David Vaucher (00:05):
Okay, well, thank you everyone for joining us. My name is David Vaucher. I lead IHS Markit's North American upstream, onshore, field operations. And I'm coming today from the IHS Markit podcast studio, otherwise known as my kitchen table. So this is a great time for me to just hope that everyone out there that's listening is staying well, your families are healthy and that you're able to stay relatively productive given what's going on. So today I think we've got something very special and certainly different from what we would usually do in this podcast series. And I'm joined by three of my colleagues. So Sheila Moore is the director for the upstream capital cost forum.
Sheila Moore (00:44):
Hi. So I work in the upstream capital cost and we look at how project costs have changed and globally that's pretty much what our service takes care of.
David Vaucher (00:58):
Excellent. And then we've also got I would say a little bit of a counterpart. So Reed Olmstead directs the plays and basins team.
Reed Olmstead (01:08):
Hey, thanks for having me, David. It's largely focused on supply and what the major trends are going on in North America and how that affects capital allocation across the sector.
David Vaucher (01:19):
Excellent. And then finally we have Richard Sanchez who's one of our experts on offshore equipment.
Richard Sanchez (01:26):
Hello, I'm the senior Marine editor for the Petro Data group of suite of products. We focus exclusively on the offshore equipment on the vessels, the rigs, the field installations. And I was interested in doing this podcast because I wanted to hear from some of the other cost people with respect to onshore and offshore of how the costs stand right now. And at what point we might be able to start to see some recovery in spending for the offshore and onshore and what those price points might look like.
David Vaucher (02:05):
Yep. And I think that's actually a good segue into the introduction for this podcast. Now, usually the way we would structure these is we'd have one to three guests, the number might vary, but certainly the topic would be fixed on one area. So we might talk about either onshore or offshore. This is a good way for us to compare and contrast onshore and offshore. And I will say that just to keep things as manageable, and we'll just say apples to apples as possible, clearly onshore is going to be a very U.S. focused. It's going to be unconventional. So we'll speak about the lower 48 and Canada.
David Vaucher (02:39):
When we talk about offshore, it'll be limited to a Gulf of Mexico. And then perhaps as Sheila and Richard deem necessary, they can work in some examples from Canada and Latin America. So with that said, I think what I want to do is just to set the tone for everyone, just go around the virtual room and get everyone's assessment for what they think the situation is for their particular area. So Sheila, can you please walk us through what offshore costs are looking like now and in the near and longer term future?
Sheila Moore (03:10):
Okay. So for our offshore costs, when we look at it even globally, or even North America, it's going to be extremely depressed. And when we look at our forecast going forward, we pay attention to what's happened in the past, the last 2014, 2015 downturn, we saw costs decrease quite a bit. And service companies have been trying to recover back from that decline. And when we get to the end of 2019, we saw that we had a little bit of a price recovery in some markets. And then in the first quarter we had the downturn and the oil price coupled with COVID. And so what we're seeing is any of the gains or price gains that service companies might've achieved since the last down turn are going away. And so they're basically put into a worst position. And so all this combined together, we're going to see changes in overall supply chain.
Sheila Moore (04:11):
So you're going to see changes in your rigs who's going to be able to be there at the end. So with all this changing and companies, we anticipate more will go bankrupt. We're going to have to restructure. And even if we stay around $40 with oil for offshore, the demand is going to be still pretty low for activity. So when we do our forecast going out this year and next year, it's going to be extremely muted and driven by the low demand. We don't see activity ramping back up significantly in the next two years. Our forecasts out for our offshore indices are just below inflation moving out. So, I mean, it's going to be extremely weak market overall for offshore. So it's extremely depressing.
Sheila Moore (05:09):
I don't know if Richard is seeing anything better for the offshore vessel markets, but it's not looking good for offshore in general. And we have gotten a couple of client questions about what would happen if activity does pick up? And so they're all concerned about whether or not there's going to be ample supply ready, especially since they're stacking so many rigs and retirement, they're going to end up retiring more. Will there be a price spike? It's hard to see that happening.
David Vaucher (05:48):
So on that point then, that's a good segue into Richard what you're looking at. I guess there's a two part question, Sheila teed up there. The first one is what are you seeing now in terms of where the utilization is at given the scene that Sheila just set and do you expect that to rationalize downwards then to meet where demand is looking to go?
