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David Vaucher: All right, well, welcome everyone to this episode of Upstream in Perspective. I am David Vaucher and I’m very happy to be here returning as your host for this show. If you listen to us last year you know that we went on a brief hiatus but it’s great to be back. And I hope that 2021 has started very well for all of you, wherever you are out there in the world. Now, we have a special guest today because not only is the first one of our return to the show but also it’s because this is my colleague in the upstream costs and technology team. So, I work in IHS Markit cost and technology team and usually I will have guests from outside of that, but today we have someone that I work with on a weekly basis.
So, his name is Prashanth Pillai, also known as Prash, and I will let him give a little bit more detail on what he covers. But today we’re going to talk about a very important topic that’s facing upstream operators today, and hopefully we can get into a little bit more of that by looking at some of the research that Prash is doing. So Prash would you mind just introducing yourself quickly and what you do within the cost and technology team.
Prashanth Pillai: Absolutely, thanks a lot David. I appreciate the introduction. Hi, everyone listening. So, my name is Prashanth Pillai. I joined IHS the start of 2018. My background is sort of oil and gas upstream well services. So, I specialized in hydraulic fracturing. I worked in Australia over in Queensland, and then I was transferred to Texas where I spent a few years blasting a lot of sand, chemicals down hole into wells. So, basically what I do within the cost and technology group is I work in the cost and expenditures segment where we basically track it all field operational costs. I tend to focus more on how costs are being impacted in the wells division, so covering various well services segments and also covering well material, was tracking you know pipe prices, problem materials. So there, that’s just a little bit of an introduction on what I do.
David Vaucher: Yes, and also I should mention that beyond all of that research that I take part in as well we also have time to kind of do some deep dives on specialized topics and that’s one of the ones we’re going to look at today which is de-carbonization. But I will just say I’ll take a quick pause to mention for the audience that even though you can just hear the audio we’re talking to each other, so Prash and I can see each other on screen, from a distance obviously. So, he’s out in London office and I’m here in France and he looks like he’s ready to go fishing off the coast of Alaska. He has got this phenomenal like fishermen look, the beard, the beanie, everything. So, Prash, you must be cold. Where were you are?
Prashanth Pillai: Oh, yes, so, I’m based in London. I live in West London and we got a decent amount of snow yesterday which was quite magical. So, but yes, we are maintaining strict physical distancing as per protocols.
David Vaucher: You know, and I just thought, so, I was thinking of how it started the episodes and you know small talk about the weather. It’s kind of a safe thing, right but I think in these times of COVID, it’s almost the way to like transport yourself somewhere else, but at the same time since it’s cold where you are and it’s cold where I am, I’ll have to check and see if there’s a Hawaiian office of IHS Markit, and we can ask them what the weather’s like next time and then we can all take a mental trip. All right, so now on the topic of today show, de-carbonization.
Now, we’ve heard a lot about energy transition, we’ve heard a lot about oil and gas companies operated and service companies taking steps to explaining how do we get to where we are now? So, in your kind of estimation and from the fact based that you’ve gathered, what do you think the progress has been for E and Ps, and service companies over the last couple of decades, I mean just generally speaking but certainly over the last few years? I mean what has the progress been in terms of de-carbonizing their operations and supply chains?
Prashanth Pillai: Yes, happy to get my perspective on that David. I mean to be quite blunt, I think the [indiscernible] [00:04:34] oil and gas upstream sector has been somewhat suffering from bit of inertia in terms of approaching de-carbonization, I think. We’ve been living in a world that has been so dependent on hydrocarbon resources and obviously you know with the heightened climate change of issues that have arisen in the last two decades through, you know for almost 30 years, you’re starting to see a bit more awakening in terms of okay, what sort of impact are we having on our environment, what sort of effects, our actions in operations having on that environment which, you know we’re all living in.
So, I would say the oil and gas industry has been a bit of a regard lagged in the sense that you know if compared to other industries like healthcare, automotive that have really embraced digital technologies to enhance their production efficiencies, you haven’t really seen that kind of shift in the upstream sector, maybe in the last 10 years or so. So, I mean, the technological innovations that have resulted, I mean that have been quite remarkable in such a short span of time, you know particularly it optimized, you know completion designs. You know that’s something that I’m very kind of passionate about.
