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7th Annual Asia Chemical Conference (incorporating the Acrylonitrile, Derivatives & Fibres Conference)

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Agenda subject to change

Wednesday,06 November 2019

  • 8:00 AM Registration and Refreshments
  • 6:00 PM Workshops End

Thursday,07 November 2019

  • 7:30 AM Registration and Welcome Refreshments
  • 8:45 AM Welcome Remarks
    • Mark Eramo, Vice President, Global Chemical Business Development, IHS Markit
    • Simon Garmston, Senior Director, Acrylonitrile, IHS Markit
  • Session I

    Moderator: Mark Eramo, Vice President, Global Chemical Business Development, IHS Markit

    • 8:50 AM The Economy and Geopolitics: Impact on Oil and Chemicals

      Tony Potter, Vice President, Specialty Chemicals, IHS Markit

    • 9:15 AM Crude Oil Markets: A New Reality

      Victor Shum, Vice President, Energy Consulting, IHS Markit

      Mr. Shum will discuss the new reality confronting global oil markets:

      • Rapid unconventional oil development has driven the US to be the world's largest oil producer. US crude export requirement will climb quickly. Finding a market for all this crude - most of which is light, sweet - could be challenging. US crude prices may have to be discounted further to encourage demand, especially as many of Asia's big new refineries were designed to run Middle Eastern sour grades.
      • Oil prices are currently in an unsteady state, buffeted by rising geopolitical and economic conflicts. In the long term, a $60/bbl Brent price level (in real terms) appears enough to incentivize supply to balance demand. Considering how much low- and medium-cost tight oil will be produced across the long-term supply horizon, the required volume of high-cost barrels (above $70/bbl on a full-cycle basis) to balance demand is minimal.
      • Key Gulf OPEC countries are low-cost producers but require high oil prices to cover budgetary needs. A prolonged period of low oil prices would increase the potential for socioeconomic instability in these countries, leading to either actual supply disruptions or heightened market concern about the security of supply. Either circumstance would eventually put upward pressure on oil prices.
    • 9:40 AM Positioning for Growth in the New Decade Against Global Headwinds

      Dick Richelle, President, Asia and the Middle East Division, Vopak

    • 10:05 AM Panel Discussion/ Q&A

      Moderator: Mark Eramo, Vice President, Global Business Development, Oil, Mid-Downstream and Chemicals (OMDC), IHS Markit

  • 10:15 AM Networking Break
  • Session II

    Moderator: Tony Potter, Vice President, Specialty Chemicals, IHS Markit

    • 10:35 AM State of the Global Energy and Chemical Industries

      Mark Eramo, Vice President, Global Chemical Business Development, IHS Markit

      How will the industry position for what comes next as geo-political headwinds slow economic growth and drive energy market volatility? This paper will provide an overview on demand outlook, including the impact of IMO low sulphur bunker fuel in 2020; peak oil demand and a renewed push for refinery-petchem plan integration; NGL supply outlook and impact on global markets; the surge in global petrochemical capacity with focus on the conventional investment wave underway in China; and an update on the petrochemical profit-cycle.

    • 11:00 AM Crude Oil to Chemicals: A New Benchmark for Global Petrochemical and Refinery?

      RJ Chang, Vice President and Executive Director, Process Economics Program, OMDC, IHS Markit

      This presentation will provide the latest crude oil-to-chemicals (COTC) projects status and offer insights into COTC technology, operations and production economics using Zhejiang Petroleum and Chemical (ZPC) Phase I project as a case study. The ZPC project, despite its focus on PX, also captures all available C2-C5 hydrocarbons and light naphtha to be fed to its worldscale steam cracker. This results in more competitive economics not only for PX but also for ethylene production. It thus has the potential to become a new benchmark for the global petrochemical industry. On the other hand, COTC is a refinery configured to maximize chemicals production, and has the possibility to become the ultimate refinery petrochemical integration serving as a benchmark for refineries as they aspire to produce more chemicals and less fuels. We will compare the economics of the Zhejiang COTC with a few real refineries with various degrees of chemical production based on our original research.