Richard Sanchez (06:10):
The offshore supply vessels, which is the main market that I focus on, they have direct correlation with the drilling rigs. In fact, they depend on offshore drilling to give them their base of activity and work. They're at the lowest point that we've seen I think ever to be honest. The other comparison might be to the 1984, '85 crash in offshore oil and gas, which hit the market really hard back then. But you still had, in the 85 crash, you still had a large base of activity. So it was largely a jack up market then. In early 84, I think you probably were looking at more than a hundred rigs jack ups working on the offshore Gulf. After the crash, it came down to something like 70 rigs. And so while that was significant, there was still a lot of work there for the vessel owners to do.
Richard Sanchez (07:12):
This time around we've seen a severe constriction in the use of the boats. We've had, in May, we had a huge number of boats that were released from jobs and were mostly sent straight in shore for layup. The vessel owners are suffering probably through one of the worst downturns they've ever had. 2014 was really bad downturn for them. But even going into that, you still had a big backlog. One of the real differences going into this more severe downturn now, which was really created by COVID's destruction of demand, demand for oil, there's no real supports there. On the rig side when we went into the 2014 downturn, the rig companies had a huge backlog of months of wells going forward that they could count on as future income. That's been gradually eroded over the last four or five years.
Richard Sanchez (08:18):
And because the contract structures for the rigs offshore has been significantly shorter than in the past, when we were in 2014, those rig companies and the oil companies were going into that downturn with sometimes holding three, four year contracts on the rigs. This time around, we have a lot more short term rates where they only chartered the rig for a few wells, maybe six months to nine months. And so that means that now, as the downturn is getting more severe, and we're starting to see the budget cuts that were announced early in the year really take effect and show up as cancellation of drilling programs, it's just getting worse and worse.
Richard Sanchez (09:02):
And in fact, just this morning, I was looking up Rig Base, which is our marketing intelligence tool for the rigs. And I saw there were two more cancellations. The Pacific Sharav had its last well canceled. It's currently with Total. It was supposed to be going back to Murphy. And Murphy went ahead and just decided they weren't going to do the work they were planning with it in Mexico. Now they still went ahead and contracted the rig for some additional wells starting in the second half of 2021, but that doesn't really help the rig contractors here in 2020 when they're really suffering. There was another one in the Pacific, Khamsin, I believe it had its remaining well with Ecuador canceled. And while it's still working now, it's going to be rolling off in a month or two.
David Vaucher (09:53):
Richard Sanchez (09:53):
And I expect we could continue to see more cancellations of the actual rig schedule.
David Vaucher (10:00):
So, okay. So unfortunately, if anyone was tuning in for good news, Sheila and Richard did not set a great tone and I guess spoiler alert, I don't think Reed's going to be able to make things any better. But I guess Reed, by providing some high level numbers in terms of production and CapX, what does the scene look like now for U.S. onshore going forward, particularly as it relates to the awful state we were in just a couple of months ago? Are we out of the woods or is it going to be still a hard road ahead for us?
Reed Olmstead (10:35):
Well, I'll put it this way. The story is brighter in the sense that the hurricane came through and we thought we lost everything, but in fact, the toilet is still a fixed to the floor. So it's bad, but it's not as bad as we thought. So where we are, where we're thinking. Look, we've all lived through this in every sector. I mean, even everybody at IHS has lived through this with our clients and whatnot. I would say again, the worst is behind us and the outlook is brighter, but that's only because the toilet is still bolted down. So we see CapX this year, we're expecting it to come in around $40 billion, which is pretty low. And the real kicker on that is look, 40 billion but we were expecting 84 to 86 billion at the beginning of the year. And that's what we were tracking, right?
Reed Olmstead (11:36):
So the first quarter of the year operators spent a third of that. So you can take that 25 billion or 22 billion and say, "That's already spent." That doesn't leave a lot of money for the remaining nine months of the year and we're on pace for that. So this year is horrendous and you can look at anything out there, any commentary from operators, service industry, look at how long a house stays on the market on your block and realize it's bad across the board. And oil and gas is not unique in this. So that said, the bright side, the bright side is next year. It's going to be bad this year and we know that. We've seen the industry really respond acutely to this problem. So we saw a lot of shut-ins. We saw OPEC respond. And so the imbalance has really gotten... We had this huge overhang, this huge supply imbalance and that's really gotten worked out much faster than a lot of people were expecting.
