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US-China Decoupling Insights

Get a complete view on the impact of the decoupled system that increases disruption for specific countries, sectors and supply chains.

The US-mainland China relationship that has underpinned globalization for decades has begun to unravel, with far-reaching geopolitical and economic consequences for business operations around the world. A dispute that centered around commercial issues of trade, investment, currency, market access, and intellectual property rights as recently as 2018 has rapidly expanded to into a broad political rivalry that encompasses geopolitical alliances, state security, and public health. What will shift in policy and geopolitical relations mean for business between these nations, sourcing opportunities, and growth in existing business? Are you prepared?

Learn more about our work on US China Decoupling We can help you navigate the economic, geopolitical, and trade shifts coming
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Built on a foundation of excellence in custom solutions, and scenario creation

Scenarios
  • Geopolitical scenarios  Understand the political and policy implications from US-China decoupling and how these changes will impact political stability, industry, global economies, supply chains and more.
  • Industry Scenarios   Our experts can help you understand which industries and geographies will feel the consequences of the decoupling.
  • Economic Scenarios  Understand how decoupling will effect commodity prices, exchange rates, monetary and financial policy, energy prices, demographics and more as you build your new strategic plans.
Custom Solutions
  • Economic Impact Do you need to demonstrate a positive jobs and economic impact due to new trade rules? We provide comprehensive assessments that quantify and clearly articulate the economic ripple effect (on jobs, tax revenues, etc.) arising from changes to the status quo.
  • Gov Revenue  Quantify how the china-US decoupling could impact, positively or negatively, your jurisdictions’ capacity to plan, budget and deliver vital public services.
  • Integrity Due Diligence A commercial view on any possible risks you could face with a new sourcing partner, as well as an assessment of the company’s key strengths and weaknesses.
  • Stakeholder Influence Mapping With decoupling comes new partnerships, get an independent assessment of which risks are likely to serve as priorities for potential investors and examples from other jurisdictions on how these risks have impacted inward investment.
  • Economic Impact Do you need to demonstrate a positive jobs and economic impact from new opportunities due to decoupling? We provide comprehensive assessments that quantify and clearly articulate the economic ripple effect (on jobs, tax revenues, etc.) arising from changes to the status quo.
Modelling
  • Country Risk Investment Model Utilizing our country expertise, sector analysis, and granular risk scores we can forecasts and measure the expected financial impact decoupling could have on cash flows and investment returns and activities.

Experts

Natznet Tesfay

Her areas of specialization include analysis of political developments affecting the offshore energy sector in West Africa, particularly Nigeria; commercial developments, especially in mining, energy, and infrastructure in East Africa; and piracy risks in the Gulf of Aden and Gulf of Guinea. Ms. Tesfay leads the development of the Africa risk indicator and horizon scanning infrastructure, drawing on a range of methodologies such as geospatial analysis and scenario modelling techniques. She supports business growth across the continent, advising C-level executives on market entry, stakeholder engagement and risk management, and African governments on leveraging their natural resource potential for sustained economic growth. In 2017, Ms. Tesfay was named a Young Global Leader by the World Economic Forum. She regularly speaks in major media outlets and at high-level conferences. Previously, at Exclusive Analysis she managed the Africa intelligence team of in-country analysts and sources, as well as Exclusive Analysis's Johannesburg office. She also advised municipal governments on sustainably developing megacities and national governments on the development of free trade zones, foreign policy and the mining sector in East Africa. Ms. Tesfay's degrees include a BA in Government from Harvard University and a MSc in Urbanization and Development from the London School of Economics.

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Carlos Cardenas

Mr. Cardenas, Director of Latin America Country Risk Analysis and Forecasting, is responsible for the generation of commercially relevant political and violent risks forecasts for a variety of sectors in Latin America, including energy, manufacturing, mining and insurance. He manages a team of Latin American experts, as well as a remote network of contributors based in the region, covering risks such as expropriation, non-payment, contract frustration, civil unrest, business disruption and security-related risks (extortion, kidnapping, crime and terrorism). Mr. Cardenas has also worked and delivered numerous consulting projects for a variety of clients interested in understanding the role of stakeholders and risks at the project level in Latin America. His areas of expertise include petroleum policy and economics, public governance in natural resource rich countries, international relations, criminal dynamics in Latin America and political economy. He holds a BA in International Studies from Universidad Central de Venezuela (Magna Cum-Laude), an MA in International Political Economy from Birmingham University (distinction) and an LLM in Petroleum Law and Policy (distinction) from Dundee University.