    • 11:25 AM Panel Discussion/ Q&A
    • 11:35 AM The Circular Economy: Driving Profitability in the Move Towards Sustainability

      Rajesh Gauba, Vice-President - Recycling and Sustainability, Reliance Industries

    • 12:00 AM Pathway to the Circular Economy
      Sreepad Karanam, Senior Manager, Corporate Sustainability Strategy, SABIC
    • 12:15 PM Panel Discussion/ Q&A

      Moderator: Tony Potter, Vice President, Specialty Chemicals, IHS Markit

  • 12:25 PM Networking Lunch
  • Three Parallel Breakout Sessions: Olefins & Derivatives; Aromatics & Derivatives; Acrylonitrile, Derivatives & Fibres
  • Session 1: Olefins & Derivatives

    Moderator: Mark Eramo, Vice President, Global Chemical Business Development, IHS Markit

    • 1:45 PM Propylene: Impact of Alternative Propylene Production

      Jinsu Yim, Executive Director, Asia Olefins, IHS Markit

      Expected decreasing operation from steam crackers and refineries due to weak demand and increased new capacities. On-purpose propylene will grow in importance for propylene balance including coal/methanol and dehydrogenation.

    • 2:10 PM Ethylene: Production Pull-Backs Balance Demand

      Steve Lewandowski, Vice President, Olefins, IHS Markit

      Demand has softened due to the global economic slowdown while supply capacity is coming quicker due to high construction productivity in China. Can coal chemistry in China compete, or does capacity rationalization close the balance elsewhere around the globe?

    • 2:35 PM NGLs - Ethane and LPG in Asia

      Yanyu He, Executive Director, Asia Pacific and Middle East NGLs, IHS Markit

      The surge in US LPG exports has fundamentally changed the global LPG trade pattern, also reshaping the regional LPG price relationships. The trade dispute between the US and China has further complicated the dynamic. We will discuss how Asia and global LPG demand will absorb the incremental supply from the US and other growing markets such as the Middle East and Australia.

      US ethane availability is also growing, driven by upstream oil and gas developments. The NGL infrastructure constraint and strong ethane demand growth from new crackers online in the US drove up ethane prices in 2018 but, over time, we expect the market to adapt and keep US ethane prices generally tracking natural gas.

    • 3:00 PM Panel Discussion/ Q&A

      Moderator: Mark Eramo, Vice President, Global Chemical Business Development, IHS Markit

    • 3:15 PM Networking Break

      Moderator: Tony Potter, Vice President, Specialty Chemicals, IHS Markit

    • 3:45 PM C4 and Elastomer Market Outlook

      Anthony Song, Director, Asia C4s and Elastomer, IHS Markit

      This presentation will provide global overview for c4 and elastomers market. Will give outlook for vehicle production growth for important regions, especially in China. Will look at the changes in supply demand balance outlook for each region amid upcoming massive new butadiene capacities and regional price forecast. Will also look at upcoming butadiene derivative capacities and expected growth rates for next few years. Will be also looking at natural rubber market outlook.

    • 4:15 PM Global PE

      Utpal Sheth, Executive Director, Plastics, IHS Markit

    • 4:45 PM Polypropylene Outlook - Preparing for a Changing Market

      JP Nah, Director, Polyolefins, IHS Markit

      Polypropylene market is changing from a tight supply market to a balance to oversupply in the next few years. The increase in supply amid weaker demand market will create new challenges for producers.

      Market players must prepare for the new change to brace the impact of increasing supply.
      In this presentation, we will look at what are the key factors that affected this change.

