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Crude Oil Supply Analytics

Drill Down into the Global Crude Oil Supply Outlook

Crude Oil Supply Analytics (COSA) unlocks the detail behind IHS Markit’s global crude oil and condensate production outlook.

COSA supports business development, market and trading analysis, portfolio management, and refinery feedstock planning. The service provides an ability to dig into the components of oil production and understand underlying cost, quality, technical, political and economic assumptions for 21 key countries.

Our forecasts of crude production to 2050 start with technical production potential, derived from IHS Markit modeling of thousands of assets globally, and then layer on the anticipated effects of non-technical factors.

COSA is available as a supply-focused stand-alone offering. However, it may also be used in concert with elements of the Crude Oil Markets Suite - providing significant additional supply detail, with quarterly updates.
Crude Oil Supply Analytics Unlock details behind the production outlook
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5 year global oil supply outlook Where, when, and how much?
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Addressing key workflow needs:

Upstream Production Analysis
  • Understand E&P operator landscape in countries of interest, and compare E&P operators by mix of crude quality, terrain, development stage, etc. for conventional production
  • Compare countries based on size of undiscovered potential
  • Identify countries where increased production is likely to lead to more intense competition for access to upstream assets and oilfield services
Oil Market Analysis
  • Examine IHS Markit assumptions for basins, projects, operators, and geopolitical influences in key producing countries
  • Understand main uncertainties, and identify short, medium, and long-term drivers of global supply
  • Create customized global crude supply curves, considering geography, quality, terrain, price assumptions, etc.
Business Development Planning
  • Identify E&P operators present in key countries
  • Consider how new projects may shift service needs in a given country over time
  • Understand new source production by breakeven levels, terrain types
Refinery Source Planning
  • Quantify forecast production declines/ increases in current source countries
  • Identify potential new crude supply streams
  • Explore trends in crude quality over time – how crude slates are likely to change by API gravity or crude stream
  • Recognize geopolitical triggers affecting supply in key countries – know which signposts to look for

What's Included

Country Profiles

Provide key assumptions and detail on forecast drivers for 21 critical producing countries, with information on:

  • Above and below-ground risk factors
  • Historical and current crude oil and condensate production by terrain
  • Anticipated base decline rate of current production
  • Projects under development (sanctioned and unsanctioned) including on-stream date, volume, and geography
  • Estimate of “yet-to-find”—the amount of undiscovered oil that will be found and developed in the time frame of our outlook
  • Full cycle cost estimate for each component of future supply
  • Breakdown of crude oil quality by API gravity (light, medium, and heavy)
Analytical Tool and Data Files

Provide access to forecast detail and enable the user to slice-and-dice global current and future production by:

  • Cost structure of global production by breakeven price
  • Production by terrain (onshore or offshore by water depth)
  • Crude oil production quality by API gravity
  • Existing and new source production
  • For conventional production: existing, sanctioned, unsanctioned and yet-to-find volumes in our outlook
  • Unconventional (tight oil) production: existing and projected production
  • Major project production by operator (conventional production)
  • Production by geography (sub-play, basin, and country)

Research & Analysis

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