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1 Day series | Petrochemical Industry Fundamentals | Petrochemical Price Forecasting Techniques | Commercial Strategies for Petrochemical Industry

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Tuesday,20 August 2019

  • Petrochemical Industry Fundamentals
  • Morning Session


    Petrochemical Feedstocks

    • Natural Gas
    • Natural Gas Liquids (NGLs)
    • Crude Oil Fractions, especially naphtha, coal and renewables

    Petrochemical Building Blocks

    • Aromatics: Benzene, Toluene, Xylenes
    • Light Olefins: Ethylene, Propylene, Butadiene


  • Afternoon Session

    Heavy Olefins: Butadiene, Butylenes

    Exploring Petrochemical Value Chains

    • Polyethylenes (LDPE, LLDPE, HDPE)
    • Polypropylene (PP)
    • Polystyrene (GPPS, HIPS, EPS)
    • Chlor-alkali/Vinyls
    • Synthesis Gas (Syngas) – Ammonia and Methanol

    Global Markets

    • Market Drivers
    • Demand and Consumption Patterns
    • Outlook for Investment


Wednesday,21 August 2019

  • Petrochemical Price Forecasting Techniques
  • Morning session


    Price definitions and forecasting techniques

    • Short, medium and long term prices

    Production cost analysis

    • Underlying energy and feedstock values
    • Feedstock, variable & fixed cost, co-product credits
    • Alternative values
    • Production cost models

    Case Study 1: Cash cost of production

    Inherent margin analysis

    • Supply/demand balances
    • Impact of operating rates
    • Market momentum and psychology
    • Return on investments
  • Afternoon session

    Price forecasting techniques

    • Cost plus margin
    • Regional relationships and arbitrage
    • Price netbacks

    Case Study 2: Hands on supply-demand forecasting and price outlook analysis

  • Close

Thursday,22 August 2019

  • Commercial Strategies for Petrochemical Industry
  • Morning session


    An overview of commercial lexicons

    Commercial Optimization along value chains

    • Case Study 1: I smell an optimization opportunity

    Pricing concepts

    • Floor, Ceiling and Market concepts
    • Netback analysis
    • Case Study 2: Where do we sell the spot cargo to?

    Marketing vs trading

    • Case Study 3: Tender time

    Lunch Break

  • Afternoon session
    • Evolution of Trading Centers – Oil and Petrochemicals
    • Commercial Risk elements
    • Market risks
    • Case study 4: Selling at fixed or formulae prices
    • Counterparty
    • Credit
    • Operations
    • Case study 5: Implications of missing contractual loading laycan
    • Regulatory/Political
    • Hedging concepts
    • Case study 6: Taking advantage of market contango


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