I mean, I’ve sort of spent my last few years of my career working on, you know, so, since now the ingredients for success in this current economic climate for operators and service companies are you know shifting, amid budget restrictions and you know we’re not talking about more is better. It’s more like what can we do with less, less resource to optimize the assets that we already have amid sort of a reduced CapEx environment.
David Vaucher: So, no, sorry, so they’re all really important points that I think just to kind of clarify something for the audience that I didn’t really, I would say I didn’t realize it but it didn’t really kind of hit me until you and I did the prep for this session is that everyone kind of instinctually knows what de-carbonization is. It’s let’s take carbon out of the supply chain. But what you’re saying actually is that when you look at that tactically that takes a lot of forms that can take new digital technologies that make things more efficient. It can mean doing more with less in the face of something like COVID that requires you to slash your Capex budget, so de-carbonization is this sort of nebulous idea that can encompass a lot of different things which hopefully we’ll get a chance to touch on here.
I think before we get to that then would it be fair to say that in your estimation based on kind of what you’ve seen oil and gas companies maybe a little bit slower than other industries to adopt the goal, right? So, I mean they’ve obviously been working towards a lot of these digitalization efforts, efficiency efforts but not necessarily with the goal of de-carbonization in mind. But would you say that that has changed in the last couple of years like with the discussions around energy transition and some of the sort of demands really from the consumers of their products. I mean, is that fair to say that it’s sort of accelerating the last couple years?
Prashanth Pillai: Absolutely, yes. That’s an accurate assessment, the state of play at the moment. I mean there’s been a lot of, sort of focus on you know these buzzwords scope one emissions, scope two emissions and that’s something that operators and service companies alike are adopting into their into language, you know when it comes to the ESG priorities. So, just to, sort of delineating scope one emissions or something are the ones that are produced you know on site in the context of oil and gas, right. So, if you have a well and you have a flare stack, you know and you’re emitting gases that you know that’s considered scope one.
And then scope two is you know emissions that are sort of indirect in the sense that you know you purchase electricity, but obviously that electricity was generated from potentially burning fossil fuels. So, this sort of paradigm shift in how they’re viewing their emissions is something that’s really important in terms of defining a strategy right, where do we need to target our emission reductions? And you know people need to realize that this involves a lot of expenses. You know trying to reduce reductions is something that is not going to come free and it’s going to be incorporated in the cost of performing activities out in the oil field.
But I think we have seen certain efforts being made. For example if you take pressure pumping providers, you know, in the last few years they’ve have adopted more stricter engine standards to develop more [indiscernible] [00:09:07] for diesel engines to ensure that the emissions from these pumping tractors are not too toxic, especially you know in places like in America and North America where factoring activities are mainly focused inland, and you know you do have highly populated dense areas, you know around a lot of oil field, you know places like, place like Texas, you know places like in the Marcellus region as well. So, you’ve seen huge shift in frac fleets, you know where you’re incorporating natural gas and diesel to power the engines and then you’re also starting to see a sort of a surge in [indiscernible] [00:09:48] fleets as well but which we can sort of discussed it further along.
David Vaucher: So, that’s a great example. And I think before we go too far of the technologies, you mentioned the costs, cost of doing this right because certainly this is another topic entirely. But if you look at [indiscernible] [00:10:06] it is more expensive depending on how you’re running in comparison, it is much more expensive than a conventional operation, right. Again, it kind of depends on the assumptions you’re making but it’s a more expensive technology. But what we talked about in the prep for this is that there are factors that are pushing service companies and operators to de-carbonized, so we can almost talk about the costs of not doing something, right. And so, can you maybe talk about the costs in, for example missing recruitment targets, right because you know we talked about the great crew change that was the big dialogue perhaps a decade ago.
What about the green crew change of people, you know, the next generation of young professionals, right? What about you know we talk about access to capital so, so can you maybe talk about some of the costs of not adopting these measures. So, these are kind of be obviously the cost of not adopting is not de-carbonizing right and energy transition and environmental concerns, all that goes along with that. But what about the other very immediate operational costs of not adopting some of these measure that you mentioned that you’re going to mention in the rest of the show.
