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Economics and Country Risk Seminar Tokyo 2019

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Tuesday,03 September 2019

  • 1:00 PM Registration | 受付
  • 1:30 PM Welcome Remarks | 開会のご挨拶

    Sanjuro Takeuchi, Managing Director, Japan, IHS Markit | 竹内 三十郎(IHSマークイット日本、マネージング・ディレクター)

  • 1:40 PM The Global and APAC Outlook in 2019–20: Risks and opportunities | 2019年から2020年までの世界およびAPACの見通し:ビジネスチャンスとリスク

    Rajiv Biswas, Asia-Pacific Chief Economist, IHS Markit | IHSマークイット、アジア太平洋チーフエコノミスト


    This presentation will assess the global and APAC macroeconomic outlook, including US and eurozone growth prospects and the risk of a China economic slowdown. An assessment of the US-China trade and technology wars and spillover effects to other APAC economies will be presented. This session will also assess the growth opportunities and risk landscape in key APAC emerging markets in ASEAN and South Asia.

  • 2:25 PM Oil Markets: The impact of geopolitical risks | 原油市場:地政学リスクの影響

    Rachel Calvert, Associate Director, IHS Markit | IHSマークイット、アソシエート・ディレクター


    With US-Iran tensions escalating, geopolitical risks in the Middle East are again rising. Attacks on shipping in UAE territorial waters and drone strikes on Saudi oil pumping stations have added to regional strain. Meanwhile, the civil war in Libya is also adding to the risks of disruptions to Middle East oil exports.

  • 2:50 PM Refreshment Break | 休憩
  • 3:05 PM The Energy Transition: What does it mean for upstream? | エネルギーの転換:上流部門にとって何を意味するのか?

    Bob Fryklund, Chief Strategist Upstream, IHS Markit | ボブ・フライクランド(Bob Fryklund)、 IHSマークイット、上流部門担当チーフ・ストラテジスト

    1. 国際石油資本や国営石油会社の総合企業が支配するエネルギー会社
    2. 従来の探鉱開発会社

    - これが最後のリセットか、それとも別のサイクルに向けたリセットか?
    - 需要がピークになるのはいつか?そして、その影響は何か?
    - 米国はこの先何十年もの間、世界の石油市場を支配し続けるか?
    - どの戦略が正しいか?
    - 探鉱は再び回復するのか?

    The energy transition is accelerating, and companies are scrambling to position themselves to provide value to their shareholders.
    Shareholders and their values—and, consequently, traditional energy companies—are falling out of favor for both financial and social reasons.
    One might say the traditional E&P business is reaching mid-life and undergoing a major reset, as spending, number of companies, activity, and the workforce are all at new levels.
    E&P companies are reacting by fighting for basin commercial mastery and racing to the bottom on cost and the top on margin. As such, we are seeing several business models for energy companies taking shape:
    1. An energy company that is dominated by integrated companies, both majors and NOCs; and
    2. Traditional E&P companies

    Key questions:
    - Is the reset for good or just another cycle?
    - When will we see peak demand, and what are its implications?
    - Will the United States continue to dominate the global oil market for decades?
    - Which of the strategies will work?
    - Will we see exploration rebound?

  • 3:30 PM Impact of US-China Trade War on Asian Industry Sectors | アジアの産業部門に対する米中貿易戦争の影響

    Jonathan Ablett, Director of Economic Modelling, IHS Markit | IHSマークイット、経済モデリングディレクター


    The escalating US-China trade and technology war is creating spillover effects to the broader APAC region. The economic impacts will be assessed using the IHS Markit Global Link Model of the world economy to analyze the vulnerability of different industries to these trade shocks.

  • 4:10 PM Q&A | 質疑応答
  • 4:30 PM Closing Remarks | 閉会のご挨拶 
  • 4:35 PM Networking Reception | 懇親会
  • 6:00 PM Close | 閉会
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