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Wednesday,23 October 2019

  • 8:45 AM Day 1

    Analysts from IHS Markit will present the latest price and wage outlook during this one-day seminar. We will discuss the latest buying environment for commodities, wage and other spend categories relevant to the oil and gas sector. Topics will include metal price outlook, an update on the global trade wars, construction cost outlook, including labor costs, and risks that could potentially derail the near-term price and cost outlook.

  • 8:45 AM Breakfast and Registration
  • 9:00 AM Global Economic Outlook: Downshift or Downdraft?

    Presenter: John Mothersole, Director - Research, Pricing and Purchasing

    The world economy faces challenges that will test the durability of the expansion in 2020. Trade friction, populist politics, high debt levels and little policy flexibility all raise questions about how much longer this expansion can go on. The silver lining: inflation looks dormant with conditions in supply chains favoring buyers.

  • 9:45 AM Tariff update: Will there be relief in 2020?

    Presenter: John Anton, Associate Director - Pricing and Purchasing

    Tariffs are inescapable in US business purchasing, and are moving into consumer markets. This session will look at what products are already covered, at what rate? What progress is being made in applying for exclusions on products such as valves and fittings? What is pending (like Section 232 on vehicles)? We will concentrate on the specifics, attempt to ignore the politics and discuss what is important to your daily purchasing decisions.

  • 10:15 AM Networking Break
  • 10:30 AM Steel: How to profit from the best market in years but also protect yourself from rapidly rising risk

    John Anton, Associate Director - Pricing and Purchasing
    Amanda Eglinton, Economics Associate Director, Pricing and Purchasing

    Steel has been a great buyers’ market in 2019 but prices cannot fall forever. Elevated iron ore prices are putting a floor under steel prices in China and sharply lower domestic prices in the United States are slowing the flow of imports, setting up the market for supply tightness later in the year and in early 2020. John Anton and Amanda Eglinton will discuss the causes of recent low prices, reasons for the 2020 price rebound, risks to consider and near-term buying advice for steel and pipe.

  • 11:30 AM Labor costs: Challenges and opportunites in 2020 for the oil and gas market

    Presenter: Emily Crowley, Principal Economist, Pricing and Purchasing

    Labor costs in O&G services are surging, however capital expenditures are beginning to slow as operators focus on controlling costs and boosting profits. On top of this, a slew of mergers has led to industry concentration and reduced negotiating power. We will discuss challenges and opportunities in the oil and gas sector labor market, focusing on labor cost risk for key occupations and regions over 2020.

  • 12:00 PM Lunch
  • 1:00 PM Nonferrous metals: Which metals are vulnerable for a price drop?

    John Anton, Associate Director - Pricing and Purchasing
    Amanda Eglinton, Economics Associate Director, Pricing and Purchasing

    Base metals have exhibited their characteristic volatility over the first half of 2019. While investors have become more pessimistic, fundamentals will ultimately dictate price direction and offer a varied picture of pricing over the near-term depending on the metal. Copper, moly and nickel all look to have price support, while ample supply make aluminum, chrome and tungsten look vulnerable. Finally, several metals – vanadium, cobalt and nickel – look ‘bubbly’. These differing conditions present challenges for category managers. We will review the factors governing price moves for each metal and provide specific buying recommendations.

  • 1:45 PM Machinery and equipment: Where will prices go now that metal costs have eased?

    Presenter: Thomas McCartin, Senior Economist, Pricing and Purchasing

    Machinery and equipment used in the oil and gas sector have faced significant upward pricing pressure from elevated input costs since early 2018. However, the effects have varied since categories are subject to different adjacent industries, supply chains, and international trade patterns. This presentation will focus on our latest pricing forecast, potential risks to the outlook, as well as the implications of diverging global demand and main industry players.

  • 2:30 PM Networking Break
  • 3:00 PM Plastics: Is it a buyer's market?

    Presenter: Ted Semesnyei, Senior Economist, Pricing and Purchasing Service, IHS Markit

    2019 has been a positive year for buyers. While we are describing conditions as good for buyers on a macro level, there are important distinctions when drilling down to the individual chemical and resin level. This presentation will delve into the outlook for major chemical and plastic markets such as ethylene and polypropylene, as well as key engineering plastics.

  • 3:45 PM Conclusions

    Presenter: John Mothersole, Director - Research, Pricing and Purchasing

    A review of the day's discussions with take aways and recommendations

Thursday,24 October 2019

  • 8:45 AM Day 2

    Experts from the IHS Markit Pricing and Purchasing Service have analyzed costs, prices, and wages for decades. Now they are sharing the frameworks that they have used to consistently out-forecast the market. This full-day event (breakfast and lunch included) includes breakout sessions with IHS Markit experts where you apply what you have learned and work with your own data and product categories.

  • 8:45 AM Breakfast and Registration
  • 9:00 AM Building Blocks

    During this session we will discuss the theory and techniques behind cost modeling.

  • 9:45 AM Manufacturing Cost Models

    This is an in-depth session where we will walk through building a manufacturing cost model from the beginning using publicly available sources.

  • 10:30 AM Break
  • 10:45 AM Manufacturing and Total Cost Models

    This session builds on the manufacturing cost model we estimated in the previous section. We will walk through how to incorporate indirect spend categories to get a more complete understanding of industry cost estimation.

  • 12:00 PM Lunch
  • 12:45 PM Should Cost Modeling

    Here we introduce the IHS Markit approach to should cost modeling using a blend of data sources to estimate a dollar-per-unit cost for a finished good.

  • 1:15 PM Breakout Session #1 - Cost Modeling

    Attendees will have 30 minutes to work on a cost model of their own with IHS Markit economists as a resource.

  • 1:45 PM Break
  • 2:00 PM Automate your buying process (Contracting/Budgeting)

    Price negotiation can be contentious. This session focuses on techniques to take tension out of negotiation. Here we discuss tying contract escalation to specific prices, and how Pricing and Purchasing data and tools can be used to facilitate the process.

  • 2:45 PM Finding savings with your cost model (Buying Decisions/Supply Chain)

    We often hear about prices going up, but rarely hear about prices coming down. In this session we will discuss the transmission of price movements from raw materials to finished goods, and suggest some techniques you can use to ensure you don't miss cost saving opportunities.

  • 3:30 PM Breakout Session #2 - Applied Price and Cost Analysis

    Learn how to apply the price and cost analysis techniques to your cost models and explore any specific questions

  • 4:00 PM Conclusions
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