Prashanth Pillai: You know, so, you know, operators in today’s industry are faced with a multitude of challenges, right. I mean we just sort of touched the surface. You know they’re not just about simply producing oil anymore, you know maybe like 40 years ago that was their sole priority, right. But today the whole host of other issues that need to be taken to consideration. You know they’ve got to deal with sort of investor demands, a very volatile market you know situation we’re in, you know labor issues like you touched on. And also amongst all that you know, HSC requirement is still something that they need to be enforced at a high standard.
Maybe 50 years ago, you know getting injured in the oil field was something that was people were proud of but today that’s unacceptable. So, you know while companies are shifting to, you know, to be more conscious about how they’re operating and an impact that they’re having on the environment, these underlying issues still, you know need to be focused on, you know, it’s so easy to kind of lose sight of what’s already been achieved but also taking that and then adopting another layer for how can we advance us in our operations and in a safe manner as well.
David Vaucher: Do you think any of what we’ve talked about so far does that very at all for a service companies versus operators, I mean you know we’ve talked a little bit broadly. We didn’t focus a little bit on North America with fracking, but I mean to get a little bit more specific and doing a little bit of delineation, do you think any of these considerations very materially depending on what side you’re looking on here.
Prashanth Pillai: I think it’s a very sort of interesting dynamic right because operators and awful of service companies have always had this sort of interdependency throughout the decades. I mean service companies have always been there to facilitate the technological aspect of you know well construction and developing an oil field. And so operators always leverage that. And it is no different today. I mean you’re starting to see the service companies are rebranding themselves as energy technology players. They’re no longer just service companies that you know. They’ve been developing technologies for years but how the applications of these technologies are seeing a new, a sort of a new adoption.
And service companies are realizing, okay you know there’s a lot more interest in developing non-greenhouse gas fuels but the existing technology like portfolios that we have can actually work to developing these new fuel sources. I mean if you look at for example carbon, you know CC US, sort of carbon storage, this requires drilling an injection well, you know using OCTG material, using rigs to drill, you know to blow the holes and they’re using compressive technologies, and you know, it’s no different to some of the equipment and technology that being used to extract oil and gas and process it. And so, service companies are starting to realize like we can kind of reverse engineer things using the existing sort of blueprints we have to then, okay accommodate for if you want to produce for example blue hydrogen, you know, that’s derived from natural gas.
But that still does emit greenhouse gasses, so what do we do with those greenhouse gasses? Well, one alternative is we basically store that, you know capture that carbon dioxide and then store it, you know in an empty sort of reservoir, whether that’s offshore, onshore. There’s a whole host of opportunities there. So, I still believe that operators they’re going to drive the agenda, but service companies are going to be the enablers. And this relationship it will only strengthen with further collaborations I think you know you’re starting to see a lot more operators willing to absorb the cost, you know, it’s because these are very expensive in depth, but you know service companies right now are coming off the back of a tremendous, you know, distressing time you know where their revenues have been slashed, their R&D budgets have been trimmed to kind of resize and retail for a smaller, leaner sort of upstream environment.
So, they need the support and you know the underpinning kind of financial backing from operators you know to be able to achieve this kind of, new kind of technological advancements. Otherwise I think you’re going to see a severe kind of hindrance in achieving certain targets, you know, like if people want to remove like 800 million tons of carbon in the next 10 years, you know we need to start now. You know service companies and operators need to start collaborating now to developing, you know, these technologies such as you know hydrogen electrolyze, you know, electro, you know on a large industrial scale. You know you need potentially what, 70 gigawatts of capacity in the next five to 10 years to be able to facilitate, you know the production of green hydrogen potentially.
David Vaucher: So, all of these things that process is touching on, we obviously have kind of dedicated teams that we’re sourcing this research from so, without wanting to step on their toes, if anyone in the audience has questions we will definitely get them to the right person. But I think [indiscernible] [00:16:43] up, an important point here, I mean I think we have to be realistic in the sense that individuals within service companies and operators all want to do the right thing. I mean I know, you know you and I know each other. We were trying to the best we can at work.