Reed Olmstead (12:45):
We even were very aggressive on our expectation and we were behind the ball on how quickly this would work out. So that is to say, things are not as bad as they used to be and next year will be better. In fact, I've been looking at rigs, rig count is actually starting to come up. We tromped on lower 48 onshore activity at about 223 back early July. And we hit 50 last week by IHS count. So rigs are coming back. We're seeing shut-ins come back and next year it's going to be even better. So next year we're going to be at about $52 billion of upstream CapX, upstream onshore. And that's a good thing. And it's going to continue to go up from there.
Reed Olmstead (13:34):
The other good thing that we're seeing is a shift in the business model. And I say that as operators are maintaining their commitment to a shift in their business model as returns based as opposed to growth. And we saw that starting to play out. And that's been a story that we've talked about for a couple of years, that they're really starting to be very good financial stewards of investor money. Now, David, you asked if there's a bright side and while I've talked about, it's not as bad as it used to be, that's not really a bright side. We've talked about a shift in the business model. That's not really a bright side. You want a true bright side [crosstalk 00:14:08] how about gas prices above $3.50 next year?
David Vaucher (14:11):
Reed Olmstead (14:12):
And that's our average. And there's a neat little interplay between oil and gas. And this is a story that we started developing a few months ago, and we're really starting to get our mind wrapped around it and put some really robust analysis behind it. But you drill a well in the Permian for oil and you get some gas and that's associated gas, it really doesn't factor into a lot of the economics. In fact, we saw the reports of flaring and venting and, "We shouldn't be doing this." Well now what was going to happen was a third of the gas market in the U.S. was going to be this gas that was produced for... Wasn't based on economics, that's 30 BCF a day. And we're going to start seeing that decline. Not go away, but definitely not grow into our demand outlook. And so what that means is we have less free gas. That means we've got to have more gas activity that's driven by gas economics. And to get that you got to have a rising gas price.
Reed Olmstead (15:13):
So we're actually very bullish on gas price going into next year. Really it kicks off around fourth quarter and that's going to be the bright side of where we see the industry going. The oil is going to come along and the oil will survive, but the gas is the author of the story.
David Vaucher (15:27):
I knew we get to some positive news here. It took a little time to get to it, but I'm glad we got there. So I think what I want to do now is really move into the motivation behind Richard asking for this in the first place. Really what I want to understand is first from Sheila and Reed, do you think there is any tension now in investment decisions and dollars between offshore and onshore? And granted, we're talking about a smaller subset of operators, those that can do one or the other, but even amongst the investment community. Do you think this is going to change the bias from one to the other in terms of where the dollars are spent? And then Richard, once they provided their input, I'd love to hear some commentary from you in terms of how you may see the market shifting if in fact there is perhaps a move away from onshore. So Sheila, if we could start with you in terms of what your thoughts are between maybe more or less investment going to offshore.
Sheila Moore (16:23):
Well, I think there might be less investment going to offshore because even when we look at our breakevens, we have several maybe around 40%, 45% of projects in Gulf of Mexico that would have breakevens below $40. But I mean, that's not a huge chunk of the breakevens. But the one bright side when we look at our forecast and we're going over our new breakevens is that some of the equipment, some of the efficiency gains that we're going to be forced to take on because of the downturn might lower some of the breakevens, but it's still, I think it's more of a secure bit because when we go to onshore than offshore, it's a longer investment. Once you invest, you still will have to... You're there for a couple of years for the CapX and it's just a shorter turnaround for onshore.
Sheila Moore (17:24):
So it seems, in my opinion, that onshore is a better investment in this current situation. If you're looking at muted, lower oil price, where would you invest? It just makes more logical sense to send your money to onshore. It doesn't mean that there isn't projects in the Gulf of Mexico that are profitable currently. It's just there aren't number of them.
David Vaucher (17:50):
Understood. So Reed, I mean, based on what you're seeing and the shift in business model you discussed, is that what you're also understanding, or is there maybe a different view that you're seeing from your vantage point?
Reed Olmstead (18:05):
So we think that production and capital will be preferentially allocated onshore. And you brought up a good point. There aren't a lot of companies that have that optionality, certainly between Gulf of Mexico and lower 48, but the ones that do will look at it from a strategic premise of, "What do my investors want?" But one thing that's changed is look, when we came into this year, back in October of last year, when everybody was doing their planning, they were looking at a $45 to $50 price deck as their base case.
