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Climate and Sustainability Oil & Gas Upstream

North America Regional Integrated Service

Energy forecasts, strategic analysis, and insights


This service delivers an integrated view of power, gas, coal and renewables in North America. Find US and Canadian energy market fundamentals and growth forecasts, capital costs, competitive benchmarking, long-term strategic analysis, and topical insights into the North American power grid, natural gas fundamentals, power generation infrastructure, regulation, technology and much more.

Key benefits:

  • Support your strategic planning and investment processes
  • Anticipate shifts in policy, regulation, technology and markets
  • Gain a long-term views of regional energy markets

What’s Included

North American Power & Renewables
  • Comprehensive power outlook to 2050 for six regions, with primers on 21 power markets, each with its own report and one single overview report. Concepts covered include:
    • Underlying economic indicators
    • Power demand
    • New supply capital cost characteristics and LCOE
    • Generating capacity retirements and additions
    • Renewable penetration levels
    • Average capacity factor of generation supply across fuels/technologies
    • Fossil fuel prices at relevant delivery points
    • Emission allowance prices
    • Wholesale power prices (including on- and off-peak average and hourly)
    • Spark and dark spreads
    • Implied heat rates
    • Capacity values
  • Sensitivity cases that explore key uncertainties, including implications of alternative natural gas prices and carbon dioxide (CO2) emission price views
  • State-level build projections through 2030 for wind, solar, biomass, geothermal, small hydro and ocean energy markets
  • Technology cost outlooks for wind, solar and battery energy storage
  • Project-by-project breakdown of the top wind and solar asset owners and their recent activity
  • Topical research reports on emerging power and renewable trends, market and policy developments
  • Announced coal plant retirements, pollution control retrofit projects and conventional power plant transactions
North American Gas
  • Report on short-term (3 years) market drivers and trends, including data set:
    • Forecasts for natural gas monthly prices (Henry Hub and 33 key pricing points)
    • Storage inventories
    • Supply/demand balances
  • Quarterly detailed fundamentals analysis for nine regions and twelve subregions
  • Two-week outlook for US lower-48 storage injections and withdrawals, with analysis of impact on natural gas prices
  • List of newly announced pipeline expansion projects in the US Lower 48 and Canada, including:
    • Estimated capital costs
    • Project scope (e.g., additional pipeline and/or compression)
    • Project flow paths by region, state, and county
    • Project announced in-service date and status
  • Report on long-term (to 2050) market drivers and trends, including data set:
    • Monthly forecasts for natural gas monthly prices (Henry Hub and 33 key pricing points)
    • Monthly storage inventories
    • Monthly supply/demand balances
    • Monthly demand by sector for residential, commercial, industrial, power, and transportation.
    • Play-level production
North American Coal
  • Strategic reports/market briefings on the North American steam coal market
  • Industry-best supply/demand balance sheet, broken out nationally and on a basin-by-basin basis, with monthly and annual numbers, covering:
    • Thermal and met coal production
    • Thermal and met coal exports by port
    • Thermal imports
    • Utility and industrial demand
    • Stockpile outlook for each basin
  • Five-year outlook for US steam coal spot prices, historical US and international steam coal spot market prices, and average prices for coal delivered to US power plants
  • Quarterly review of supply and demand in key coal markets in North and South America
  • Quarterly review of short-term supply/demand forecasts for major importing and exporting countries
Sample Webinar Topics
  • What are the opportunities, challenges and key trends in the stationary energy storage sector in 2020 and beyond?
  • North American natural gas long-term outlook: Growing dependence on international markets
  • Fast Transition: Exploring faster electrification and decarbonization possibilities in North American power markets
  • Summer weather sensitivities: Can the North American natural gas market handle a mild summer?
  • What’s next for battery technology?
  • The most important trends in solar PV and battery energy storage in 2020
  • The impacts of the state of technology on the pathways to a sustainable energy future
  • Captured prices for US wind and solar: What a difference a carbon price makes
  • International steam coal trade: growth slows but uncertainty rises?
  • Winter weather sensitivities: North American gas demand and price expectations in a fully supplied winter wonderland
  • Assessing the US power supply challenge amid a surge in solar development?
  • Path to the next frontier: Business models for renewable energy in emerging markets
  • US battery storage costs: Declines to continue amid surging demand for electric vehicles
  • California’s looming power supply shortfall: What resources are likely to fill the need?
  • Infrastructure additions across the Gulf Coast are breaking down transportation and pricing bottlenecks: What new challenges lie ahead?
  • US corporate renewable procurement surge: Anomaly or sustained trend?
  • North American natural gas and renewable generation: The fight to serve incremental demand
Country Coverage
  • United States (US Lower 48)
  • Canada