We want to be good stewards of the environment, our colleagues on the technical side that we know in the industry as well. But on the scale of these companies it becomes very much a bottom line consideration because like you said there’s cost to doing this. And so if we sort of flip it to a more pragmatic way of looking at things, the operators will ask for these services. The service companies if they kind of run the cost benefit may think that, hey, we can make up for some of this lost revenue by going down some of these avenues that you mentioned so. I was doing some research for report a few weeks ago and it was mentioned to me that something like half of all ROV work right now in the North Sea is for offshore wind because that’s where the work is, right.
And I think that you hear taking it back to the electric fracturing that you talked about, there’s some established pumping companies that I understand have said, well we don’t want to get in to e-fracking because that’s very expensive for us to, you know, re-work our fleets and get into it. But again what’s the cost of not doing that, you might just get left behind, right. So I think that there’s the altruism on the individual level, but I think if you look at kind of cost benefit, it might turn out that the de-carbonization makes business sense, once you get over that initial investment early. Does that sound about right to you Prash?
Prashanth Pillai: Yes, you know, I think you make a very interesting point there. You know there are, there is an argument that’s being generated by series of companies saying, you know, oh look the cost benefits just don’t make sense right now which is a fair enough statement. But I think what we need to understand is that there’s a cyclical nature in which equipment for example needs you know [indiscernible] [00:18:33] and will eventually need to be replaced. So, that existing sort of CapEx will you know what service company need to make a decision like, do we want to just continue investing in our traditional fleets, diesel powered fleets or do we start realizing, okay there’s a bit of a demand out there for more, less carbon intensive equipment, maybe we should just take that CapEx and invested in more electric fracturing or grid powered, you know, fracturing fleets.
And ultimately that decision will be driven by the customer demand. You know, I think ultimately, you know, service companies are at the mercy of operators. And if operators demanded, you know service companies have to oblige. You know there’s no but about it. So, I think what we’re seeing is a bit more of an up cycle in the adoption of more you know less carbon intensive technologies and that will drive the de-carbonization element within the oil field. But it’s not going to happen overnight. It’s something that I think there’s going to be a least three to five year transition period, especially since we’re coming off from a bit of an industry downturn where you know players are hurting.
People are financially hemorrhaging, and so they need to stabilize their finances before, and you know, I think seeing the bigger picture and so I think there’s a few distractions right now within the industry and people are not quite seeing the bigger picture. But I think once we come out of kind of smoke, we’re going to see a huge upsurge in the way people, you know start operating in sort of the different demand dynamics and the types of equipment that people want, you know, they want more efficient equipment.
So, you know the older equipment already, you know if it was developed five years ago then it might not be something that service companies can use anymore because they just don’t meet you know client or customer expectations. So, you’re going to see a huge you know attrition and rationalization in the traditional kind of fleets, you know that don’t adopt more electric powered means of operating and you know and the bigger service companies have already been working on these kind of new technologies over the last five/six years. But you know I think the uptake is that you started seeing increase in uptake of these technologies.
David Vaucher: To five years. So, the five year horizon you mentioned is interesting. And you know I apologize if I miss attributing the quote. Someone you know out there can correct me, but just of the top of my head, I think it was Bill Gates that said people tend to overestimate something like 30 or 40 years in the future of the progress that gets made in that time, but they underestimate the five years that are in front of them, right.
Prashanth Pillai: Yes, yes.
David Vaucher: So, you know, it’s sort of like if you put yourself back I don’t know in 2002 and you thought well in you know 2040, we’re going to have flying cars and you know computer chips in our brains, well, we’re not there yet but we did get the iPhone in 2007 and that was kind of a huge step change, right. That was a very, a huge, huge leap in progress, right. So, certainly for upstream it could be that in 2025 we see a landscape that looks very different than what we’re seeing now and maybe something that actually looks more like what we think 2040 or 2050 would look like because of that you know people tend to, yes, they tend to underestimate the five year timeline. So, it’s an interesting assessment that you put.
You know one thing that I do want to talk about because we’ve covered you know some of the drivers of the de-carbonization. You’ve mentioned some of the technologies digitalization, e-fracking. The group that we’re in is cost and technology but really what we’re focusing on his supply chain. So, before we wrap up would you mind maybe again talking broadly about what are the supply chain specifically, supply chain specific implications for both operators and service companies of working some of these new technologies and best practices in.