Reed Olmstead (18:40):
And what we've heard from people and what we're starting to come to is planning cases are going to be a lot lower than that from now on. And there are a couple of reasons. One is we're going to plan for a lower price so that we can make sure we hit those investor returns targets, but also there's a fear going on in the industry, not a fear, but a realization of, "Look man, on January 1st, COVID was just something that was in the news on the fourth page of the paper. And on March 31st, it flipped the world upside down. Could that happen again?"
Reed Olmstead (19:22):
It's the realization of the black Swan, right? And it's come true. And it came true somewhat back in 2014, 2015, when price collapsed. It's come true again. And operators are going to be planning at a much lower level on their price deck. And so that puts a lot of the offshore in stress, right? And then there's the timing issue, which is, "Look, I can respond to a price collapse in a matter of months." We saw volumes crash in March, April and May as a result of shut-ins. Well, two years into a three year project, you've still got to spend money on that offshore platform and that doesn't work well. So I think there's got to be activity. There's still going to be activity offshore in my mind. There's still going to be capital deployed, but significantly less. I think the preference is going to be towards more responsive barrels.
David Vaucher (20:21):
Fair. Okay. So then Richard, I think everyone's really reinforcing the original premise here and the scene that you originally set. Are you seeing any green shoots of recovery here? I mean, what in your and your team's view is the path towards recovery in the equipment market specifically if there is even any in the next couple of years?
Richard Sanchez (20:43):
So it's really hard to see. While he was talking about the offshore has had the storm passed I mean, the onshore has been through some of the worst. For offshore activity, I think this third and fourth quarter are going to see the number of wells drilled get fewer, the number of rigs contracted fall. Right now, I believe we're down to around 17 floating drilling rigs. That's the semis and drill ships, which do the deep water work out there. Only about half of those have really long-term contracts carrying them into 2021. So unless we start to see some of these companies decide that they want to keep the rig for longer, which has not been the trend, but the trend has been that as the company gets to the end of their rig contract, they're much more likely to release it.
Richard Sanchez (21:38):
And I'm probably seeing at least another six floating rigs, which are expected to be released by the end of the year. And I think we might only have one coming up for Chevron, which they contracted a while back. So I feel like we're going to continue to see erosion of offshore. 2021 is likely to be a better year for offshore, but only because 2020 will have been so devastating and terrible.
Richard Sanchez (22:04):
I'm just really worried for the industry. Right now we're in a situation where E&P companies, the oil companies, have been enjoying top of the line equipment for less than it costs to build the equipment. All these state-of-the-art vessels and rigs, which were built say, five, 10 years ago at great cost, at least in the vessel side, their values have, I would argue, less than half. Vessels, which were going for 35, 40 million originally from the shipyards, I think last year, you were able to pick up one of those, which was sort of left behind for about 20 million. Some of the other rates have been as low as eight to 14 million for some of these new generation vessels. When you're buying them from the bank so to speak because a certain number of vessels have been repossessed and have come under the ownership of the banks, when the bank finally owns the piece of equipment, they really want to unload it.
Richard Sanchez (23:08):
And so while we saw the vessel values, they were a bit sticky in 2016 and 2017, which were really horrible years for offshore, but the vessel owners didn't want to sell because they had expectation that the tonnage they were holding on to could potentially double in value if things dramatically turned around, which I think had been some of their experiences in the past. And so it wasn't really until this year and last year that you started to see those values for the really older vessels come down to as low as, for say a 15-year-old, 3000 dead weight ton PSV come down to a million five. So now we've started seeing some of those find their way into other alternative work.
Richard Sanchez (23:54):
There's not really enough of it because there's such an oversupply of boats, but some of it has been finding its way into other jobs. You have some vessels which are supporting Space X right now and doing sort of the retrieval of [crosstalk 00:24:08] rocket parts. You had a few big international anchor handlers working on the Great Pacific Garbage Patch where they were cleaning up that big floating island of garbage. We've seen vessels starting to support offshore wind installation, offshore wind surveys. I think we're likely to see more of that in the next few years, as we start to see more offshore wind projects on the U.S. coast, but it's just a bad situation for the vessel owners. [crosstalk 00:24:37] We've seen a lot of bankruptcies already. I think those bank companies who've already been through the bankruptcy might be in the best position going forward, because they're going to have the lower costs.
