Hill Vaden: Alright.
Great, welcome back to energy sense and IHS market podcasts that discuss is all things on the intersection of finance and energy. This is Hill Baden hosting today with two guests experts on the solar market. Attorneys OKO in Switzerland and Cormac Gilligan who is back again from Ireland. How are both of you?
Cormac Gilligan: Very good hell my sweet you.
Hill Vaden: So and this, you know, just for our listeners one, we're here to talk about the supply chain tightness within the solar market, but I think it's going to be useful context just to supply chain tightness that we've been dealing with within this podcast where this is maybe the fifth time that we've had an appointment to have this conversation and schedules have prevented it.
Edurne Zoco: Hi.
Hill Vaden: Uh.
From that from happening several weeks previously, so that there's a real kind of shared paying across the US solar supply chain, even down to the conversation with experts like yourselves.
So thank you both for making time for this.
So I'm you know there there's a ton. I think everybody is kind of seeing the headlines on the post COVID kind of demand ramp up and businesses being ill prepared as opposed to to respond to that. And you know these are, you know, as big and energy as solar and other things. I don't know if you guys have seen the headline, but the little tapioca bubbles in bubble tea.
I don't know if either or either of you fans of bubble tea.
Cormac Gilligan: Oh yeah.
Not massively, it's it's not big where I am, but I'm aware of it. Yeah, yeah.
Edurne Zoco: My sons are big fun.
Hill Vaden: OK, well apparently those I've never had it. A couple bubble tea or mug order you do, but apparently those bubbles are rare supply and hipsters all over are kind of freaking out because they can't get their bubble tea.
The other one that I've seen recently is a chick in because all the chicken Nuggets or the chick in the fried chicken sandwiches in the US are kind of taking over burgers and chicken chickens for sandwiches or in short supply, and then just as recently as last week. Actually we're supposed to talk last week, Chick-fil-A, which is kind of a leading chicken sandwich maker in the US, has limited its sauces to two per customer.
Because there is currently a shortage in barbecue sauce and sweet and sour and things, so it's really it's really kind of all over it. And and taking people.
No by surprise.
Cormac Gilligan: Yeah, who knew about peoples at post pandemic indulgences or something of that nature that they've that they have a craving for?
At the noughties, or extreme like hot chickens are spicy chicken, yeah.
Hill Vaden: Yeah, and it's it's some of it's in a way. Comical is the types of things that are going. So banana, ice all solar. But I saw like Patagonia makes these shorts are called Baggies. I don't own any but I read an article in the paper about how they you can't get him anywhere and people are looking on eBay and then trying to flip him and things like that.
But now all of a sudden I wanna pair just because I can't get it there.
Edurne Zoco: 'cause yeah.
Activating the US and Europe and you know, that's yes, one sign, and that's what it's actually making things much worse in terms of of supply chain and flags.
Hill Vaden: would some of it. You know, with hindsight seems predictable that that you when you go from zero to one or whatever we've gone from.
You know, it's hard to prepare in advance for that because you can't just kind of.
Turn on your supply chain and the way that I guess we were forced to turn off out of the lock down.
And what I find really interesting, and this is, you know, some of what led to this conversation.
When we look at solar, and you know, cleantech in general has been one of the hottest investment themes of 2020.
Solar was kind of go into, you know, these companies were really going to attend crazy.
I guess I can't say crazy, but these are going very high multiples and then as the earnings calls started to come out in Q2.
Seem to be caught off guard that a lot of these companies were reporting supply chain tightness.
And you know both you guys were putting out reports.
Well ahead of all this you Cormac is there.
Or are you surprised that others seem to be surprised by the supply chain tightness and solar?
Cormac Gilligan: Not not, I'm surprised, but I suppose it depends on everyones lens or viewpoints in that.
I mean I our daily tracking this and you know it's it's challenging for us. As we said, even to arrange calls and because things are so many questions being asked at the moment and this is this is not new in the solar industry. You know, we kind of joked about it at the beginning of the call. That's three months and solar it. The markets move very quickly, even on a weekly basis. Now people want once information about pricing or about.
Individual countries, but if you know if we zoom out and if we look at it from maybe a financial community point of view.
You know, out of Covid, definitely, as we mentioned, cleantech was was a winner.
And all the energy transition certainly.
Solar has been even in our forecasting. We've been, you know, increasingly raising our forecasts for the amount of solar that's going to be installed last year. This year and in the coming years.
