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Crude Oil Supply Analytics

Drill Down into the Global Crude Oil Supply Outlook

Crude Oil Supply Analytics (COSA) unlocks the detail behind IHS Markit’s global crude oil and condensate production outlook.

COSA supports business development, market and trading analysis, portfolio management, and refinery feedstock planning. The service provides an ability to dig into the components of oil production and understand underlying cost, quality, technical, political and economic assumptions for 21 key countries.

Our forecasts of crude production to 2050 start with technical production potential, derived from IHS Markit modeling of thousands of assets globally, and then layer on the anticipated effects of non-technical factors.

COSA is available as a supply-focused stand-alone offering. However, it may also be used in concert with elements of the Crude Oil Markets Suite - providing significant additional supply detail, with quarterly updates.

Addressing key workflow needs:

Upstream Production Analysis

Understand E&P operator landscape in countries of interest, and compare E&P operators by mix of crude quality, terrain, development stage, etc. for conventional production
Compare countries based on size of undiscovered potential
Identify countries where increased production is likely to lead to more intense competition for access to upstream assets and oilfield services

Oil Market Analysis

Examine IHS Markit assumptions for basins, projects, operators, and geopolitical influences in key producing countries
Understand main uncertainties, and identify short, medium, and long-term drivers of global supply
Create customized global crude supply curves, considering geography, quality, terrain, price assumptions, etc.

Business Development Planning

Identify E&P operators present in key countries
Consider how new projects may shift service needs in a given country over time
Understand new source production by breakeven levels, terrain types

Refinery Source Planning

Quantify forecast production declines/ increases in current source countries
Identify potential new crude supply streams
Explore trends in crude quality over time – how crude slates are likely to change by API gravity or crude stream
Recognize geopolitical triggers affecting supply in key countries – know which signposts to look for

What's Included

Country Profiles

Provide key assumptions and detail on forecast drivers for 21 critical producing countries, with information on:

Above and below-ground risk factors
Historical and current crude oil and condensate production by terrain
Anticipated base decline rate of current production
Projects under development (sanctioned and unsanctioned) including on-stream date, volume, and geography
Estimate of “yet-to-find”—the amount of undiscovered oil that will be found and developed in the time frame of our outlook
Full cycle cost estimate for each component of future supply
Breakdown of crude oil quality by API gravity (light, medium, and heavy)

Analytical Tool and Data Files

Provide access to forecast detail and enable the user to slice-and-dice global current and future production by:

Cost structure of global production by breakeven price
Production by terrain (onshore or offshore by water depth)
Crude oil production quality by API gravity
Existing and new source production
For conventional production: existing, sanctioned, unsanctioned and yet-to-find volumes in our outlook
Unconventional (tight oil) production: existing and projected production
Major project production by operator (conventional production)
Production by geography (sub-play, basin, and country)