quantifying the risk of damage or disruption to marine, offshore, port assets from terrorist or piracy, protests, or government seizure for 211 countries. All risks accompanied by risk forecast analysis and ratings score change justifications and history. All score changes can be referenced on CONNECT or by email alerts.
    • Detailed marine/port assessments: We provide a quarterly detailed assessment for offshore risks as well as an assessment of major ports in 12 high-risk Persian/Arabian Gulf countries with risk ratings. Countries include Yemen, Somalia, Iran, Iraq, UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Pakistan, Nigeria, and Venezuela.Detailed quarterly report includes risk ratings by port with assessment of closure risk as well as risk of attack.
    • Piracy Monitor: Monthly update on piracy risk to commercial shipping in the Gulf of Guinea, off Somalia, and the Malay Peninsula. A monthly update on kidnap for ransom, vessel hijackings, cargo theft, and petty theft.
    • Marine risk intelligence events: Curated set of global marine risk events from the Foresight event stream, both incidents and indicators of risks to marine, offshore, port assets, including attacks are reported daily with link to original source material, latitude/longitude coordinates as well as pinpointed on our risk heatmaps on CONNECT. Our events are updated daily (700 per day) although marine risk events are only a portion of the events dataset.
Workflow Tools

Connect: Maximize your subscription content with Connect – our state-of-the-art business intelligence platform

  • Location or Asset-specific Alerts: Create custom alerts based on your own intelligence criteria (e.g. risk type, relevance, keywords, location)
  • Online Mapping: Visualize risk with precise location risk scores for every 500x500 meters that measure Overall political violence risk with detailed scores for Civil unrest, Terrorism and War risk
  • Route risk and custom area scoring: score and monitor routes or project sites with location scoring tool on CONNECT
  • Intelligence events analyzer: Search an online database of over 2,100,000 incident and indicator events, using location, risk type, date, and relevance filters
  • Report Builder: Create and communicate reports with risk content in word, PDF, or email format
  • API delivery available for clients that want to integrate Foresight Country Risk ratings, maps, and analysis into their in-house scoring and pricing systems
Systematized Forecasting Methodology

Through our Country Risk Analysis and Forecasting Team, we run a professional intelligence infrastructure, which includes systemization around analysis processes. This includes extensive risk indicator guidance against which forecasts are made, modeling tools and software as well as data and scenario analysis techniques to support analysts.

We collect intelligence inputs from local and regional media worldwide, social networks and discussion forums, activist and official organization websites, and published data, as well as our extensive human source network. We collect both indicator events that signal change and risk-relevant developments that signal shifting trends.

We have centralized data handling to ensure all intelligence inputs are consistently described and categorized for sector and location-specific risk relevance.

Dedicated Intelligence Infrastructure

Our team of 120 country risk experts works with a team of 200 in-country analysts to leverage dedicated intelligence collection against indicators of change to forecasts risks for 211 countries.

Member Privileges
  • Analyst Access: On-demand access to the Country Risk Analysis and Forecasting team
  • Country Risk Webcasts: Webcasts on key events and trends, with webcasts with leading expert Q&A

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