You know, part of it is we wrestled with how are things going to actually perform? You know, even throughout the pandemic.
And solar has performed extremely well and robustly.
So you consider that.
In most countries it's been like an essential service. It's fallen under construction, so it's fennel to exceed expectations last year, so it's kind of following this.
Very strong momentum.
And if anything, it's success has been a little bit. It's it's poses some problems for itself.
And I are very aware of them and will probably touch on them a little later at some of the different components or aspects be the metals, the raw materials phrase. So some of these are outside of solar alone.
but the industry is.
It's we kind of describe it as it's in. It's like it's middle stage where it's out of its adolescence. At this early stage of kind of high growth potential, and it's everyone knows who's actively in the industry of what snieders when it's needed, but the market is still growing so fast. And for example, you know this year we had were expecting about 181 gay watts.
An to be installed like a 27% growth year on year Bus. That's not what it's challenges, and I think we'll touch on these and maybe some of the next questions.
Hill Vaden: Sure, yeah, maybe it Edurne a just you know that that 181 in some of these kind of growing pains that Cormac mentioned that report that you guys put out to clients in March I think was titled Solar to sail through turbulent Waters and really all about the supply chain.
Much of which are the supply chain tightness. Much of this seems to be more than growing pains. An pandemic related that are.
Yeah, in a sense one offs. Can you maybe help frame the general kind of narrative of that paper and how it differs from say normal growing pains of the fast growing industry?
Edurne Zoco: So US corner was the 2020 solar despite COVID-19 and other restrictions. Had a growth around 10%. This was a bit unexpected, yes, because in that he was very heavily hit it in the first hit in the first quarter due to the concentration of Anna factory in China. But then we started to grow very very quickly and after the summer and these started to create some bottlenecks around.
Great class so 'cause it started to increase and the expectation in the market was that this was maybe a short lived phenomena and it will get better after the first quarter after some adjustments in running Krista Passati. But the reality is not being the case we have seen we're seeing in April and May be prices for some materials like this.
Put prices for you silly con. So rightly solar grade glass is getting a bit better, but we are seeing increases for copper for steel so the reality is that production costs for modular manufacturers especially. But also this is impacting other components as inverters and.
I'm trackers are much higher than anticipated and for this reason model prices and the prices components are much higher than they were.
Previously forecasted by the analysts or the developers when they were doing running the financial models for development in the second half, and this is what we are seeing at this moment that the prices of the components are much higher than anticipated at this is impacting at returns of the potential projects, so this is causing some delays around procurement. Also because the situation is very volatile. Prices change all the time. There is limited visibility around what the price is going to be. For steel where the president to be for polysilicon.
I need the situation was not.
Complicated enough, we have all the other issue which is around frights and this is something that is.
Of course, be on solar power. Solar is extremely impacted because of the concentration of manufacturing in China, which of course is the most impacted route in terms of higher flights cause you to be imbalance in trade.
This situation we are seeing right? 'cause 3/4 times higher than last year plus higher component costs which is making a procurement teams extra. Putin procurement teams in very challenging situations.
Hill Vaden: So the freight concerns to does that advantage. Certainly you know if China is manufacturing or pages manufacturing lot of this today is that advantage. Those areas that much closer to the manufacturing in terms of meeting the demand, forecast an insulating any of the price.
Or is the price impact global?
Uh, I mean.
Yeah, well, I mean our assumption about this market is that not all regions are equally impacted for the credit for the pricing and for that right? I mean so read some regions of market are less price sensitive and also of course some regions that are closer to the manufacturing hubs are less impacted by by Friday 'cause or not only fried cost but also lead times because the problem is not only that the costs are higher than anticipated, is that you might need six weeks 8 weeks.
Or in order to get a container or get a vessel, so of course we are working around these slight risk map for installations in 2021 that takes into account factors as we just mentioned around being closer to the.
Apple, how much price sensitive the market is all the segments to the model costs for higher component costs.
Hill Vaden: So where Cormac it we're talking about? You know prices at some point that influences demand, and the last you know when I looked at it last, that we were still holding on to that 181 giga Watt forecast through 2021, noting a lot of the risk on the things that Ernie's talked about. At what point does price start to impact? That done met demand.
Cormac Gilligan: Right about now so.