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Firas Modad

Mr. Modad focuses on the conflict between Turkey, the Islamic Republic of Iran and Saudi Arabia and how it shapes security and political risks in the region and terrorism risks in the West. He has also studied the rise of Islamist militant and non-militant groups, their ideology, their capabilities and their communication strategies. Currently, he is focused on the risk of another wave of unrest in MENA, the migrant flows it would trigger and its impact on terrorism. Mr. Modad has briefed executives and directors in insurance the insurance and energy sectors, as well as C-level executives at blue chip firms with interests and operations in MENA. He has helped clients understand the rise of the Islamic State, the conflicts in Libya, Syria and Iraq, risks in Egypt and the conflict between Israel, Iran and the Arabs. Mr. Modad also makes regular appearances on the media, and has been interviewed by Reuters, Bloomberg, the BBC, CNN, ABC News, and others. Mr. Modad holds a Bachelor of Arts in economics from the American University of Beirut, Beirut, Lebanon, and a Master of Science in International Management for the Middle East and North Africa from the University of London in the United Kingdom.

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Keerti Rajan

The Integrated Research team works with our experts to combine proprietary data and insights from across economics, country risk, and industry teams to create holistic, forward-looking analysis that helps our clients make effective business decisions. He has previously led the Asia-Pacific desk and the Political Risk desk for our Country Risk team where he was responsible for the global calibration of political and business risks and development of the Country Risk team's methodology. Before joining IHS Markit, he assessed systemic credit and liquidity risks to UK financial stability for the Bank of England; built stochastic models to forecast capital adequacy for financial companies at Moore Stephens Consulting; and worked in RBS's equity derivatives business.He earned a Ph.D. in political economy at the University of Cambridge with a thesis on the social epidemiology of income inequality in India. His previous academic work compared Indonesia and Malaysia during the Asian Financial Crisis.

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Nathalie Wlodarczyk, Ph.D.

Dr. Wlodarczyk's team is responsible for developing and delivering forward-looking political, industry and economic insight, data and advisory for government and private sector clients to support strategic planning and business growth. Dr. Wlodarczyk has more than 15 years of experience working on both methodology development and assessment delivery for Risk Intelligence, as well as supporting clients in buliding out their own intelligence teams and capabilties. She has supported clients on market entry and risk management for emerging markets for over a decade and has led projects across Africa, the Middle East, Asia and Latin America. She adds particular expertise in analyzing cultural drivers of behavior and decision-making, in particular for mapping of influence groups and dynamics. Dr. Wlodarczyk has a background working in building capacity for conflict resolution in locations with civil conflict, often in Africa. Formerly she was head of Africa Forecasting for Exclusive Analysis, now part of IHS Markit. She has written several articles and book chapters about the impact of belief and culture on behavior in conflict, and she is the author of the book, "Magic and Warfare: Appearance and reality in contemporary African conflict and beyond," published in the US by Palgrave Macmillian. Dr. Wlodarczyk has taught contemporary security issues at UK universities, including the School of Oriental and African Studies (SOAS), University of London, and King's College London (KCL). Dr. Wlodarczyk attained her Ph.D. in War Studies at KCL, and she holds a Bachelor of Science and a Master of Science in International Relations from London School of Economics (LSE), United Kingdom.

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Anna Boyd

She was previously the head of MENA corporate investigations at FTI Consulting where she managed many complex multi-jurisdictional matters in the field of integrity due diligence, asset tracing and litigation support, including in Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Libya.Prior to her move into consulting, she was head of the Middle East and North Africa Country Risk Forecasting team at IHS Markit, responsible for political risk forecasting, scenario modelling and quantitative risk scoring across the whole region. Anna has led on projects including devising a political risk model relating to the security of Qatari food imports, managing a series of in-depth MENA region country studies for a US government client, and war-gaming possible future developments in the Syria conflict. She has provided expert comment to several media outlets including Al Jazeera, Reuters and the BBC. Anna started her career as an Arabic linguist with the Foreign and Commonwealth Office.Anna holds an MA with Distinction in Arabic from the School of Oriental and African Studies, having written her dissertation on 1950s-60s Iraqi poetry. She also holds a 1st class honors degree in Arabic from the University of Edinburgh and studied in Cairo and Damascus. She speaks French and Arabic.

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Laurence Allan, Ph.D.

Since 2015, Dr. Allan has managed the Country Risk regional team for Europe/CIS research, leading analysis and assessment of political and violent risks and their impacts on the business operational environment across the region. He leads the Europe/CIS risk indicator and horizon scanning infrastructure, including using geospatial analysis and scenario modelling techniques. He has supported senior decision makers from diverse sectors on investment and operational issues across the region, including through delivery of bespoke sector and project level consultancy engagements. Previously, he led the IHS Markit Latin America team. Before joining IHS Markit, Dr. Allan was a research analyst at the UK Foreign Office, providing Latin America expertise and insights for UK government policy makers and diplomats, briefing senior officials and ministers, and working with external stakeholders. He previously taught politics and international relations, including at the Institute for the Study of the Americas (University of London) and the Royal College of Defence Studies (London). He has also worked on various projects - including on illegal drug policies, and effectiveness of public service provision - for non-profit organisations focused on Latin America and on Europe, including Transparency International, the Royal Society of Arts, and Amnesty International.Dr. Allan holds a Ph.D in Argentine Politics (University of London), and speaks fluent Spanish and intermediate Brazilian Portuguese.

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