      Key factors to be discussed are :

      • Impact of new wave of capacity
      • What will be the demand outlook
      • Can producers continue to keep high margins and operating rates?
      • New regulations that are affecting demand for PP
      • Prospect of new investment in Asia
    • 5:15 PM Panel Discussion/ Q&A

      Moderator: Steve Lewandowski, Vice President, Olefins, IHS Markit

  • Session 2: Aromatics & Derivatives

    Moderator: Ashish Pujari, Executive Director, IHS Markit

    • 1:45 PM Petrochemical Feedstock Outlook – A Tale Of Two Markets

      Premashish Das, Executive Director, IHS Markit

      With rapid increase in US ethane, propane, and butane, the dependence on refinery-originated naphtha has reduced in recent years. On the other hand, slowing demand growth of refined products will lead to lower crude runs in the long term. How will reduced crude runs of future influence the supply of light and heavy naphtha, meeting the strong demand growth of petrochemical feedstock? What are the implications of supply-side and demand-side drivers on naphtha supply, trade and pricing?

    • 2:10 PM Surprise Upturn for Benzene: Will It Continue?

      Omi Tatsuo, Executive Director, Asia Aromatics, IHS Markit

      The benzene market was stable and strong through early 2018, driving the benzene-to-naphtha spread to beyond $300/mt and giving benzene producers high margins. However, the benzene market collapsed from April 2018 due to a sharp increase in benzene production from PX integrated reformer/TA plants and naphtha crackers amid softending demand caused by turnarounds at styrene, phenol and caprolactam plants. The resulting decline in benzene margins was not a serious issue then because of strong PX markets and robust ethylene margins. The story has changed this year, however, as PX and olefins margins have both fallen and already low benzene margins closed up. Why then was there a recovery in March this year of the Asia benzene market especially in light of the impending wave of benzene capacity from a large-scale PX plant and naphtha cracker? Will the recovery continue, or is benzene headed for another collapse?

    • 2:35 PM Para-xylene Update

      Duncan Clark, Vice President, Global Aromatics, IHS Markit

    • 3:00 PM Panel Discussion/ Q&A

      Moderator: Ashish Pujari, Executive Director, IHS Markit

    • 3:15 PM Networking Break

      Moderator: Duncan Clark, Vice President, Global Aromatics, IHS Markit

    • 3:45 PM PTA and Polyester Market Outlook

      Wei Ding, Director, Polyester Chain, IHS Markit

    • 4:15 PM Prospects for EO and EG

      Alan Lu, Director, China Aromatics & Asia Glycols, IHS Markit

    • 4:45 PM Sustainability in the Polyester Value Chain

      Ashish Pujari, Executive Director - Global Polyester & Asia Aromatics, IHS Markit

    • 5:15 PM Panel Discussion/ Q&A

      Moderator: Duncan Clark, Vice President, Global Aromatics, IHS Markit

  • Session 3: Acrylonitrile, Derivatives & Fibres

    Moderator: Simon Garmston, Global Director, Acrylonitrile, IHS Markit

    • 1:45 PM Propylene Market Outlook (this session takes place in the olefins breakout room)

      Jinsu Yim, Executive Director, Asia Olefins, IHS Markit

    • 2:15 PM Panel Discussion: Acrylic Fibre
      • Moderator: Simon Garmston, Global Director, Acrylonitrile, IHS Markit
      • Stefan Braun, CEO, Dralon
      • Alfredo Mora, Director General, Kaltex Fibres
    • 2:45 PM Ammonia Outlook: Implications for Acrylonitrile

      Georgy Eliseev, Principal Analyst - Ammonia, Fertecon, IHS Markit Agribusiness Intelligence; Charles Costerousse, Analyst - Ammonia, Fertecon, IHS Markit

      This presentation will include the analysis of the ammonia supply and demand drivers, the importance of ammonia as feedstock for the acrylonitrile industry and the significance of acrylonitrile segment as market for ammonia. The outlook will provide recent data and forecasts for the global ammonia market and regional markets, and prospects for the future ammonia market.

