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CECL: Current Expected Credit Loss

Current Expected Credit Loss model-based alternative scenarios

Are you prepared to implement a CECL solution that includes reasonable and supportable alternative scenarios?

Do you need to estimate future impairment based on scenarios?

Do you need to comply with the accounting requirements under the new accounting standards, CECL?

IHS Markit solution for Current Expected Credit Loss addresses the credit loss estimation and forecasting challenges under the new FASB accounting standard.

Our proven model-based alternative scenario services enable firms to prepare for future economic outcomes, estimate future impairment based on scenarios, gain clarity of future risks within expected credit loss models, and comply with the accounting requirements under the new standard.

Our CECL solution provides clear and transparent alternative scenario narratives and forecast data needed for credit loss analysis and helps you:

  • Gain a broad and deep understanding of what is driving the US national and sub-national economies, future directions and risks
  • Implement risk management via model-based alternative scenarios and portfolio modeling
  • Understand forecasts of future policy actions and the market impacts

The IHS Markit Advantage

  • Regional depth: Economic outcomes down to the MSA/Regional level - 9 Regions, 50 States and all metros
  • Consistency: All models are econometrically derived and historically consistent both top-down and bottom-up
  • Expertise: Award winning forecasts produced by experienced economists using a widely acclaimed model. Forecasts and scenarios are produced via disciplined processes that have passed client and regulatory scrutiny for decades
  • Independent: Un-biased forecasts of the US Economy
  • Wide set of scenarios: Transparency and access to monthly scenario data both national (A1-A8 scenarios) and regional (A1-A3)

What’s Included

Data and Analysis

Delivers reasonable and supportable probability-weighted alternative scenarios and accurate, transparent, and comprehensive forecasts from our proprietary macroeconomic and financial models.

  • National and regional depth and breadth and extensive coverage of economic outcomes down to the MSA/Regional level
  • Access to quarterly (or monthly interpolated) data delivered monthly, both national (Baseline, A1-A7) and regional (Baseline, A1-A2) to provide a broad set of scenarios
  • All models econometrically derived and historically consistent both top-down and bottom-up
Service Benefits
  • Delivery through Connect platform
  • Full model validation for transparency
  • Flexibility and compatibility with vendor platforms
  • Direct access to economists
  • Award-winning models for the most accurate forecasts on the market today

Experts

Chris Varvares

Mr. Varvares has nearly 40 years of experience in macroeconomic modeling, forecasting and policy analysis, as co-head of US Economics at IHS Markit, in his previous role as a principal of Macroeconomic Advisers and as a member of the staff of the President's Council of Economic Advisers (1981-1982); he served as a member of the US delegation to the OECD in April 1982. Macroeconomic Advisers was acquired by IHS Markit in 2017. He and the IHS Markit US economic principals serve as consultants to key agencies of the US and foreign governments, major trade associations, and private corporations, and are widely quoted in the business and financial media. IHS Markit is widely recognized as among the most accurate forecasters of the US economy. Mr. Varvares is a recent past president and a former director of the National Association for Business Economics (NABE). He served as president of the NABE Gateway chapter in St.Louis and is a member of the American Economic Association. He serves as a member of the New York State Economic and Revenue Advisory Board and has participated in the meetings of the Outside Consultants to the CBO, has been a panelist for the World Economic Forum, and he sits on advisory boards for the Olin Business School at Washington University and the Walker School of Business and Technology at Webster University. Mr. Varvares holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from The George Washington University and received his graduate training (ABD) in Economics from Washington University in St. Louis, where he was also a member of the adjunct faculty in both the economics department and the Olin School of Business.

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Joel Prakken, Ph.D.

A thought-leader on US economic outlook, monetary policy forecasts and fixed income markets with over 30 years of experience and expertise as a macroeconomic modeler, Dr. Prakken has developed an unmatched structural-econometric model of the US economy. He co-founded Macroeconomic Advisers which was acquired by IHS Markit in 2017. Prior to founding Macroeconomic Advisers, Dr. Prakken held the position of senior economist at the World Headquarters of the IBM Corporation and before that he served with the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, US. He also has held positions on the faculties of New York University's Graduate School of Business, the Economics Department of Washington University, and the Olin School of Business at Washington University. He is the past president and a fellow of the National Association for Business Economics (NABE). He is also past president of the Gateway Association of Business Economists in Saint Louis. Dr. Prakken has many publications to his credit, including papers written for the Council of Economic Advisers, the American Council for Capital Formation, and the Center for the American Study of Business on topics ranging from tax reform to budget policy to monetary policy to the impact of technology on productivity. He has testified on these topics before committees in both the US House of Representatives and the Senate. Dr. Prakken has participated in meetings of the Outside Consultants to Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, is a past member of the Panel of Economic Consultants to the Congressional Budget Office and is a current member of the advisory committee of the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Dr. Prakken completed his undergraduate degree in economics at Princeton University, and holds an MA and Ph.D. in economics from Washington University in Saint Louis, United States.

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Kathleen Navin, CBE

She joined IHS Markit through the 2017 acquisition of Macroeconomic Advisers, where she joined June 2010. Her primary responsibilities pertain to the US Macro Insights (USMI) service and to special reports and projects that utilize the proprietary macroeconomic model, MA/US. Ms. Navin is the technical lead on the Macroprudential Scenarios Service, coordinating and contributing to the development of scenarios and supporting products. In 2015, she became a member of the National Association of Business Economics' inaugural class of Certified Business Economists. She was a research associate at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City in the division of Macroeconomics and Monetary Policy. Ms. Navin graduated with a Bachelor of Science degree in Economics in 2007 from the University of Missouri, where she went on to earn a Master of Arts degree in Economics in 2008.

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Michael Konidaris

Mr. Konidaris leads the product development for the CECL implementation by financial institutions. His responsibilities include the construction of cross-asset class econometric models, the development of forecasts for Libor, Swap and Corporate Bond rates, and the construction of simulations of global economic scenarios to evaluate the P&L of clients' portfolios. He joined IHS Markit through the 2017 acquisition of Macroeconomic Advisers. He has worked as an economic consultant on the forecasting team at Roubini Global Economics and as a research intern at The Midway Group, a hedge fund specializing in the US residential mortgage market. He completed his military service as a sailor at the Hellenic Navy and co-founded and served at the board of directors of AUEB's Investment and Finance Club, the first ever finance club in a Greek University. Mr. Konidaris holds a Bachelor of Science degree in accounting and finance from Athens University of Economics and Business (AUEB), Greece, and a Master of Arts degree in economics from New York University (NYU), US.

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David Iaia

Mr. Iaia oversees the state, metro, and county forecasts covering more than 300 metropolitan areas and 3,100 counties. He manages staffing and has an active role in development and enhancement of the group's data methodology. Additionally, he is the primary analyst for Virginia, Maryland, the District of Columbia, and Connecticut. He has done consulting work on the cost of doing business in states and for the U.S. Conference of Mayors on the importance of metro areas in the national economy. Prior to joining the company in 1998, Mr. Iaia was a graduate student in economics at Brown University, completing all the requirements but the dissertation. He also holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from Amherst College.

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