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Perspectives

U.S. Metro Job Recovery Will Take a While

Published: 24 August 2009
Most major metropolitan areas will need years to regain the jobs lost during this recession.

Although there are increasing signs that the economy has bottomed out, IHS Global Insight's summer forecast shows that a job recovery is still a ways off for most of the nation's metropolitan areas. Of the 363 metros in the country, just one—McAllen, Texas—will add more than 1,000 jobs this year. While most areas will begin increasing employment again in 2010, it will be tepid, with only 118 metros crossing the 1,000-job mark next year. Solid gains will not return for the majority of the country until 2011.

The slow recovery means it will be well into next decade before most areas regain the jobs lost during this recession. Not surprisingly, auto-ravaged Detroit will see the largest employment decline (more than 15%) among major metro areas, and will need years, if not decades, to recover. The housing-bust metros of the Sunbelt (Phoenix, Arizona; Riverside, California; Tampa, Florida) will all suffer steep drops and not return to pre-recession levels until 2013 or later. At the other end of the spectrum, Texas metros and Washington, DC, have avoided the brunt of this downturn and, thus, will be among the first to recover.

Outlook for Nation's 50 Largest Metro Areas

 

Job Loss by End of Recession

Return to Pre-
Recession Job Level

 

Thous.

%

Detroit-Warren-Livonia, MI

-313.4

-15.3

After 2015

Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ

-207.2

-10.8

2014

Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA

-134.4

-10.5

2013

Las Vegas-Paradise, NV

-82.9

-8.9

2013

Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL

-100.7

-7.9

2013

Sacramento--Arden-Arcade--Roseville, CA

-71.7

-7.9

2013

Cleveland-Elyria-Mentor, OH

-80.9

-7.5

After 2015

Orlando-Kissimmee, FL

-77.5

-7.1

2012

Charlotte-Gastonia-Concord, NC-SC

-62.0

-7.1

2012

Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta, GA

-171.5

-7.0

2012

Providence-New Bedford-Fall River, RI-MA

-50.4

-7.0

After 2015

Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana, CA

-381.4

-6.8

2014

Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL

-156.6

-6.5

2013

Portland-Vancouver-Beaverton, OR-WA

-67.9

-6.5

2013

Jacksonville, FL

-40.5

-6.4

2012

Milwaukee-Waukesha-West Allis, WI

-52.1

-6.1

After 2015

San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA

-54.3

-5.9

2012

San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA

-119.0

-5.8

2012

San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, CA

-74.3

-5.7

2012

Nashville-Davidson--Murfreesboro--Franklin, TN

-44.0

-5.7

2012

Chicago-Naperville-Joliet, IL-IN-WI

-256.3

-5.6

2014

Cincinnati-Middletown, OH-KY-IN

-56.1

-5.3

2014

Birmingham-Hoover, AL

-27.2

-5.1

2013

Hartford-West Hartford-East Hartford, CT

-32.4

-5.0

After 2015

Louisville-Jefferson County, KY-IN

-31.4

-5.0

2013

Richmond, VA

-30.9

-4.9

2012

St. Louis, MO-IL

-64.7

-4.7

2014

Denver-Aurora-Broomfield, CO

-59.4

-4.7

2012

Buffalo-Niagara Falls, NY

-25.6

-4.6

2014

Indianapolis-Carmel, IN

-41.3

-4.5

2012

Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI

-76.4

-4.3

2013

Memphis, TN-MS-AR

-26.8

-4.2

2012

Raleigh-Cary, NC

-21.9

-4.2

2011

Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA

-72.7

-4.1

2012

Boston-Cambridge-Quincy, MA-NH

-97.1

-3.9

2012

New York-No. New Jersey-Long Island, NY-NJ-PA

-324.6

-3.8

2012

Salt Lake City, UT

-24.6

-3.8

2011

Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD

-100.9

-3.6

2012

Pittsburgh, PA

-40.0

-3.5

2013

Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown, TX

-86.4

-3.3

2011

Baltimore-Towson, MD

-42.7

-3.2

2012

New Orleans-Metairie-Kenner, LA

-15.6

-2.9

2012

Kansas City, MO-KS

-27.4

-2.7

2011

Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC

-19.5

-2.5

2011

Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX

-72.7

-2.4

2011

Columbus, OH

-22.9

-2.4

2012

Oklahoma City, OK

-13.8

-2.4

2011

Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV

-56.5

-1.9

2011

San Antonio, TX

-9.3

-1.1

2010

Austin-Round Rock, TX

-5.7

-0.7

2010

All Metro Areas

-5419.3

-4.6

2012

Note: Pre-recession job level is defined as the highest employment level reached during 2005-08, except in New Orleans, which is analyzed post-Katrina.

Source: IHS Global Insight.

by U.S. Regional staff
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