    • 3:15 PM Networking Break

      Moderator: Simon Garmston, Senior Director, Acrylonitrile, IHS Markit

    • 3:45 PM Nylon 66 versus Nylon 6

      Meiko Wu, Director, Nylon, IHS Markit

    • 4:15 PM Propylene Panel: Market Outlook and Impact on Acrylonitrile

      Panelists:

      • Steve Lewandowski, Vice President, Olefins, IHS Markit
      • Jinsu Yim, Director, Asia Olefins, IHS Markit
    • 4:45 PM A Producer Perspective of Acrylonitrile

      Motoshi Nukita, General Manager, Acrylonitrile Marketing, Basic Materials SBU, Asahi Kasei Corporation

    • 5:15 PM First Ever Sustainable Acrylonitrile Enabling Sustainable End Products

      Pieter Boon, CEO, AnQore

  • 5:30 PM Day One Concludes
  • 5:45 PM Networking Cocktails

Friday,08 November 2019

  • 8:00 AM Registration and Refreshments
  • Three Parallel Breakout Sessions: Olefins & Derivatives; Aromatics & Derivatives; Acrylonitrile, Derivatives & Fibres
  • Session 1: Olefins & Derivatives
    • 9:00 AM Day 2 Opening Remarks

      Moderator: Steve Lewandowski, Vice President, Olefins, IHS Markit

    • 9:05 AM Crude-to-Chemicals: Refinery-Petchem Integration Impact on the Market

      Sanjay Sharma, Vice President, Middle East and India, IHS Markit

      Presentation will focus on the implications and opportunities associated with the higher level of refinery-petchem integration and developments related to crude-to-chemicals. With concerns around global base oil demand plateauing by late 2030s, there is increased focus on the refinery/petchem integration. Chemical demand on the other hand is expected to continue to grow at around GDP parity level. That essentially means increased focus of IOCs/NOCs on building their chemical portfolio. With higher level of refinery/petchem integration, industry landscape is expected to change as scale is unprecedent. Feedstock mix too is expected to change with Naphtha as feedstock for Ethylene trending higher. On the other hand, markets can handle only few of these projects due to the scale. It is critical for the industry participants to understand the impact and adjust their strategic plans accordingly.

    • 9:35 AM Methanol Market Critical Issues and Development

      Xiaomeng Ma, Associate Director,IHS Markit

      As the methanol production and consumption center, Asia has always been a critical market. The sustained volatility in methanol prices has influenced the competitive landscape and trading behaviors of methanol players in Asia. Policy has been a key influence in the development of the methanol industry. Asia is the target market for additional methanol capacity - does China continue to play the role of leading market player in the long term?

      We are already in the middle of the second wave of MTO development which has experienced some economic challenges in the past few years. Which methanol application could be the game changer in the next decade? This presentation will focus on the factors impacting the market, as well as the growth drivers in Asia. Key points:

      • Asia and China methanol market update
      • Methanol fuel
      • The impact of environmental control and policy on fuels applications
      • MTO sector overview
      • Asian methanol trade
    • 10:05 AM Vinyls Chain: Asian EDC, VCM, and PVC

      Gordon Kuo, Associate Director, IHS Markit

      Asia imports about 84% of ethylene dichloride (EDC), 59% of vinyl chloride monomer (VCM), and 43% of polyvinyl chloride (PVC). The EDC trade flow in Asia has changed based on the trade war between the US and China. Are there any newcomers or dropout players in Asia in terms of EDC demand? The VCM oversupply effect in Asia has come to an end this year. The PVC and VCM spread will become lower compared with the past two years. Strong PVC demand is still anticipated in India for the next few years; where to find the supply when most Asian producers are in high utilization and less expansion?

    • 10:35 AM Networking Break

      Moderator: Tony Potter, Vice President, Specialty Chemicals, IHS Markit

    • 11:00 AM Rare Earth: Not So Rare, But Rationed!

      Adam Gao, Associate Director, IHS Markit

      The rare earths are a group of 17 metallic elements in the periodic table including the Lanthanides from Lanthanum to Lutetium, plus the closely related elements Scandium and Yttrium. An overview for the global rare earth market, with a focus on the supply and demand aspects is given in the presentation. China sets up mining quota for rare earths annually and dominates rare earth smelting and separation industry, especially for the heavy rare earth products. Key drivers of rare earth industry are in permanent magnets. Wind power industry and vehicle industry are two important markets for permanent magnets.