Richard Sanchez (24:49):
But overall, I mean, the reason I even wanted to have this conversation, I wanted to try to get an idea of what oil price points we might start to see some recovery in offshore. And really what I'm seeing from this discussion is that I think we're going to have to see significantly higher oil prices. I think we might have to see more like $55, $60 a barrel before we start to see the sanctioning of any real significant projects. El logs sanctioned a big project this year, but it was really an outlier of... The majority of things are getting revised. We're seeing lots of LNG projects around the world just get canceled that were going forward. I think this is another thing that's going to help gas prices, natural gas prices is that from what Reed was saying, that we're going to have lower supply of that. But for offshore and we've looked at offshore gas in the past, I think it's too expensive.
Richard Sanchez (25:49):
I think at the moment, if anyone's going to want to actually go and do some development in order to develop gas, I think it's going to be much easier and cheaper to do it onshore. Offshore gas requires something more closer to $5 to $6 per foot for the gas in order to make the, the offshore gas profitable, which I think we'd seen in the distant past. But I doubt we're going to see those prices again. Even as prices improve, I don't think they'll get that high to stimulate the offshore gas.
Sheila Moore (26:21):
I think offshore gas is dead. Even if you look at the jack ups, I mean, there's four working and I think two of them are doing plug and abandonment. There isn't a lot of work, but back to your vessel comment, and they're looking at the price point of oil going forward. Because what we talk about, what the oil price needs to be to make a future project profitable. What they already invested in older projects that they actually need the oil price to be higher. So operators are struggling as well.
Sheila Moore (26:55):
And when they come to contracting because you've mentioned that vessel owners reduce costs and a lot of the operators expect them to stay at that cost reduction even though it's below operating expenses. Because some of those contracts for offshore installation, they bundled everything together. And sometimes the vessel was actually half of the price, the day rate was halved but you had everything bundled together and it gave the operators a good deal. And now operators don't want to see any price increase even though the vessel owners need to just to maintain operating expenses. So it's that battle between, "You gave me this good rate. Why are you increasing the price now?"
David Vaucher (27:39):
Right, right. No, it is difficult. And actually this is all building towards something, which I know that I had in my mind when we were prepping this. So Reed, I want to throw, I guess a two part question to you. The first one is just getting into the tactical piece of oil price. What is your outlook for oil price in the next two, three years roughly? And what's the level where you really think it would need to be at, to spur recovery? So that's the first quick question.
David Vaucher (28:09):
The second one, and I'm hoping I can get out of you the same analogy that you used when we were prepping for this. But U.S. onshore specifically has had this roughly, call it 15 year period now, of really being in the spotlight. And now it seems like all interest is gone. So I'm being a little facetious here, but what's the point? I didn't want to bring geopolitics into this now, but Saudi Arabia has done what they've done, Russia as well. We know there's barrels everywhere. So what's the point, I guess of U.S. onshore, if everyone's saying, "Well, the money isn't as good as we thought it was or maybe it's more difficult to make that money." So without leading you too much on, what are your thoughts on those two aspects there?
Reed Olmstead (28:50):
Sure. So I'll tell you, this year we're looking at a $42 average price, I think. And next year it'll be about 47, but that's average. So we're coming up next year it's going to be, I think we're leaving next year, our fourth quarter is around $52. In a modest, moderate ramp up of a couple bucks a year. Nothing really exciting about it. But that's because the industry has changed, right? And so what does it take to really get growth back? I don't know, because we talk with a lot of executives and I was on the phone last week with the CEO of one of the largest producers in America and we're running through scenarios and I said, "All right, back me up here. At $65 oil, you're going to drill?" And he goes, "Not a chance. Not a chance. I'm going to keep to my plan. I'm going to return that money. Everybody's gotten so beat up over this in the last three or four years, especially this year. $65 doesn't really do it for me."
Reed Olmstead (29:56):
And so then my question is as an analyst and observer of the industry, "Can I even craft a story to get us to $65, a realistic plausible story?" And so at that point, I don't think there's a lot of upside. I think everybody is really defensive right now. And even if we go to 65 and then we'll see some activity change, but the industry's really changed a lot in the last couple of years too. It used to be a lot smaller companies that were more nimble, more responsive that would look to capture upside and they were a lot more volatile in behavior, which isn't to say volatility is bad. It's just, when you look at Exxon, Exxon hung at their rig count. They were the last operator to drop rigs in the U.S. because, hey, they've got a plan, they've committed. They're here for the long term. They can keep drilling at $30 price because they've got a 15 year horizon. Whereas a private operator has a three to four year horizon. They've got a much different expectation for investors.
