Maritime & Trade Brisbane Briefing 2019
Tuesday,21 January 2020
Coal demand continues to grow, but more volatile than ever
James Stevenson, Senior Director, Global Coal
Coal demand - but thermal and coking - continues to grow globally, but the growth trajectory is volatile, as strong import demand from India and Southeast Asia is offset by variable declines in Chinese imports, alongside a steady decline in Europe. Even in growth areas, the outlook is somewhat uncertain, with a steady stream of governments announcing retirement targets and new regulations favoring cleaner fuels. Meanwhile, on the supply side, coal is suffering from weak investment levels that risk challenging adequate supply availability.
Dry Bulk Freight Market Outlook
Daejin Lee, Principal Analyst
With all the disruptions and changes in regulations affecting the dry bulk freight market, the new trade pattern has emerged and could have significant impact in different sizes over different seasons. Daejin will discuss on:
- The importance in US grain season for Panamax and Supramax has weakened significantly due to US-China trade war and now all eyes are on south American and Black sea grain season over 2nd and 3rd quarter of the year.
- Chinese iron ore and coal restocking season is moving from the end of the 4th quarter to early 4th quarter or even 3rd quarter as Chinese policies on steel production and coal import control in winter season continue to be uncertain for Chinese buyers.
- The trade currently favors smaller ships. However, there is still hope for larger ships in the near future as lack of dry bulk demand in Europe will attract Atlantic dry cargoes into the Asian market. Also, expensive fuel costs after IMO 2020 sulfur regulation will favor larger ships for long distance trade.