    • 11:30 PM Overview of Oxo-Alcohols and Acrylic Acid Derivatives

      Mike Park, Associate Director, Asia Olefins/Acrylates, IHS Markit

  • Session 2: Aromatics & Derivatives
    • 9:00 AM Day 2 Opening Remarks

      Moderator: Duncan Clark, Vice President, Global Aromatics, IHS Markit

    • 9:05 AM The Calm Before the Storm

      Brian Lee, Executive Director, Asia Aromatics, IHS Markit

      Styrene prices have been relatively stable in 2019 despite feedstock prices fluctuations. Limited capacity additions and fewer unplanned shutdowns this year compared to the last several years contributed to stable prices and positive margins. Will this scenario be here to stay? Or is this merely the calm before the storm? Looking forward, Asia will see a significant increase in new capacity for styrene. Margins for styrene producers will very likely be squeezed due to the additional capacity coming online and slower demand growth in line with a weakening global economy. Trade flows could change further due to increasing Chinese capacity and protectionism laws in key markets. The styrenics industry has grown steadily and enjoyed healthy margins but it will be a challenge to survive the next couple of years as we foresee 2020 to be the period of rapid change.

    • 9:35 AM Perspective of Cumene, Phenol and Acetone

      Terence Peh, Principal Analyst, IHS Markit

    • 10:05 AM Nylon and Feedstocks

      Manjun Song, Deputy General Manager, Fujian Shenyuan New Materials Co. Ltd; General Manager, Fibrant (Shanghai) Chemical Co.,Ltd."

    • 10:35 AM Networking Break

      Moderator: Ashish Pujari, Executive Director, IHS Markit

    • 11:00 AM Polyurethanes: Prospects for MDI/TDI and PO

      See Yan Wong, Director, Asia Polyurethanes, IHS Markit

    • 11:30 AM Evolution of Asia Petchems Benchmark

      Sok Peng Chua, Director/Petrochemicals, OPIS, IHS Markit

  • Session 3: Acrylonitrile, Derivatives & Fibres

    Moderator: Simon Garmston, Senior Director, Acrylonitrile, IHS Markit

    • 9:00 AM Day 2 Opening Remarks

      Moderator: Simon Garmston, Senior Director, Acrylonitrile, IHS Markit

    • 9:05 AM Acrylonitrile: A China Perspective

      Jin Baoyuan, Deputy Commercial Director & Nitriles Business Manager, Shanghai Secco Petrochemical Company Limited

    • 9:35 AM The Next Paradigm Shift in ABS Market

      Daniel Siow, Director, IHS Markit

      We live in a world of uncertainty, deepening trade and geopolitical tensions are transforming the way we do business. To that end, we need to rethink how to manage a slew of interruptions and developments arising from rising protectionism. Organizations must adapt to disruptions in global supply chains, the ABS industry will not be spared. Environmental issues are also on the rise. Will global effort to reduce plastic waste sent to the ocean, landfills and incinerators impact consumption of ABS? This presentation offers an insight to golden opportunity of the next paradigm shift. Every cloud has a silver lining, but one must stay ahead of the curve to be successful.

    • 10:05 AM Polyester and Cotton Update

      Ashish Pujari, Executive Director - Global Polyester & Asia Aromatics, IHS Markit; Kieran Garland, Principal Analyst, Acrylonitrile, IHS Markit

    • 10:35 AM Networking Break
    • 11:00 AM Acrylonitrile & Derivatives Global Outlook

      Simon Garmston, Senior Director, Acrylonitrile, IHS Markit; Kieran Garland, Principal Analyst, Acrylonitrile, IHS Markit

  • 12:00 PM Networking Lunch
  • 1:00 PM Conference Ends
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