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Jane's Defence Industry 20YY

Scenario planning for the next 5 years and beyond

The global defense industry is contending with several disruptive global forces that will impact how companies evaluate immediate and future opportunities and risks.

Jane's Defence Industry 20YY from IHS Markit identifies insightful and arguably startling trends likely to emerge and significantly impact the global defense industry over the next 20 years. Combining multi-disciplinary data and expertise, the report's content and takeaways are intended to provide defense officials, executives, lobbyists, strategists, planners and developers with a unique and discriminating perspective on the coming major changes to the global defense industry.

Jane's Defence Industry 20YY will enable you to:
  • Plan and organise for continued mission efficacy by understanding key themes and commonalities characterising coming major changes in the global defence industry
  • Align and deploy resources by evaluating underlying forces and trends driving emerging industry dynamics
  • Enhance readiness and flexibility by challenging existing assumptions and expanding current thinking about future market scenarios
  • Navigate market dynamics by architecting hedging strategies that anticipate disruptive global events driving industry and customer contingencies
  • Sharpen strategic planning by examining catalysts reshaping future military and security environments
  • Position for competitive advantage by generating novel insights needed to shape and capture future opportunities

Find out more


In Defence Industry 20YY’s downloadable report, Jane’s researchers and experts identify five emerging disruptive forces and megatrends expected to reshape the global defence landscape in the immediate and long term future. Three distinct high-level scenarios are also identified in which these emerging forces and trends intersect with existing defence markets. The report covers:

  • Key Themes and Commonalities Across Scenarios
  • Driving Forces and Global Megatrends
  • Common Components of Military and Security Environments to 2035 and Beyond
  • Scenario Overview, Description and Analysis

Test your assumptions about the future of the global defence industry and examine the types of risks, disruptions, opportunities and challenges that are on or just over the horizon. Our qualitative, strategic-level framework scenarios each isolate and explore a dominant driver shaping the future of the global defence industry.

Industry Insurgency

Driver: Tiers of new competitors will enter the export market en force in the early to mid 2020s complicating an already savagely competitive market

Impact: Established providers will need to rethink strategies/business models and weigh difficult decisions over whether to compete, collaborate or combine with new competitors

Divergent Disruptions

Driver: Fast-paced asymmetric technology innovation will meet rapidly shifting end-user requirements

Impact: Return to the “promise and peril” model of technology development will put pressure on industry’s model for innovation and end-users’ capacity to partner with industry, growing tendency towards “big bets” on specific technologies

Failing Frameworks

Driver: Western-led frameworks dominating global geopolitical, economic, security since the end of World War II will transition to a new order that coheres over the next 20 years

Impact: Shifting geo-political alliances and eroding economic, security, governance and geopolitical institutions and frameworks will create new pressure on the global defence industry

Scenario Planning Benefits

Four benefits of scenario planning as a component of strategic planning

  1. Challenge existing or inherited assumptions about the present, observable trends and likely evolutions of current dynamics
  2. Expand the range of alternative outcomes, strategies and policies considered in order to develop frameworks that capture dynamic strategic contexts
  3. Anticipate disruptive events, emerging challenges, threats and opportunities by identifying and tracking signposts that one or more future outcome is more or less likely to come to pass
  4. Identify critical capabilities, strategies, competitions, relationships, technologies etc. relevant in individual or across multiple scenarios
Types of Analysis by Scenario
  • Framing of the key features of the global defence industry and markets under different strategic contexts
  • Discussion of individual scenario dynamics, drivers, uncertainties and implications globally
  • Notable implications of both established and emerging defence industry participants
  • Implications for capabilities in demand
  • Signposts that specific scenarios are more or less likely to come to pass
  • Commonalities across multiple scenarios

The Defence Industry 20YY Study will provide two core deliverables:

  • A written report, including a 10 page summary of key themes and insights that emerged throughout our research and analysis
  • A half day in-person and/or teleconference briefing during which Jane’s team of subject matter experts will brief our findings, which will in turn serve as a catalyst for broader discussions of current, emerging and future challenges and opportunities for defence professionals, companies and organizations
Unrivalled Expertise

The Defence Industry 20YY study is being led by Jane’s Strategic Assessment and Futures Studies (SAFS) Centre. The SAFS Centre’s mission is to help clients in the global defence industry and defence and security communities around the world better cope with uncertainty, complexity and competition through the implementation of alternative analysis tools such as:

  • Scenario planning
  • War gaming/strategy gaming
  • Red teaming
  • Net assessments

The Senior Director of the SAFS Centre, Tate Nurkin, is Research Lead for Defence Industry 20YY. Tate worked closely with subject matter experts from Jane’s Defence Industry and Budgets team as well as subject matter experts in military capabilities, geopolitics, threat analysis and other relevant topics. Expertise was also leveraged from the wider IHS Markit organization including Technology, Economics and Country Risk, Energy and Maritime and Trade, giving you access to expertise that you simply cannot find elsewhere.

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