Prashanth Pillai: Yes, I mean like I already kind of mention, you know supplies are facing hard times you know, they’re battling tight margins you know there’s this huge sort of pressure on them to cut their costs, to sort of get in alignment with the pricing situation at the moment. You know, so there will be sort of clear winners and losers. You know you’re going to see the kind of rationalization of suppliers. But the way that supplies can offset these kinds of downsides is by adopting digitalization, you know and additive manufacturing. You know these are sort of new kind of best practices that are being touted as being able to save manufacturers and suppliers a lot of money.
Otherwise you’re just going to see companies just fade away. You know if you don’t adapt they’re just going to go extinct. So, I think in the future you’re going to see less, sort of players in the market. You know there’s going to be reduced choices, maybe in the short term but that you might see an uptick later on in the decade. So, right now but you know there’s already a supply overhang, you know, companies are based cannibalizing equipment so that you know they can increase their pricing, otherwise they’re just not going to be able to survive the next few years, especially, you know that there are other elements of their costs increasing, you know labor costs. I mean we’ve seen sort of huge shift in the labor market within the oil and gas industry and where people left, and then when activity eventually picks up to a more stabilized level you’re going to see a shortage.
And so service companies and supplies are going to face you know serious labor challenges so you know those costs potentially are going to go up. So, these sort of factors are something that you know people, operators are keeping in mind, and you know, to be able to address those situations, it’s going to involve people really enhancing their logistics, you know in reducing costs, maybe you know like I mentioned about additive sort of manufacturing, that’s something that maybe it can be brought closer to locations, you know to where the activity is actually occurring.
So, that will reduce logistics but then that will also reduce you know carbon emissions, you know because you’re not relying on huge freight services or you know delivery services of parts and what not over long distances anymore. And so all of these factors are actually really playing into the current, you know mirroring the trends that are happening, you know like people are demanding de-carbonization of their operations and these are ways that’s going to happen eventually over time, yes.
David Vaucher: It sounds like short term pain in logistics and labor and costs. But with the hope obviously of long term gain of more efficient season and less carbon out of the supply chain and out of operations as well. Yes, great. Well, so Prash, we have I think run out of time in terms of the material that we’re going to talk about, but for the audience out there I’d like to try something new. So, I listened to quite a few podcasts in my spare time and I’m going to rip off a final segment from one of them. So, it’s called [indiscernible] [00:25:51]. It’s a French podcasts. But in order to, I guess and on kind of a fun note, and in order for me to get to know my guest better and for the audience to get to know our experts better, I’ve got three questions I’m going to ask Prash and then I’ll ask those to every subsequent guest that’s on upstream in perspective.
So, Prash, I will be up front. I did give you a little bit of time, so I don’t think this is going to, I give you a little bit of time up front to think about these, so not quite spontaneous. But let’s start with the first question. So, what are your three essentials that you have to have in life? I mean what are the three things that every day kind of keep you going and make you happy?
Prashanth Pillai: Oh my, a beer at the end of the day, yes.
David Vaucher: Okay, fair, yes.
Prashanth Pillai: I mean, I suppose like, you know we live in such a technologically oriented well, you know where we’re just constantly sort of fixated with our phones or our you know apple watches and, but I think for me, I mean I’m quite minimalist in a sense, you know I don’t like having, you know owning a lot of possessions, I’m quite simple in that way. But you know, for me, you know, I like collecting beanies and hats. So, during the winter and I’m always wearing a beanie and occasionally I get trashed at wearing a beanie during, you know when it’s 40 degree weather in the summer. But that’s just that how I like to roll.
David Vaucher: It’s an essential.
Prashanth Pillai: That sure, isn’t it? You know, but I do collect the ray bands sunglasses. So, that’s, you know something that I’m very passionate about. But other essential I think, it’s just being quite humble and just being, you know like being for, you know for everything that you have and you know and just being grateful, given there’s so much distress going on in the world, you know, but.
David Vaucher: Very good. I like that. So, a beer, some fashion accessories which we should talked about more because I can’t share those essential and a sense of gratitude. That’s a good one. I like that.
Prashanth Pillai: Yes.