You know an attorney and I are having these client conversations on a daily basis now, not in a very open manner, and it's as we're doing today. You know, no one has an exact crystal ball of how these already. It's so multifaceted that some of it is within the industry. Some of it is outside the industry that all these economies are facing. But if we try and keep to the focus of solar only.
yes, we're in a higher price or higher CapEx environments.
Because of everything attorneys mentions, so racking is become more expensive or the trackers because of higher steel costs. Inverters are being impacted, some wash because of some constructor or copper availability, especially on the transformer, so the parts that.
Hill Vaden: Uh.
Cormac Gilligan: Transferred electricity to the grid. Transmission and distribution equipment.
And the modules we talked about, the polysilicon is 1 very big part.
And and the problem is, as we said, its is that.
Hill Vaden: Uh.
Cormac Gilligan: We have
come out of a very strong 2020.
Also, a lot of pipeline that we called a waterfall effect or an overflow effect. In some countries that didn't get completed in 2020 that was supposed get completed. So for example India was one of the markets that was actually one of the few markets that went down in 2020 from solar installation point of view. So we have we have a big expectation expectation prior to current circumstances that that was going to be a growth market. So that's one example of a market at the moment.
Hey, it's very price sensitive. Typically a lot of utility scale is installed in India.
And it's a big solar farms. And then there's also the issues around even due to the pandemic getting large labor crews.
Hill Vaden: Sure.
Cormac Gilligan: Brought to cite some other markets to just give a sense of what might be at risk. Is markets as attorney mentioned like in Europe, where there's maybe a lot of tenders or auctions. These may be at risk when you have higher CapEx prices. Africa Middle East, a little bit Australia and little bit and in the Americas.
Hill Vaden: Uh.
Cormac Gilligan: Particularly more in the Latin American markets.
Utility scale particularly.
Like Brazil, Chile, Argentina, Mexico, for example, they could be some up hit.
Hill Vaden: Uh.
Cormac Gilligan: But overall, we don't expect too much demand destruction, so we don't expect these projects to be just killed off or anything like that, even if they are in the higher. But what we?
Explain to people and what we have conversations with. Parts of the supply chain is it's on a project by project cases.
That you have to do your full evaluation on. If there's flexibility there. Maybe this downside risk that maybe our 181 might become a little bit lower and you're going to have this kind of overflow effect, or this waterfall effect into 22 where the demand will be pushed a little later because it might allow a little bit of flexibility in pricing in if you push forward maybe a few quarters or year.
Hill Vaden: Uh.
And as if I'm correct that our forecast hitting that 181 was already anticipating some pretty aggressive Q4 installations, right? And we haven't. We haven't seen enough to unwind that Q4 here. It's it's May 19th.
Cormac Gilligan: Yeah, not, not exactly, but and it was also contingent as attorney said upon.
I love that pipeline and a lot of that installations occurring was based on pricing that we had Q 420 or at the very beginning of the year and things have escalated are changed so quickly in the matter of weeks across all these components.
It would be.
Reasonably sure that there will be some push outs to 22, yeah.
Edurne Zoco: Yeah.
Hill Vaden: 22
Edurne Zoco: Only solution outlook for 2021 was always assuming are very strong. A second half, especially record breaking fourth quarter. It is true that the first quarter has been in general is lower than anticipated. One of the reasons is that manufacturers have in some cases to lower utility utilization rates. Hoping in this manner to control a bit the high cost of.
I practice of the raw materials so this has impacted deliveries. So what is happening at this moment is that.
Keep the most uh?
If developers wait, well, we're seeing at this moment. Is that if the velop is wait a long time in order to procure because of the fries equation, it might be the case that even if you want to procure and you want to install on time within 2021, you might not be able to do it. So that's why we are assuming increasingly more volume of projects on the utility scale to be to be postponed to 2020.
Cormac Gilligan: Uh.
Edurne Zoco: So this is something that.
Yeah dances. It is a bigger risk for the for the outlook.
Hill Vaden: are there any regional policy implications that that are going to impact buyers here in terms of having one solar project installed on make up numbers December 30th rather than January 2nd? I mean it is an. If so, are we seeing any movements from policy makers to extend any tax benefits or something else to to accommodate the supply chain bottlenecks?
Edurne Zoco: Uh, we have. I mean, the only a big policy change that we have seen in the market that is not really impacting that. March 2021 is the extension of the ITC in the US. But in our assumptions you know we consider that by the time of the announcement which was late December, most of the 2021 profits were already under construction zone. The impact would be felt later. There are some.
