How Accurate Were We?

The top-10 predictions for 2018, shown below, were published in December 2017. The text in italics describes what actually happened.

The global economy finally broke out of the doldrums in 2017, putting to rest persistent fears of "secular stagnation." The best performance since 2011 was the result of more rapid growth in the US, Eurozone, and Japanese economies. Emerging markets also contributed to faster global growth, as some of the worst-hit economies (e.g., Brazil and Russia) emerged from recession. The stage is set for sustained solid growth in the world economy in 2018. IHS Markit expects global growth of 3.2% in 2018, matching the growth rate of 2017 and well above the 2.5% rate of 2016. That said, the composition of growth is likely to change. The US economy will see a further pickup in growth, with or without a tax cut. On the other hand, growth in the Eurozone is predicted to have peaked in 2017. Similarly, the recent Japanese growth spurt looks set to fade. At the same time, the Chinese economy's gradual deceleration is expected to continue. The good news is that the recovery in the emerging world will likely be sustained and pick up a little steam. Unfortunately, there is no shortage of risks facing the world economy, but most are low-level threats. The most worrisome are policy mistakes either in the United States (e.g., a fiscal shock or a trade war) or China (e.g., a mismanaged deleveraging).

What actually happened:World growth in 2018 is estimated to have been 3.2%, compared with 3.3% in 2017. Eight out of ten predictions by IHS Market for 2018 were on the mark, and one was partially on the mark.

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How Accurate Were We?

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