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Tuesday,10 March 2020

  • 8:30 AM Welcome and Registration
  • 9:00 AM Evolving civil unrest risks

    Hugo Foster, Principal Analyst, Country Risk, Applied Intelligence, IHS Markit
    David Li, Senior Analyst, Country Risk Asia Pacific, IHS Markit
    Johanna Marris, Analyst, Country Risk, IHS Markit

    • Anatomy of a protest: Assessing and forecasting grievances, catalyst events, escalation pathways, and resolution
    • Evolving protest techniques and resultant damage and disruption trends
    • Case studies

    - Santiago
    - Hong Kong SAR

    • New functionality on our Connect platform: Enhanced incident data for strikes, riots, and civil commotion mapping and risk selection
  • 9:45 AM Political risk and capital controls in 2020

    Theophilus Acheampong, Senior Analyst, Country Risk, IHS Markit
    Carlos Caicedo, Associate Director, Country Risk, IHS Markit

    • Poor management of public finances during past periods of growth has left governments in Latin America and Sub-Saharan Africa at an increased risk of financial distress
    • IHS Markit identifies several countries showing early-stage indicators of financial distress, implying an increased risk of foreign exchange shortages and resulting need to impose capital controls during 2020
    • The key political drivers and impacts of capital controls
    • Proposed changes in the IMF's thinking on capital flow management, which suggest capital controls should be applied in "normal times" as well as directly in response to crises
  • 10:15 AM Coffee Break
  • 10:45 AM Key political violence forecasts for the MENA region

    Ege Seckin, Senior Analyst, Middle East and North Africa, IHS Markit

    • Iran: Likely direct actions by the Iranian military, asymmetric options by proxy terrorist organisations, and outlook for the nuclear programme
    • Specific energy, desalination, maritime, and aviation assets at heightened risk
    • Renewed Shia and ISIS insurgency in Iraq and implications for cargo and energy
    • Growing competition in the eastern Mediterranean, and implications for security and energy in Libya, Tunisia, and Cyprus
  • 11:30 AM Networking/Close
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