Projects on, for instance, in China that need to be completed within 2021 and also in other regions in India. There is a lot of big pipeline that at this moment with the current.
He needs to be completed in the next quarters.
But there is also considered pipeline that doesn't have a fix construction of date. Then you have of course corporate PPA's and PPA contracts that were signed with.
With the with the date and then just cases will have to see what happens is they are delayed or any additional negotiations in case that price environment continues.
Hill Vaden: So who you in Cormac? Maybe this is a good question for you that in terms of that price impact here.
Cormac Gilligan: Uh.
Hill Vaden: Who's losing that? It is it that the solar company that's having to eat the cost or the end user who's having to to pay more? And if the end user is there another end user who will gladly pay more if the first fire turns it down?
Cormac Gilligan: Yeah, that's that's a good question.
I think it's shared.
Broadly, I don't think anyone parts of the supply chain or someone at the end of the process, I think.
Everyone is sharing the maybe the we would describe it as a temporary old Beata could be more than 1/4. This increase in CapEx costs.
So because it's some of it's outside your control.
An everyone is doing their best to see about is the flexibility on timelines, if there is.
Ways of prioritizing certain projects above others.
I do think that there will come a moment though an attorney and I talk about this where.
There will be.
You know the supply chain like a lot of industries works on the principle that they need certain minimum amount of production and economies of scale, and this is kind of linking back to what we said at the beginning about what stage in kind of a life cycle or maturity level is solar an it's now starting to reach considerable scale. So all of these manufacturers.
Based on the prices that they can offer, they have to assume certain production levels if they're not producing a certain production levels be cause of higher cost inputs.
Well, it doesn't really work. The business case just doesn't work. They have to stop us, and that's abrupt because they you know they did that a little bit. In some cases there were fires and polysilicon last year, and some of the plants.
Anna causes big shocks to the system, so it's in everyone's benefit for this to to roll over and try and move as quickly through this.
But there is going to be periods even tracked this here. We think where there will be this.
Price there could be big price movements at different times and the market is well. It also might cause the potential and we debate about this consolidation the market. Will the bigger players get bigger and just to linked your latter party or question.
Hill Vaden: Yeah.
Cormac Gilligan: When we get some more on the commercial side.
I think it will bring in some bigger players i.e. Oil and gas majors.
Maybe some of the green energy majors the gems, as they're known in the Mediterranean Company countries. Those have become very familiar and have maybe access to maybe better finance and who maybe can waste or can afford to pay a little bit extra for higher price solar panels or modules. Don't know it journey if you've anything to link up or say.
Edurne Zoco: Yeah, I think a lot of the discussion in the solar industry in the last few years has been around OK when is. When are we going to have more consolidation? More concentration on because at the beginning we have 100 or more suppliers. Small workshops it cetera, and the reality is that you can say that for instance, at the module level last year, the top 20 already produced more than 90% of the solar model. So already the day concentration and the consolidation on the manufacturing side is.
Is very strong and you go to more upstream knows like holy silicone away first or sales. I mean it's even it's even bigger. What is very interesting about the current cycle and an Cormac briefly discuss this is that we think in the current environment, high price environment and with the challenges around fried, this could be a very big opportunity for large companies to also.
A more aggressive or enter into the market and into the development side. Yes, we 'cause you know they might have.
Under finance, Oh well, CC on and which are low then? Or are more diversified business that allows them to?
Pay higher prices are certain Boeing or to delay or by pipeline from another developers that might be facing difficulties.
Hill Vaden: So aggressive move from buyers from larger buyers as opposed system suppliers that we're saying.
Edurne Zoco: I mean.
There could be. There could be an opportunity to to to buy pipeline you know for in certain markets, yes.
So we see that the the current environment could be also opportunity for constant concentration on the on the buying side.
Which is something that is not really discussed matching market, but we see this as a very clear trend.
On the majority of the solar industry as a.
As I mean this tree.
Hill Vaden: So as a maybe as a kind of an analog to to a much older industry in lumber that there was news this week that you know, lumber prices have been part of that commodity spike and the logical solution for that is to build more sawmills. It apparently takes 2 years to build a sawmill, and there's little appetite from today. Sawmill owners.
