Global Economics and Country Risk Strategy Summit

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Thursday, Apr 12, 2018

    • 7:30 amRegistration and Breakfast
    • 8:20 amWelcoming Remarks

      Zbyszko Tabernacki, Senior Vice President, Economics and County Risk, IHS Markit

    • 8:30 amWith Growth Strong and Labor Markets Tightening, Should We Be Worried About Overheating in the Global Economy?

      Nariman Behravesh, Chief Economist, IHS Markit

      In a welcome change from the past few years, global growth is strong, economic slack is diminishing, and there are early signs that inflation is beginning to rise. This increases the risk that central banks might be “behind the curve” and may have to tighten sooner and more than financial markets expect. This could do serious damage to the global expansion.

    • 9:10 amThe US Tax Cuts & Jobs Act: Macro impacts, market implications

      Joel Prakken, Chief US Economist, IHS Markit

      Following the recently enacted Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, IHS Markit evaluates if the reforms provide a foundation for continued strength in the US economy. Both today and in the future, there will be implications for equity markets, credit spreads, the US dollar, and the treasury yield curve.

    • 9:45 amCoffee Break
    • 10:00 amWhat Might Precipitate the Next Recession?

      Nariman Behravesh, Chief Economist, IHS Markit
      Joel Prakken, Chief US Economist, IHS Markit
      Giles Keating, Founder-partner, Werthstein AG

      With growth in the developed world looking very strong and inflation in the United States finally showing signs of life, what is the risk that the Fed and other central banks will further raise interests? Has this increased the risk of recession in the next couple of years? What other risks should we be worried about?

    • 11:00 amThe European Goldilocks Scenario: Too good to be true?

      Elisabeth Waelbroeck Rocha, Chief International Economist, IHS Markit
      Laurence Allen, Director, Country Risk, IHS Markit
      Ken Wattret, Chief European Economist, IHS Markit
      External speaker: TBA

      European economic growth has finally picked up after years of disappointing results. Real GDP growth in the Eurozone was confirmed at 0.6% in fourth-quarter 2017, confidence indicators are approaching decennial peaks, and PMIs are pointing to continued, fast growth ahead. Nevertheless, several challenges remain - the relationship between the European Union and the United Kingdom after Brexit, still-high debt levels across Europe, the strong(er) euro, and political challenges, including euro skepticism in several Eastern European countries and separatist pressures in Spain. This session will take a critical look at recent developments, as well as review potential risks and the measures taken by markets and businesses in anticipation of upcoming challenges.

    • 12:00 pmLunch
    • 1:15 pmNext Market Opportunities

      Brian Lawson, Senior Consultant, Banking, Economics and Country Risk, IHS Markit
      Carlos Caicedo, Senior Principal Analyst, Country Risk, IHS Markit
      Keerti Rajan, Director, Asia-Pacific, Country Risk, IHS Markit

      This session will look at significant potential new business and investment opportunities globally in the 1–3-year horizon. It will focus on so-called “renaissance” countries like Brazil and Argentina, which are showing signs of recovery after severe difficulties, and on the impact of China’s “One Belt One Road” initiative on China itself and other countries involved in its rollout.

      We will consider what PMIs suggest will take place in the coming year and beyond, and identify key indicators to monitor changes to the expected regional trajectory and the associated potential for next market opportunities.

    • 2:45 pmBreak
    • Known and Hidden Risks, and Impact to Strategy
    • 3:00 pmAfrica: Outlook for Debt Sustainability and Key Implications

      Natznet Tesfay, Director of Africa Research, Economics and County Risk, IHS Markit

      The rapid pace of debt accumulation over the past few years across sub-Saharan Africa has raised concerns around the various governments ability and willingness to prudently manages their liabilities, particularly in a context of monetary policy normalization in the United States, United Kingdom, and Eurozone. Based on our examination of key criteria, such as use of proceeds, growth potential, commodity price developments, and likely progress with fiscal consolidation efforts, IHS Markit will identify which sub-Saharan markets face increased exposure to debt distress and associated risks versus those on a more resilient trajectory.

    • 3:45 pmMiddle East: Navigating Economic and Violent Risks and Their Interplay

      Firas Modad, Director, Middle East & North Africa, Country Risk, IHS Markit

      Examining the economic and social vulnerabilities of Middle East countries, government policies intended to address these vulnerabilities, and possible game-changing scenarios in countries like Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Turkey, and their potential impact on investors.

    • 4:30 pmClosing Remarks

      Zbyszko Tabernacki, Senior Vice President, Economics and County Risk, IHS Markit

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