Reed Olmstead (31:01):
So all that is to say, I don't know that we see a price that realistically changes behavior in a material way.
David Vaucher (31:11):
[crosstalk 00:31:11] So what is the role then, right?
Richard Sanchez (31:15):
So what is the role? We're still pumping out 10 million barrels a day and it takes money to replace that. The United States every day, it's a decline in... U.S. production is a declining asset. If you don't spend money today, your production drops. And so we will continue to see activity. We will continue to see investment because we still are producing 10 million barrels a day for 12. We're still a very material force and we're also the most responsive. When you think about who could drop 2 million barrels in a matter of months, they're only a couple of places that can and would. And due to the unique situation of the United States industry, we could do it. And we did it and OPEC came along and they dropped some barrels too. But when you think about what country, what supply asset, can respond that nimbly, there aren't many and the U.S. still has a very material role to play should we see something like this happen again. Should we... And even if we don't, it's still a 10th of global supply right now.
David Vaucher (32:27):
Sure. Okay. So I think that the discussion is I suspected we could probably go on for at least another hour on this, but I think to keep things just manageable because I think the story that everyone's told is cohesive now, but I think just to keep things manageable and also importantly, just end on a bright note, what I'd like to do is just go around again, the virtual room, starting with Sheila and maybe just in 30 seconds or so, first maybe Sheila, then Richard, then Reed, what is the bright spot in your respective area?
Sheila Moore (33:02):
That's a really tough question. The bright spot. Well, I think all the discussions they had during the last downturn about cutting costs, whether or not the cost cutting would stick, I think the cost cutting will end up sticking. But with that said, I do know that it's going to be pretty tough on people, there's going to be layoffs. So I can't actually say if there's going to be a bright spot for offshore because the bright spot for the operators is going to be horrible for the service company. So it's a give and a take for offshore.
David Vaucher (33:40):
I think nowadays everything's relative. And I guess Richard, on your point of view, I think maybe the bright spot here, if we can call it that, might be the fact that there's so much extra equipment for other types of projects, the Space X and the offshore wind. I mean, would you agree with that? Or is there something else that I am not catching?
Richard Sanchez (33:59):
No, that's true. If you have a project that requires sophisticated, expensive, offshore support vessels, this is actually a great time to go out and acquire equipment. You're going to get top of the line, state of the art equipment and less than it costs to build. In terms of the offshore, the bright spot is going to be outside of the U S Gulf. The U.S. Gulf is facing continued pain in the offshore sector, but down in Guyana and Brazil, those fields are large enough and it looks like their lift costs are low enough that those projects are going to continue going forward.
David Vaucher (34:36):
Excellent, great. That's an excellent answer. And I think it provides a lot of open space within which to work, right? So you can look beyond the Gulf of Mexico and there's a whole world of potential opportunities. So again, it's all relative nowadays.
Richard Sanchez (34:50):
We already started seeing a lot of the U.S. vessel owners moving out into Latin America as they started to realize that there was still big projects out there, even though the projects in their backyard were shrinking.
David Vaucher (35:03):
Okay, excellent. And then Reed, let's end with U.S. onshore. What's the bright spot?
Reed Olmstead (35:11):
So one bright spot I think is the fulfillment of the change in business model. It's something that investors have been demanding for a while and we're seeing operators really walk the walk right now. They've had to talk it for a couple of years as they implemented the change and now they've really, they've committed to it and it's believable. And I think that that's going to help the business. The other bright spot, like I mentioned, is gas. If you're a gas operator, you are finally getting a tailwind here for your business model. It's going to take a little bit of time due to some nuances of the business to really capture it, but they will. And so North America onshore gas is really going to be a bright spot for the business in the coming couple of years.
David Vaucher (35:58):
Excellent, great. So I'm glad we were able to get three very solid answers to end positively. I guess, we've now gone over a half hour I think. I want to thank everyone, Sheila, Richard, Reed, for your time. Anyone out in the audience that's listening to this and wants to find out more, I think we'll probably put some contact information down in the show notes. So please do feel free to get in touch with us. And especially if you want to speak with anyone in particular, we'll make that happen for you. Beyond that, just want to encourage everyone to please stay safe, stay healthy. We hope that for you, and we hope that you can catch us here on the next episode of the IHS Markit upstream podcast series. Thanks so much.