Recent Insights

North American power outlook: How will the new supply mix evolve?

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Experts

Samuel Andrus

Bringing prior operational and trading experience in natural gas and power markets. Mr. Andrus is responsible for the North American gas analytics practice that covers modeling of natural gas supply, demand, storage and price, including support of short-, intermediate- and long-term market outlooks. He helps clients to understand the relationship between physical and financial natural gas markets relative to the development of natural gas contracting and hedging strategies. In addition to his focus on gas market fundamentals, he specializes in the operation and commerciality of interstate pipelines and underground storage. He has contributed to numerous IHS Markit shale-related research projects such as "America's New Energy Future," and "Fueling the Future with Natural Gas."Previously, Mr. Andrus provided consulting services to the energy industry and helped start and manage energy trading organizations, overseeing natural gas trading and risk management, including short- and long-term hedging of gas production and fuel supply for full requirements power contracts. He participated in US Federal Energy Regulatory Commission and Canada's National Energy Board regulatory proceedings. He began his career with ANR Pipeline Company where over 19 years he held a range of technical and managerial positions in reservoir engineering, pipeline operations, facility planning, and business development.Mr. Andrus holds a Bachelor of Arts from Adrian College, a Bachelor of Science from the University of Michigan, and an MBA from the University of Detroit, US.

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Meg McIntosh

Ms. McIntosh directs the delivery of data and insight products to clients active in the North American power and renewables markets. Thought leadership and outlooks cover a range of topics, including the US energy transition, renewable supply cost and competitiveness, clean energy policies, corporate clean energy procurement, evolving utility business models and power market fundamentals. Previously, Ms. McIntosh was a director at the Massachusetts Renewable Energy Trust, where she oversaw the Industry Investment and Development Program, making loans to and equity investments in early-stage renewable energy companies and managing the organization's renewable energy certificate contract portfolio position. Ms. McIntosh also worked for PA Consulting, advising energy and financial sector clients on a variety of wholesale and retail energy market issues, including generation asset valuation and development of competitive retail supply business strategy. Ms. McIntosh holds a Bachelor of Arts from Hobart and William Smith Colleges and an MBA from the Yale School of Management.

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Matthew Palmer

He is an expert at developing fundamentals-based supply, demand, and price forecasts and an understanding of the associated risks. He has developed a wide range of analytical models and tools to assess markets, has prepared presentations, and has written reports on the natural gas, electric power, and oil markets. This includes broad industry outlooks, regional analyses, and granular market assessments. He has a deep understanding of oil and gas infrastructure, regional supply and demand, and locational price differentials across the United States and Canada.Before joining IHS Markit, Mr. Palmer was director of fundamentals at Encana, where he was responsible for natural gas and power market fundamentals analysis and oversaw Encana's risk management activities for natural gas. Mr. Palmer began his career with IHS Markit (formerly CERA), where he led the development of natural gas demand forecasts, researched the relationship between oil and natural gas prices, and followed the western North American regional gas market. Mr. Palmer holds a Bachelor of Science and a Master of Science from the University of Massachusetts Amherst, United States.

