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Corporate Finance Risk Management Solutions

Maximize investment and growth strategies with strategic corporate financial risk management solutions.

Companies seeking to invest and grow within new markets are increasingly exposed to a complex spectrum of country risks. Both potential and existing investments are coming under even greater scrutiny as many of these risks shift –both in intensity and nature. Corporate finance and planning teams must continually revise forecasts for each of their businesses and are required to incorporate these country risks as part of the financial evaluation and forecast.

Our solutions for corporate finance, planning, and commercial teams provide a credible, independent view of external operational and strategic risks and the tools to integrate those country risk into your financial evaluation. The ability to incorporate country risks into financial evaluation is critical to harnessing risk as an opportunity. Taking account of project specific country risks enables finance teams to more profitably evaluate, compare and select investment opportunities and then monitor and mitigate risks to those investments over time.

Country Risk Premiums A key metric to inform investment decisions
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Solutions

How we have helped corporate finance clients:

Hydropower

The commercial and M&A team at a European based company with interests in Asia, Latin America and Africa uses our country risk applications to evaluate country risk for its current activities and for around 40 potential new locations. Country risk premiums broken down by risk event are estimated each quarter for both greenfield ventures and acquisitions; these consider the client’s evaluation methodology, power market structure in each country and the type of project (dam or run-of-river). Updates take account of latest trends in financial markets that affect capital costs. The client can incorporate in the evaluations the potential for mitigating risk to these investments that are often of strategic importance for the host nation.

International oil and gas company

The corporate planning and treasury group from an integrate energy company needed a consistent, but sub sector specific approach to modelling country risk premiums across their international businesses. In collaboration with the client at corporate HQ and the subsidiary business units, we developed a model to provide a risk premium for investments (greenfield and acquisition) broken down by sub-category in around 40 country locations for upstream, downstream and petrochemical sectors and enabled the user to apply risk mitigation factors where appropriate. The results in the Model measure the expected impact of different risk sub-categories on the cash flows generated by investment projects indifferent sectors & sub-sectors. The Model also shows the contribution of each sub-category to the risk premium calculated for the investment. The model enabled the client to apply a consistent methodology for measuring country risk and assessing mitigation potential across their individual businesses.

Experts

Rob Marshall

Rob developed our Country Risk Investment Model in collaboration with clients from across a range of sectors such as: power generation, transmission & distribution; upstream, midstream & downstream oil & gas; chemicals; telecommunications. Rob is an expert in asset valuation & pricing; investment project assessment; calculation of cost of capital & risk premiums; financial and risk models for individual industrial projects and company accounts & balance sheets; and taxation of oil & gas projects.Before becoming a consultant, he was Corporate Strategy Director for an international aerospace company and Chief European Economist for DRI Europe, a company that later became part of IHS Markit.

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Alexia Ash

Ms. Ash is a quantification expert within the country risk team. She is experienced at using methods including risk indexing, stochastic processes, Bayesian modelling, and regression analysis. She was on the development team for Every Point on the Planet (EPOP), IHS Markit's flagship country risk mapping tool. She has worked on projects for private sector clients to provide probabilistic modelling of terrorist attacks by specific location and time frame; to design methodology to identify percentage probabilities for scenarios affecting food and water security in the Middle East; and to model the impact of economics and country risk on asset investments. Ms. Ash holds a Bachelor of Arts in mathematics, as well as a Bachelor of Arts in political science from the University of Florida in the United States, and Master of Science in global political economy from the London School of Economics (LSE), United Kingdom.

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Chris Suckling, Ph.D.

The Integrated Research works with our experts to combine proprietary data and insights from across economics, country risk, and industry teams to create holistic, forward-looking analysis to help our clients make business decisions. His area of interest lies in assessing the stresses and vulnerabilities of emerging and frontier markets and their interaction with multilateral institutions. Dr. Suckling previously led the political risk analysis team and was responsible for auditing assessments provided by the specialist regional desks, co-ordinating cross-regional outputs, deliberating house views across, and updating the team's political risk methodology. He specializes in assessing political and economic risks affecting clients working in African markets in the areas of market entry and integrity due diligence. Dr. Suckling holds a B.A., M.Sc. and Ph.D. from the London School of Economics.

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Natznet Tesfay

Her areas of specialization include analysis of political developments affecting the offshore energy sector in West Africa, particularly Nigeria; commercial developments, especially in mining, energy, and infrastructure in East Africa; and piracy risks in the Gulf of Aden and Gulf of Guinea. Ms. Tesfay leads the development of the Africa risk indicator and horizon scanning infrastructure, drawing on a range of methodologies such as geospatial analysis and scenario modelling techniques. She supports business growth across the continent, advising C-level executives on market entry, stakeholder engagement and risk management, and African governments on leveraging their natural resource potential for sustained economic growth. In 2017, Ms. Tesfay was named a Young Global Leader by the World Economic Forum. She regularly speaks in major media outlets and at high-level conferences. Previously, at Exclusive Analysis she managed the Africa intelligence team of in-country analysts and sources, as well as Exclusive Analysis's Johannesburg office. She also advised municipal governments on sustainably developing megacities and national governments on the development of free trade zones, foreign policy and the mining sector in East Africa. Ms. Tesfay's degrees include a BA in Government from Harvard University and a MSc in Urbanization and Development from the London School of Economics.

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Alyssa Grzelak

Ms. Grzelak leads a team of economists responsible for the banking sector risk ratings, analysis, and forecasts of the world's most intriguing and hard-to-monitor emerging market financial sectors. Her particular focus is on banking sector risk in the Middle East and Africa region, as well as Turkey. She has over 10 years' experience analyzing financial sector risks in emerging markets and assessing counterparty credit risks. Alyssa originally joined IHS Markit through Global Insight, where she worked as a macroeconomist in the Middle East and North Africa team, with responsibility for the economic forecasts and sovereign risk ratings of several regional economies. Prior to joining IHS Markit, Alyssa worked for the US Department of Defense in Washington, DC and Manulife Financial in Boston, Massachusetts. She studied Economics for a year abroad at University College London. Alyssa graduated summa cum laude with a Bachelor of Arts degree in Economics and International Affairs from Northeastern University.

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Brian Lawson

While dividing his time between London and Valencia, Spain, Mr. Lawson frequently writes on global regulatory developments and financial payments and is a core member of the peer review auditing team for Country Risk Same Day Analysis. He regularly contributes to Global Economics on financial market developments, including the weekly IHS Markit Capital Markets Review, a summary of the latest financial developments and assessment of their implications. He is a mentor and peer reviewer for the Banking Risk Service team. Mr. Lawson joined IHS Markit through Exclusive Analysis, where he became its chief global economist in 2010 following retirement from the investment banking industry after holding multiple senior roles, predominantly in the new issue markets. His most senior roles as a banker were as global head of Fixed Income at ABN AMRO, managing over 1000 staff worldwide, and as head of Global Syndicate and COO Global Markets at Nomura International. In these roles, he undertook successful major business restructuring and refocusing exercises, cost control initiatives and rationalizations. His banking career spanned more than 31 years. In 1998, ABN AMRO was awarded the IFR Eurobond House of the Year award. Mr. Lawson was a board member of the International Capital Market Association for the maximum six-year term and remains a senior advisor. He holds an economics Master of Arts from Downing College, Cambridge, United Kingdom.

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