To invest in that, knowing that the cyclicality that or assuming that once they finish that sawmill, this supply chain would have evened out and they're going to have an underutilized sawmill man. So basically that you know there were some of the quotes in the paper saying, you know, we're happy to take the cash for this.
Or the solar companies in a position to take those cash flows right now? Sounds like demand is in some respects on affected, and we're going to continue to grow in 2122 and beyond.
What's the start up time to kind of ease this out? And until then, what are we expecting?
Cormac Gilligan: Well, I'll I'll just add my view on maybe the bit about.
You know when we look at other industries and this is happening at the moment in copper mark, you know mining, they talk about the lead time to ring on copper for availability or other may be rare earths.
I mean, it is clear that and there has been, you know, polysilicon as being one bottleneck and they've made manufacturing announcements. But the challenge at the moment is that supply is trailing well, it's not. It's still might be at times. It's very Mac stuff versus demand. At the very least, and then demand keeps growing based on what we're seeing in what we're forecasting.
And it takes some time and then it is concentrated in some markets like China.
No, we all we often get asked now as well. Like will there be local manufacturing in other markets to help with proximity? But you have to as attorneys mentioned, like the starting point. Some of the raw materials are still not really going to move too much beyond outside of China.
An example being polysilicon, but you can't do. Someone made like the final assembly of modules elsewhere.
And that could help a little bit, and it might. It probably will happen in some markets that have a certain scale.
But the thing that's going to help solar and why?
To supplier basis, continue so they're not they're happy to build more capacity.
At the moment, they're cautious an attorney will probably add to this about.
This kind of cash taking versus will they try and make some back some of their money that they may be found hard in the first six months and directly pass on lower prices? Or will there be a temporary?
Moment where they try and save back up some money. I don't know if you want to comment just in terms of the modules that by chain. What's kind of.
Edurne Zoco: From what we have seen at this moment, so demand is very strong. This what is happening on the raw materials and on the capital capacity constraint is our view is that is a is sort of phenomena away. Just in my your investments, announcements on investments in capacity alone all along the supply chain. Wait for polysilicon cell which are the highest graphics intense parts of the of the model supply chain.
So the industry is just checked in these demand to to continue in in. In coming years. We also have it is market. Expect this.
First, we continue very strong and so we see this as a short term adjustment on the market.
What for what the components and materials that are limited to the solar industry. By that I mean polysilicon cell, whether this is something that the solar industry can control and they are expanding accordingly in order to serve him. And the big question is more around those materials. Were the solar industry secondary so the impact of of copper Aurora steel? No, that's where they solar industry doesn't know because solar industry is very secondary. For for these markets.
But but for what?
for this or industry are not. Policy counselor great class. The industry is preparing I 6, standing accordingly and this should not be an issue in coming years.
Hill Vaden: So looking I guess specifically at this year you know if if I remember the numbers correctly. China the three, well I'll say two kind of big markets or mainland China and Europe plus North America the IT looked at into kind of Western and China at those are about equal size. Can the weakness potentially in the Americas and Europe be offset?
By local growth in China. For for us to really maintain confidence around that forecast for 21.
Edurne Zoco: I mean, we are expect this year for China. This year is of I mean so I had a very strong year 2020 at this fight. Covet have an amazing performance in the second half or speculation is that China is going to grow double digit this year again. However, there is a certain limit. I mean you have a certain limit to how much you can grow and you can install within one year.
Hill Vaden: Right?
Edurne Zoco: 40 and the new plan has said quite aggressive renewable targets for for China. However, we do not see. I mean, we don't think it's possible for China to catch up or to balance the the decline in in Europe. With all that support that matter. Pick line in the US in our model.
There is a certain limit and we don't think China can go beyond a certain level, which is around 6060 gigabyte. Also indications in the first quarter where are not very strong, so we see a certain limit to to install more than 60 gigabytes in 3/4.
Hill Vaden: OK so I'll performance in China won't you know after a certain point won't balance, too much underperformance from the list.
Cormac Gilligan: And if I might add to that Hill is.
Edurne Zoco: This.
Cormac Gilligan: Again, it links back to the industry time trying to be not depend trying to be diversified in terms of demands.
The origin of the solar markets was every time one of the major markets. Initially it was in Europe. It was like Germany, Italy, Spain and every time they would peak and drop the market with peak and drop and it would look for the next call it like solar rush.