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Douglas Giuffre

Mr. Giuffre has more than 15 years of energy industry experience, with expertise in supply and demand forecasting, demand response, and capacity markets. He is the lead author of the IHS Markit Northeast Power Market Briefing, PJM Power Market Briefing, and North American Power Market Outlook. Prior to joining IHS Markit, Mr. Giuffre was a research economist at the Beacon Hill Institute, where he specialized in regulatory policy issues, including tax incentives for renewable energy. He holds a Bachelor of Arts from the University of Massachusetts and a master's degree from Suffolk University, United States.

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Shankari Srinivasan

Shankari has specific expertise in global gas market fundamentals analysis, price forecasting, company strategy and scenario planning. She has authored numerous reports. Prior to joining IHS Markit, Ms. Srinivasan was Head of Energy Fundamentals at Centrica in the United Kingdom. She has covered the European gas market for many years and authored a number of reports as researcher and then leader of the European gas practice at CERA, which is now part of IHS Markit. She has also assessed the European and Russian gas markets with the International Energy Agency. Ms. Srinivasan previously worked at a New York brokerage firm as a corporate equity analyst. She holds three degrees from US Universities, a Bachelor of Arts from Brown University, a Master of Science from New York University, and a Master of Science from University of Pennsylvania. She also holds an Executive MBA from Cranfield University, United Kingdom.

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Mark Griffith

Mr. Griffith focuses on long-term strategic energy market analysis, assessing how factors like climate change policy and the competition among fuels and energy technologies can influence market participants' strategic and operational decisions. He is currently investigating the impacts of economy-wide deep decarbonization on the US and Canadian power sectors, and was recently the project manager for the IHS Markit multi-client study "Hydrogen in the Golden State", which assessed the potential role of hydrogen in facilitating a low-carbon economy in California. Mr. Griffith advises a diverse group of clients, including electric and gas utilities, independent power producers, oil and gas producers, government entities, financial investors, and transportation and power equipment manufacturers. Prior to joining IHS Markit he held several senior positions in the energy consulting industry, leading power market analysis, asset transactional due diligence, and integrated resource planning projects for a wide range of clients. Prior to that, he spent 15 years in the electric utility industry, focused on power marketing, risk management, integrated resource planning, regulatory analysis, and fuel planning. Mr. Griffith has sponsored expert witness testimony in Iowa, Kansas, North Carolina, Texas, Virginia, and in private arbitration. He holds BS and MS degrees in Mineral Economics from The Pennsylvania State University.

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Patrick Luckow

Mr. Luckow is experienced in the use of simulation and forecasting tools to conduct economic analysis and long-term scenario planning to support renewable and carbon market analyses. He produces regularly updated allowance price outlooks for the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative and California-Quebec carbon markets. Mr. Luckow also contributes to IHS Markit REC market outlooks, forecasting pricing associated with state renewable portfolio standards. Prior to joining IHS Markit, Mr. Luckow was the modeling lead at Synapse Energy Economics, where he used industry-standard models for resource planning and market forecasting, as well as expert testimony for regulatory proceedings. Mr. Luckow holds a Bachelor of Science from Northwestern University, United States, and a Master of Science degree from the University of Maryland, United States.

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Wade Shafer

Wade Shafer—Director for the Climate and Sustainability, North America Power and Renewables practice at IHS Markit—covers western North American power markets and researches electric power decarbonization strategies. Based in Washington, D.C., he analyzes power market fundamentals—focusing on California and Alberta—and follows policy, technology, and generation trends. His decarbonization strategy work includes renewable generation portfolios that meet hourly electricity demand, resource adequacy in low carbon power systems, hydrogen for seasonal energy storage, electricity demand arising from heating electrification and hydrogen production, and the implications of electric vehicles for the power grid. Utilities, power plant developers, energy and automotive companies, and private equity firms use his work and seek his advice for generation asset valuations, resource and strategic planning, and public policy. Mr. Shafer speaks with and supports all levels of organizations, including corporate executives and directors.Mr. Shafer earned an MS from Johns Hopkins University and a BS from The George Washington University. He has over a decade of experience working in electric power and other infrastructure industries.

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