David Vaucher: All right, next question. So, we talked a little bit about kind of traveling in our minds the beginning show, but what is a place that you know prior to you know everything that’s happened and certainly after we’re all through this, what is your happy place like, where would we find you in your best mood when this is all over?
Prashanth Pillai: You know besides from wanting to desperately be home in Australia, I think you know I enjoy traveling a lot. You know I get major wonder lust on a daily basis. You know I’m looking at people’s Instagram and like oh, I just wish I was there, you know and, but there’s one particular, you know country I really want to visit is Iceland. You know it’s been on the agenda for years but just never had the opportunity. I think just you know the visceral landscapes and I’ll listen to a lot of Icelandic musicians and their music conveys that the emotions and just how sort of tranquil Iceland looks. And so yes, definitely, you know, I was telling my wife you know as soon as the choice travel bans are lifted up, we’re booking a flight to Iceland.
David Vaucher: You’re going to Iceland? Good, fantastic. All right, last question, which is going to be something hopefully that the audience can share it with you. But what is one piece of content you have consumed recently that you’d like to put out there. So, book, podcast, movie, anything, what’s that, what’s something you’ve really enjoyed in your personal time?
Prashanth Pillai: Oh, just too many to choose from David. I mean because I mean this last few months it’s all I’ve been doing it and exploring the content.
David Vaucher: Sure.
Prashanth Pillai: Oh, in my spare time. But I think one particular podcast that I’ve been obsessed with this one called Song Exploder. If anyone’s come across there on Spotify, what essentially is each episode is dedicated to one sort of iconic song, that’s you know then, you know it could be, it could have been written four years ago, it could been written 10 years ago but you know they basically invite the artist, musicians, the producers who worked on the track to come and basically dissect the entire song down to its bare bones.
And it’s so fascinating to hear these creative minds you know discussing and you know how they created something from just you know like a simple melody to its final product. And I mean, I’m musically inclined, you know I’m very, I’m a musician myself, and so it’s something that I’m very, very interested in and understanding the song writing process, production qualities and everything. So, it inspires me a lot, you know, so, one day, one day, yes, one day I’ll composed mine.
David Vaucher: That’s awesome. So, real quick, part B to this, what was the favorite story or what was the favorite song and story behind the song that you [indiscernible] [00:30:45].
Prashanth Pillai: Oh, I think that there was an episode on Led Zeppelin, Robert Plant, and he was talking about Stairway to heaven.
David Vaucher: Okay, very good, very good.
Prashanth Pillai: I mean, I’ve heard of stories regarding you know the genesis of that song. But just hearing it from Robert Plant talking about it you know how they were in this house you know it was just Jimmy Page and him and in front of a fire and it just the song just morphed, you know, just was there, then and there was birth, you know, and it’s just fascinating listening to him, even talking about it like 40/50 years later it just seems so ingrained and you know and fresh in his mind. So it was great.
David Vaucher: [Indiscernible] [00:31:35], if you’re guitar player you know you’re forbidden from playing that any guitar. That’s always the joke. But I know that that’s excellent. Great. So, I think just to wrap this up, bring this back to the original topic of the show. So, we’ve talked about de-carbonization being a top priority for operators and service companies, the hypothesis that [indiscernible] [00:31:58] is that operators will be kind of leading the way but this presents an opportunity for service companies to maybe make up some of the revenues that they’ve lost in their legacy oil and gas portfolios. We’ve also covered some of the technologies that might enable this de-carbonization as well as the costs of not adopting them, right because long term if we don’t go down this oil operator and service companies don’t go down this path, they may end up not having a place in the new upstream landscape. And finally of course we said that there are increased costs in logistics considerations in the short term. But in the long term again the idea is getting to this new upstream landscape. And we’ve also learned that if you would like to know how to put together an outfit Prash is the guy that you want to call. So, Prash, thanks so much for your time on the show. It was a great catching up with you. And for all the audience out there that is listening to us, we do hope that you’re staying productive but especially that you’re staying well and healthy. And as usual if you have any questions about any of the material on the show, you can feel to drop me a [indiscernible] [00:33:00], we’ll have our contact information in the show notes. And with that we look forward to seeing you again on the next episode of Upstream In Perspective. Thanks so much Prash. Thanks everyone.
Prashanth Pillai: [Indiscernible] [00:33:13] David.
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