Can minimize it was able to counter balance the market as it grew it was feeding its own manufacturing. It was kind of a.
Assess it, E. But what they're trying to do now is go and sell their product abroad.
And solar, the companies themselves to players in the market, are realizing that they got. Maybe they had challenges before, so they are trying to be not focused on any one Marcus.
That's the whole essence of why it's now seen as maybe more safer investment by way of their armor markets. There are more multi. I don't know. 10 gig Watt per year markets that you can invest in. It doesn't have to be China, United States Japan or something like that. There there are other markets coming on the that are more plausible or more.
An better suit it so it's just the nature of of where we are in the moment of soldiers life cycle.
Hill Vaden: So maybe this is a good place to wrap it up for. Today in Edurne a you mentioned a little while ago that none of us have a crystal ball, but let's pretend for a second that we do, and it's May 19 to 2022, and so we're looking back on the year.
How do you think we're going to do this? So supply chain tightness? What are the learnings from industry? Or are we still going to be in it?
Edurne Zoco: So in terms of costs, big reason is gonna get better.
In terms of rights, situation will be a signal.
Cormac Gilligan: Uh.
Edurne Zoco: In 2021, this is our view at ihsmarkit, so both costs.
And price should be better and then we are still anticipating a very strong 2022. We were already but also because of the backlog projects that will be delayed from 2021. We expect that record 2022. So we think next year will be another crazy year interest of the man. I'm probably with a bigger weight from international markets and then this year.
Hill Vaden: OK, and Cormac, what would your crystal ball tell you if we're sitting here a year from today looking backward?
Cormac Gilligan: Yes, some of it I so I think it's it's going to take a little bit of time to R&S. I think that would be fair to say.
But we kind of talked about 2020 being resilient year of solar, how well it performed and.
I think just the the the players in the market.
Have shown this ability to write out these solar coasters and this is no difference. It is as we said, some of it are externalities that are beyond their control, but they are.
Moving heaven and Earth and they are doing everything and.
Having spoken to a lot of people in the market, they go, you ask them, are these projects going to stop or they and they go? They can stop in some ways so and because they got this national targets and there's there's just waste this momentum and the train is left the station. That's the goodness, and so.
Hill Vaden: Yeah.
Cormac Gilligan: There may be a bit of turbulence, but all these problems are solvable.
That's yeah, we're very positive on our forecast for 22.
Hill Vaden: And did I hear you drop the term solar coaster?
Cormac Gilligan: Yes, it's a. It's a cliche term in the in the solar industry, yeah.
Hill Vaden: Yeah, it's new to me. I like it.
Cormac Gilligan: Yeah.
Edurne Zoco: So what is very interesting about this year is that we forecast at the very beginning of the year that this might be the first time that where we will have a growth in the solar industry without model with a model decline with an actually we are convinced that's going to be the case, but not only on the model side. We think this would be a year for growth for solar, even with flat CapEx in some in some markets with.
Really makes gives you a sense of you know how is strong. The solar industry is that the cost levels that the industry has achieved has made it competitive with other. I mean maybe that's it need to go lower because it's already competitive and financial models work with with this. With this cost levels. And I also think that this could be an opportunity, especially among factors. Have the possibility to maintain margins. So maybe coffee.
Earlier and then price is the kind of it later to basically invest in R&D and invest in the next cycle. For for technology and development. This is something that I think could be a bit.
A big winner from the current cost environment and maybe we we see an acceleration of off topic on. With Pete I pronunciation of more N type or even parasites being accelerated. Yes, in order to continue or being able to continue lowering CapEx. So I think it's going to be very excited to be working on analyzing for for this industry. So that's my crystal ball.
Hill Vaden: Alright.
Edurne Zoco: And we want will not get boards.
Hill Vaden: Well, this is been great. Thank thank you guys for speaking with me and I think you're right that this is exciting and from kind of an industry perspective. It's really nice if I'm sitting in a solar industry position today. It's nice to be dealing with price increases and have demand. Perhaps delayed but not.
Being reduced so on on the back of that. That's a real vote of confidence in the industry.
So that this will indeed be exciting to watch and and maybe we'll be back here 12 months to see where we were right in those crystal balls.
Well, thank you and we will will pick this up again. Hopefully on a future episode.
Edurne Zoco: Thank you.
Cormac Gilligan: Thanks so.
Hill Vaden: Alright.