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Country Risk Evaluation & Simulation Tools (CREST)

Quantify country risk in financial terms to inform more profitable investment decisions – by sector and project type

Accurate investment and project-specific evaluations of risk, that considers country, sector, and project-type, can unearth investment opportunities that, on first assessment, appear too risky. Our Country Risk Evaluation & Simulation Tools (CREST) solution forecasts and measures the expected financial impact different types of risk will have on cash flows and investment returns. Utilizing our country expertise, sector analysis, and granular risk scores allows you to accurately forecast, quantify, and compare the financial viability of new investments and existing business activities.

Investors, corporate finance & strategy teams, risk management groups, and project and business development groups use CREST to:

  • Quantify country risks, in financial terms, generating specific Net Present Value (NPV) and Internal Rate of Return (IRR) to test potential investments against changing risk scenarios
  • Compare and evaluate different potential investments and projects within a country, across a region, or around the world
  • Identify the risks that are impact future cash flows and target risk mitigation strategies to improve the long-term profitability of investments
  • Monitor and assess evolving country risks overtime to optimize investment strategies and inform the timing of potential exit strategies.

The CREST advantage

Current proxies for country risk, like commonly used sovereign risk indicators, reflect a limited view of commercially relevant risks and don’t account for the significant impact different sectoral risk profiles can have on profitability. CREST integrates the full spectrum of commercially relevant political, economic, legal, tax, operational, and security risks and models their impact on future cash flows by sector, and by project phase. This results in a more accurate and actionable forecast of future cash flows allowing you to precisely value and compare potential investments in a single country, across a region, and around the world.

Deliverables

CREST Answers
Fast and quantifiable country risk adjusted cashflow forecasts, tailored by sector, to evaluate and compare potential new investments.
CREST Scenarios
CREST Answers plus realistic and relevant scenarios, with full model outputs. The Scenarios evaluate the sensitivity of potential and existing investments to changing country risk scenarios.
CREST Model
CREST Scenarios plus full access to model configuration with the ability to change model parameters and input client-specific cashflow data by investment. An expert-led workshop to discuss the appropriate parameters for your sector and investment-types, and to calibrate the CREST tool to your specifications.

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