Compliance+ Rolling Short-term Forecast

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Complying with CO2 and emissions regulations in Europe can be challenging. To assist automotive manufacturers and suppliers make informed decisions under the legislative framework with increased complexity and stringency, IHS Markit is introducing the Compliance+ Rolling Short-term Forecast to monitor and forecast CO2 compliance levels as well as the car manufacturers' gap-to-target.

Short-term CO2 compliance tracking is critical when the market experiences significant changes in regulatory requirements and/or market demand uncertainties (e.g. COVID-19). To track such changes and fluctuations, we will soon offer an extended data service under the Compliance+ module which reflects actual market performance and forecasts for CO2 compliance for the current year and next year.

The new Compliance+ Rolling Short-term Forecast, expected to launch in October 2020, adjusts the IHS Markit baseline sales forecast used in Compliance+ using actual market share (derived from monthly registration data of EU28 market ) to give more realistic powertrain and technology share at the nameplate level based on monthly changes.

Offerings:

  • Scope: EU28 market, compliance position updated monthly on rolling basis
  • Timeframe: Forecast for current year and next year (e.g. CY 2020 and CY 2021 forecasts for all releases in 2020 (i.e.: From March 2021 it will be 2021 and 2022)).
  • Data versions: Each release provides three sets of forecast data:
    1. latest baseline forecast which is updated every 6 months (May & November)
    2. latest available monthly forecast which reflects up-to-date available fuel type and powertrain design share actualized based on registration, and
    3. previous monthly forecast for incremental comparison.
  • Fleet-level data: CO2 compliance performance, CO2 target, excess CO2 emissions, and excess emission premiums for each manufacturer/pool.
  • Vehicle-level data: Sales nameplate prognosis by propulsion system design and fuel type.
  • All CO2 compliance performance reported is accounted for super credit, cap, and respective multipliers