IHS Markit Global Economics and Country Risk Conference

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Thursday, Oct 01, 2015

    • 7:30 amRegistration
    • 8:30 amWelcome

      Zbyszko Tabernacki, Vice President, IHS Economics & Country Risk

    • 8:40 amHow much longer is the global economy likely to be stuck in low gear?

      Nariman Behravesh, Chief Economist, IHS

      Since 2012, global growth has been stuck at around 2.5% a year.  Is this the proverbial "new normal" or is this simply the long recovery from a financial crisis? While the developed economies are gradually recovering, there are growing concerns that the emerging world may not be able to return to the rapid growth rates of the 2000s. Low growth is not inevitable, but it will require good macro- and micro-economic policies, including structural reforms.

    • 9:30 amThe 2016 election, issues, and candidates

      Nariman Behravesh, Chief Economist, IHS

      David Wessel, Director, Hutchins Center on Fiscal & Monetary Policy, Brookings Institution

    • 10:15 amCoffee Break
    • 10:30 amRaising potential: Can the US economy do better than 2.0-2.5% growth?

      Sara Johnson, Senior Research Director, IHS Economics

      Paul Thomas, Chief Economist, Intel Corporation

      In recent years, both actual and potential US economic growth have disappointed, while productivity performance has been dismal. Potential (full-employment) output growth has slowed from over 4% in 2000 to under 2% in 2010-15. The drivers of potential growth - labor supply, capital formation, R&D, innovation, venture finance, and public policy - will be assessed. A strong revival in total factor productivity growth will be key to raising long-run growth and prosperity. Can rapid innovation in the information and communications technology industry spark an acceleration in productivity growth and lift US economic growth above its 2.0-2.5% trend?

    • 11:15 amWhat's next for Europe?

      Elisabeth Waelbroeck-Rocha, Chief International Economist, IHS

      Jacob Funk Kirkegaard, Senior Fellow, Peterson Institute for International Economics

    • 12:00 pmLunch
    • 1:30 pmWhat are the industry-level impacts of a persistently strong dollar?

      Zbyszko Tabernacki, Vice President, IHS Economics & Country Risk

      Daniel J. Meckstroth Ph.D, Vice President and Chief Economist, Council Director, Manufacturer's Alliance for Productivity and Innovation

      The dramatic appreciation of the dollar against the majority of trading partners’ currencies, as well as the slowdown in demand in key emerging markets, have put significant pressure on the financial performance of US-based multinationals. While the overall impact on the US economy so far has been limited, profits suffered and capital investment plans needed to be curtailed. This panel will explore the implications of the current external environment for short-term business strategies and long term investment plans across a number of industries. 

    • 2:15 pmThe China slowdown and its impact on Asia

      Todd Lee, Senior Director, IHS Economics

      Bree Neff, Senior Economist, IHS Economics

      David Dollar, Senior Fellow, Foreign Policy, Global Economy and Development, John L. Thornton China Center, Brookings Institution

      China's once indomitable economy is struggling, facing enormous cyclical headwinds and structural problems. The Chinese government therefore has to contend with the daunting challenge of balancing stable near-term economic growth and impactful long-term structural reforms. How China sails through these troubled waters will have lasting consequences. This session assesses China's near term outlook, reform progress, and long term growth prospects. The session will also examine how China's downturn and transition will impact Asia.

    • 2:45 pmCoffee Break
    • 3:00 pmGrowth opportunities, emerging threats and corporate strategies: The outlook for the Middle East, Africa and other emerging markets

      Kirsten Parker, Senior Director, IHS Country Risk

      Ravi Vish, Director and Chief Economist, Economics and Sustainability Group, Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency, The World Bank

      What are the key global drivers of political risk in emerging markets and the implications for businesses and supply chains? There are a range of emergent geopolitical developments that have the potential to shock and shape global markets. We will forecast the outlook for some of these key political risks, including the spread of the Islamic State and the impact on infrastructure and corporate security, the growth of social media and civil unrest in Sub-Saharan Africa and the potential for an 'African Summer', and the political impact of changes in commodity prices.

    • 4:15 pmClosing Remarks

      Zbyszko Tabernacki, Vice President, IHS Economics & Country Risk

    • 4:30 pmConference Close
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