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Country Risk Models & Scenario Analysis

Intelligence-led scenario modeling and stress testing

The core value of scenarios is to inform planning and prepare organizations for alternative futures, rather than to forecast specific events. Our scenario analysis and modeling solutions are designed to identify realistic and high impact scenarios to help our clients plan against credible futures rather than simply possible ones. We select appropriate scenarios to analyze and model based on consideration of probability, severity and the specific impact it would have on our client. This allows us to support very specific strategic decisions our clients are making and to monitor the evolving probability of key scenarios and outcomes. Some areas we have supported in the past include the impact of election outcomes or governmental changes, security and conflict pathways and impacts, and crisis evolution. Our scenario work draws on strong quantitative and qualitative expertise in risk forecasting and is grounded in the deep knowledge and insight of local dynamics from our regional teams and source network.

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The value of scenario analysis

  • Understand your exposures
  • Anticipate and plan for low probability but high impact developments
  • Monitor changing probabilities and proactively adapt your planning

The IHS Markit difference

We integrate market-leading intelligence infrastructure with a highly systematized methodology and broad industry and subject matter expertise to help us understand the probability of unprecedented or outlier events, capture and quantify social and economic drivers and impacts, and we build models around the predictive intelligence available rather than fitting data to an existing model. Our difference:


  • 200 global analysts and 1,000+ human sources: global political and economic content expertise
  • Forecast oriented: realistic future events, not rerunning the past
  • Intelligence indicators: Allows scenario probability alerting
  • Qualitative and quantitative impacts: mapped to specific business processes
  • Full scan of causal systems: (PESTLE) minimizes blind spots
  • Structured methodology: ties together content with business impact

 


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Offerings

Scenario selection driven by your specific requirements

Build scenarios that are relevant to your business and exposures to test your resilience rather than relying on generic scenarios

Detailed and visualized scenario evolution

Understand what would trigger a scenario and how it would be likely to evolve – provide a map to your teams to work with for planning

Quantified scenario impacts

Understand what the actual impacts would likely be for your business – go beyond ‘best’ and ‘worst case’ assumptions for a more granular view that enables targeted and better planning

Indicators and pathways to enable monitoring of increasing/decreasing probability

Understand how evolving situations are impacting on the probability of different scenarios to give you early warning and enable a timely response from your business

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