Freight Rate Forecast - Dry Bulk Market Briefing 2021

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未来几年干散货市场将保持稳定,而随着疫苗接种推进,运费可能面临调整

干散货市场处于长期复苏周期,船队发展可控、需求增长稳定,而随着疫苗普及、疫情影响减轻,运费可能面临调整。

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图表:在煤炭和小宗散货贸易复苏的推动下,预计 2021 年干散货需求将增长 3.2%

在FRF 干散货船利用率率指数 - 季度供需展望中 - IHS Markit 预测,2021 年全球干散货贸易将增长 3.2%,主要来自煤炭 (4.4%) 和小宗散货贸易(8.0%)的推动。2022 年和 2023 年将继续分别增长 5.8% 和 2.7%,这主要来自与全球经济复苏相关的工业材料和农产品需求支撑,而干散货船队运力在未来三年内将保持 2-3% 的增长。

在受疫情支配的环境下,家庭消费支出已从服务转向以商品为主,包括网上购物。这推动了全球贸易繁荣,导致集装箱短缺,并将集装箱运费和与之相关的带卸货装置的干散货船回程运费水平推到历史高点。然而,随着疫苗大规模接种和 COVID-19 封锁措施放松,运费的强势局面可能会面临调整。全球经济复苏带来的整体消费和能源需求的预期增长,可能会被包括港口等待时间减少、服务业消费恢复从而减少实物贸易、来自中国大陆的刺激下降,以及再次重视以天然气和可再生能源替代煤和铁矿石上的环境政策等因素削弱。

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